38 studios Auction Nov 14th and 15th.

Quaid_sl said:

The fact that you totally ignore potential revenue from box sales? Your ridiculously low estimates of sub numbers? Your over the top $6 per person per month estimate for hosting and infrastructure?

Click to expand...

Box sales wouldn't have saved them either.

Quaid_sl said:

The fact that you totally ignore potential revenue from box sales? Your ridiculously low estimates of sub numbers? Your over the top $6 per person per month estimate for hosting and infrastructure?

Click to expand...

I didn't ignore box sales, I included that in the post you apparently didn't read. Box sales would bring in about $30M net revenue which is a little more than the $25M extra money the state would have to pay, so that is essentially even. The sub and churn estimates I used to generate my numbers were more than double a realistic number. Do you even know how many subscribers a AAA MMORPG retains based on box sales? I can assure you it is a lot lower than the estimates I used, much lower. And, as to hosting/infrastructure costs, it is clear you've never priced out such a thing for even a small game let alone a AAA WoW style MMORPG and you are the one talking out of your backside.

Denaut_sl said:

I didn't ignore box sales, I included that in the post you apparently didn't read. Box sales would bring in about $30M net revenue which is a little more than the $25M extra money the state would have to pay, so that is essentially even. The sub and churn estimates I used to generate my numbers were more than double a realistic number. Do you even know how many subscribers a AAA MMORPG retains based on box sales? I can assure you it is a lot lower than the estimates I used, much lower. And, as to hosting/infrastructure costs, it is clear you've never priced out such a thing for even a small game let alone a AAA WoW style MMORPG and you are the one talking out of your backside.

Click to expand...

Your numbers are astronomically wrong:World of Warcraft Cost Blizzard $200M in Upkeep Since 2004

In four years, with a player base of 10million people, WoW cost $200 million in upkeep. That's a little over $4 million/month, or, less than $0.50 per subbed player per month. Oh, and that's including CS, payroll, and hardware updates.

Jesus now I'm looking at your labour cost numbers and those ae totally batshit insane too. 200 people making an average salary of $125,000/year? Come the fuck on.

Your values are totally absurd, and are skewed to prove your point. You could at least attempt to be accurate when talking down to someone like you have a clue.

Average 2012 US dev salary $84,000 - GameSpot.com

Quaid_sl said:

Your numbers are astronomically wrong:World of Warcraft Cost Blizzard $200M in Upkeep Since 2004

In four years, with a player base of 10million people, WoW cost $200 million in upkeep. That's a little over $4 million/month, or, less than $0.50 per subbed player per month. Oh, and that's including CS, payroll, and hardware updates.

Click to expand...

Blizzard has massive scale advantages and cost savings for doing most of the work themselves. 38 would have to pay for all of that managed hosting and up-time guarantees out of pocket for a much smaller pool of people. It is significantly more expensive.

Denaut_sl said:

Box sales would bring in about $30M net revenue which is a little more than the $25M extra money the state would have to pay, so that is essentially even.

Click to expand...

Why are we assuming this game is going to sell less boxes than KOA:R?

1.2million x $60 is a hell of a lot more than $30M.

Denaut_sl said:

Blizzard has massive scale advantages and cost savings for doing most of the work themselves. 38 would have to pay for all of that managed hosting and up-time guarantees out of pocket for a much smaller pool of people. It is significantly more expensive.

Click to expand...

Fair enough. Maybe 38S would have spent DOUBLE on all those costs (see, I can pull numbers from a hat too).... So $1 out of every $15 sub... Still way off

Quaid_sl said:

Jesus now I'm looking at your labour cost numbers and those ae totally batshit insane too. 200 people making an average salary of $125,000/year? Come the fuck on.

Your values are totally absurd, and are skewed to prove your point. You could at least attempt to be accurate when talking down to someone like you have a clue.

Average 2012 US dev salary $84,000 - GameSpot.com

Click to expand...

Umm... people cost more than you pay them... you know that right? I mean, their pay is most of what they cost but there are other things that cost money like... payroll taxes, health insurance, electricity, rent, computers, software, desks, chairs, free soda and so on.

The average cost, per employee per month, in the games industry is between $10k-$11k depending on where the studio is located (the coasts are more expensive). This isn't a disputable thing, this is what publishers all over the industry use as a rough estimate. Not only that, but 38 operated with 200 people for about 2 years on $50 million... which is right dead center in that average estimate. Can you even read?

You other guys that follow the forums more than I do, tell me am I just wasting my time being trolled here? Is he worth any more of my time? Should I just slap him on ignore?

Cool we're lumping utilities and physical assets into labor costs now too...

I'm gonna quit talking to you now before you try to pull any more voodoo math nonsense on me.

both of you are retarded, for 4 years curt tried to get dozens of investors to bridge fund 38S from KOA1 to Copernicus launch, and every single one of them passed. Its pretty safe to assume none of them could work out a way to keep the company going in any form, publish the game, and turn a profit. EA also passed on publishing KOA2 and Copernicus before the entire shitstorm went down, and they will publish any piece of shit so yeah, retarded to keep arguing the point.

btw KOA1 needed to sell 3m copies apparently to turn a profit, running numbers backwards it means EA spent something closer to $60m on KOA1 than $20m. Remember, EA funded the development of KOA1, although dunno if that includes the money 38S spent on buying Big Huge Games or not.

spronk_sl said:

both of you are retarded, for 4 years curt tried to get dozens of investors to bridge fund 38S from KOA1 to Copernicus launch, and every single one of them passed. Its pretty safe to assume none of them could work out a way to keep the company going in any form, publish the game, and turn a profit. EA also passed on publishing KOA2 and Copernicus before the entire shitstorm went down, and they will publish any piece of shit so yeah, retarded to keep arguing the point.

btw KOA1 needed to sell 3m copies apparently to turn a profit, running numbers backwards it means EA spent something closer to $60m on KOA1 than $20m. Remember, EA funded the development of KOA1, although dunno if that includes the money 38S spent on buying Big Huge Games or not.

Click to expand...

Well yes, that is my point. Even ignoring that KoA lost money (which I think was mostly EA's anyway), there is no way to make the numbers for the MMORPG work out. That extra 25 million over the already spent 50 million wouldn't have helped much and that money is better spent elsewhere. Either on paying down the loan itself or being used in other areas of the state budget.

Quaid_sl said:

Why are we assuming this game is going to sell less boxes than KOA:R?

1.2million x $60 is a hell of a lot more than $30M.

Click to expand...

You realize that game developers get less than half of what the retail price is for a game, right? Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if it was less than a third. The retailer takes a huge cut, there's distribution costs, they'd probably have needed publisher who would also take some, on and on it goes.

Mick_sl said:

The MMO was suppose to be free client with no subscription fees.

Click to expand...

True. I was using a sub based monetization scheme with good subscriber numbers to give 38 the benefit of the doubt. Believe it or not if you can sustain 100k+ subscribers you would probably make more money than a free to play model on an expensive AAA MMORPG. It is also easier to make estimates because the numbers fluctuate wildly in FTP dependent on all sorts of factors.

Eomer_sl said:

You realize that game developers get less than half of what the retail price is for a game, right? Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if it was less than a third. The retailer takes a huge cut, there's distribution costs, they'd probably have needed publisher who would also take some, on and on it goes.

Click to expand...

I never said all $60 of a box sale was profit. We've been speaking in terms of revenue this whole time.

Quaid_sl said:

Why are we assuming this game is going to sell less boxes than KOA:R?

1.2million x $60 is a hell of a lot more than $30M.

Click to expand...

Right here you just implied that all $60 would go to 38. People are going to assume that's what you mean when you type it in this fashion.

Burnesto_sl said:

Right here you just implied that all $60 would go to 38. People are going to assume that's what you mean when you type it in this fashion.

Click to expand...

Kk, well, we were talking about revenue since making assumptions about cost and profit values would just be pulling numbers out of thin air (see: above).

No, we were talking about how ridiculous it is to think they would make their money back from box sales.

Going by gross instead of net makes absolutely no sense.

Ambiturner_sl said:

No, we were talking about how ridiculous it is to think they would make their money back from box sales.

Going by gross instead of net makes absolutely no sense.

Click to expand...

What this guy said. Why look at gross revenue when we were talking about how much money the game was taking to make in the first place?

Denault_sl said:

You other guys that follow the forums more than I do, tell me am I just wasting my time being trolled here? Is he worth any more of my time? Should I just slap him on ignore?

Click to expand...

Not sure what his deal is, but he's said quite a few dumb things these last few pages. Your numbers were all probably in the ballpark, even if they were off by +/- 20%. There's only a couple people in this thread who seem to think that any investor in their right mind took at look at 38 Studios and was like "oh fuck yeah, good deal!" The studio probably needed another 30-50 million just to finish the game, let alone initial and ongoing infrastructure costs.

Quaid_sl said:

Why are we assuming this game is going to sell less boxes than KOA:R?

1.2million x $60 is a hell of a lot more than $30M.

Click to expand...

The makers of the game only see 25-30% of box price. Say, $22MM to be generous.