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You can run a simulator for a few thousand iterations and it'll get to 33/66. It is the nature of statistics that if you have a relatively small sample size it won't necessarily be exactly what you'd expect. After all if you ran the test once you'd have a 100% chance either way, based off that...

Haha, thanks for the avatar. If I ever set up a place where anyone can subscribe to my personality cult, I'll be sure to link it here. I'll try and post any relevant links for space travel in this thread though. It is something I've had a passion for since I was a kid.

The comparison was a constant acceleration ship overtaking something launched 36 years ago in 2.8 years... and that at 1/1000 gee acceleration. The VASIMIR is right around 1/100 gee acceleration. Any constant acceleration technology we get to work will open up the entire solar system. Some...

Really disliking the low level items. Forcing you to have a deck with crap or equipping items that have cards that are traps is ridiculous.

Get a high end pair of headphones. Listen to samples. If you can tell a difference, download the best quality, because eventually your surround system will get to a point where you can hear a difference, assuming a high-end entertainment center is something you care about and will keep upgrading.

The only linked simulator covers all three scenarios and there are only three. If you pick the car, switching loses. If you pickedeithergoat, switching wins. This really is not at all complicated. If you want "real data" you can go pirate the Mythbusters episode. They did the stupidly simple...

Solar panel efficiency is improving rather dramatically, but you are correct that going past Jupiter it'd be more practical to go nuclear for the power source. Or strategically station a number of giant arrays with lasers at various points in the solar system and focus the beam to a receiver on...

No idea about the VASIMIR specifically, that information hasn't been released. At best a theoretical number could be derived from some of their tests with different type of gases, but those were done more than five years ago and apparently marked increases in efficiency have been made. The term...

In fairness to Kuriin, I know a lot of "vegetarians" who are actually pescatarians, but refuse to use that term for whatever reason. So it is the first thing I'd ask too.

Fuel isn't an issue for constant boost technologies, that is the point. Chemical rockets are fuel+reaction mass, rolled into one. Ion engines use solar power for fuel but still need to carry a reaction mass to ionize. But this makes a massive difference. You could carry enough reaction mass for...

They calculated where each of them would be. Because they wanted pictures, because they used the gravity of said objects for acceleration, etc. Space is basically empty. To say that this was computationally difficult in an era where people were still regularly using slide rules is to vastly...

It isn't a matching velocity, you'd fly right past Voyager once you caught up to it. If you wanted to match velocities you'd need to flip over and accelerate in the other direction to slow down at some point. Add ~14 months for that. The key point is you are constantly accelerating and nothing...

2.8 years at 1/1000 gee acceleration. Quick search didn't show me numbers for where it'll be in three years, but it is at 125 A.U. so I just rounded up to 130 A.U., which is actually too much, so a little less. Time on Earth: 2.8227 years Time on Ship: 2.8222 years Speed...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supertaster

Again, not sure you understand what "debatable" means. Not obvious might mean it requires explanation. Said explanation was given, exhaustively. It wasn't obvious that the reason corn kernels are different colors is because of jumping genes. That required forty years of research and, outside of...

Actually it is famously not obvious. But it still has a right answer.

I'm not sure you understand what "debatable" means. Someone not understanding something doesn't make it debatable, it makes them ignorant (or stupid). Refusing to understand makes them obstinately ignorant (or obstinately stupid). The facts don't change because they don't understand them. Debate...

You think it is debatable because people are emotional? How does that factor into math?

I'll make you the offer I made Ara. Find someone with a PhD in stats who disagrees. If you want to make an appeal to authority argument, find an authority.

No. A number of laymen have disputed it as far back as 1975, they were arguing with a professor at Berkley. Would you care to guess who was right? There is no one with a degree in stats, at any level, who disputes the answer. Curiously, and this is new to me, Monty Hall apparently wrote to...

I don't think he'd mind me posting this. From Robert Heinlein's Expanded Universe. Sorry for the formatting. Ah, but not explored by men - and the distances are so great. Surely they are. . . by free - fall orbits, which is all that we have been using. But there are numerous proposals (and...

But he can only eliminate a box youdidn't pick. By constraining his choices, you've altered the scenario. Your initial pick matters. Switchingalwaysreverses the outcome. If you picked a car initially, you get a goat. If you picked a goat initially, you get the car. Now if switching always...

The important thing to remember is that you're always accelerating with an Ion drive. It doesn't matter that it is accelerating you at 1/1000 gravity, after a year of that you're at 69,2742 mph if you start from zero (you're not starting from zero). Constant acceleration makes a big difference...

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/pro...y-hall-problem The number of resources dedicated to explaining this problem is astounding. How is that hunt for the PhD in stats who can't do stats going Ara?

http://www.chicagoreader.com/chicago...ent?oid=876986 http://www.jeffblankenburg.com/2009/...y-youre-wrong/ http://betterexplained.com/articles/...-hall-problem/

Find me one person who has a PhD in statistics and disputes the answer to the basic Monty Hall problem, correctly stated.

Out of curiosity Ara, do you often argue with experts in their field? Like if a physicist explained to you that the reason things heat up upon entry into the atmosphere isn't because of friction, but because of the compression of a column of air, would you argue with him? I'm wondering if the...

I think the fact that Ara compared the problem to the distraction in a magic trick pretty much lets us know what level he puts mathematical proofs on....

Your first choice matters because what you already picked is still on the table. You either picked the goat or the car on your first pick. You cannot possibly argue that you didn't pick either a goat or the car. If you picked a goat, switching wins. If you did not pick a goat, switching loses...

Are you actually asking? I'd be happy to explain it if you're not going to be obstinate about it.

Those aren't the options. Really. Go write down each possible scenario. 2/3 of them result in winning if you switch. The initial choice matters.

You realize the simulator is simulating the scenario presented, right? You can't ignore details of the scenario and pretend your answer makes any sense to the scenario.

Because I agree with the Wikipedia article, which happens to be correct, I must be parroting it without understanding it? Are you saying that simply because you don't understand it or...? I mean clearly this makes no sense to you. But, again, iteratively proving it to yourself is easy. Go...

Because it did. The host's behavior matters, you don't seem to be understanding that. It is an essential part of the problem. It isn't some magical coincidence that if you switch, you win precisely 2/3 of the time. If you were right, it'd come out 50/50. It doesn't, so you aren't.

You're really not understanding the role the host is playing. Which is the most common mistake in failing to understand the Monty Hall problem. This is really easy to demonstrate iteratively, just go play each scenario. You won't get 50/50. It'll be 66/33...

There are two bad boxes and one good box. If you pick the bad box (2/3 chance) the host opens the other bad box. There is now a bad box (which you picked already) and a good box. Switch wins in this scenario. You pick the good box. Host opens either bad box. Leaving one good box which you picked...

I think it is age dependent. Hanging out with a lot of college girls (I teach ballroom dance at a few local colleges) they expect men to be able to cook something. That is sexy to them. Older people (~27+) not so much. Which, if you track it, roughly corresponds pretty closely to when Food TV...

It has an overarching story that slowly builds in each episode and finishes with the movie. Granted not every episode is solely dedicated to it, there is also a certain amount of fleshing out the world, character back story, etc., but I consider those part of being a serial. So long as each...

Did I read that right that Paragon levels on console are account wide? Sign me up for that on PC, Christ.