Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies
- Thread starter Tripamang
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Oblio
Utah
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I am down a lot more than I would like to be as I made a large impulse buy on 12/31. But like you said it is only a loss if I sell. I have no plans to sell, so I'm have no real loss, yet.Clearly its getting to be a good time to buy more than usual.Rajaah you are trading emotionally. Just sit on it. Unless you for some reason need the cash you never actually lose money until you sell.
This is not a hard concept.
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Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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You'll be a bag holder about exactly as long as you'll be a bag holder with BTC... Maybe less time if institutions keep valuing ETH above BTC as they have been.
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My problem: I want to buy a token at this low USD price with BTC but the entire market is down so BTC is down with it, making it not much of a bargain.
Solution: I borrowed against my BTC using decentralized on-chain smart contracts to get some USD stablecoin which I used to buy the token, which I will pay back later after BTC rises; thereby allowing me to buy the token at the current price with BTC's future price. Fun.
Solution: I borrowed against my BTC using decentralized on-chain smart contracts to get some USD stablecoin which I used to buy the token, which I will pay back later after BTC rises; thereby allowing me to buy the token at the current price with BTC's future price. Fun.
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Rajaah
Honorable Member
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Clearly its getting to be a good time to buy more than usual.
This is not a hard concept.
You never lose money until you sell, but you lose time by staying in something that isn't working. Over the 4 months or so that I sat in SHIB while it lost value, I could have been trading in various other things that were all gaining value.
Also I'm trading pretty emotionlessly. Weirdly emotionlessly. I should be way more upset about the losses but I feel nothing. Maybe it's some sort of psychological defense mechanism, or maybe it's because I'm still ahead of where I started and looking ahead over the next few years.
Looks like LLR had the right idea about Eth supports, so I'm glad I jumped out when I did. Too bad it didn't help the market, but good for my re-entry. I'll get back in at a lower level, or switch to MATIC which is something I continuously regret getting out of since it made me a lot last year. Just need to get into something at a low level, it's a golden opportunity.
I thought about setting a MATIC buy at 1.40 yesterday, too. Not that it would have fired on this 1.42 anyway though. I notice Ethereum (and probably everything else) took a steep dive at the same time here. MATIC has held far more resiliently this evening than ETH, though, which fell back to the dive-level several times since then while MATIC as you can see didn't.
Trading is much, much harder than it looks. You can't get good at it without painful lessons. It can't be taught. To win, you have to guess right twice and earn enough to absorb fees and taxes to be worth the trouble; and you have to significantly beat what you would have made just from holding BTC instead. The shorter the time frame, the harder it is. I think the actual number of really successful traders is quite small and they're probably sociopathic. The smartest guys just make their own exchanges and entice fools to waste their money on there instead. (e.g. Bitmex)
Generally I just wait for those few times a year moments where the price spikes up or down so much that the risk is low; then I enter a position small enough that I can sleep on it. Often I will break up the trades into smaller ones as the price moves as a way to hedge. Unfortunately I'm so timid that my trades must be small and infrequent even when I usually win.
Generally I just wait for those few times a year moments where the price spikes up or down so much that the risk is low; then I enter a position small enough that I can sleep on it. Often I will break up the trades into smaller ones as the price moves as a way to hedge. Unfortunately I'm so timid that my trades must be small and infrequent even when I usually win.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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...right as the Fed floats the idea of their own cryptocurrency.
Not that this hasn't been expected (and talked about in this thread) for several years.
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Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Friendly reminder that whatever crypto does this weekend, it's going to react strongly to whatever the stock market does on Monday.
Right. The way I see it there three "issues" that have been looming above crypto for a long time. Each one of these issues will either be resolved and crypto will continue to progress, or it will kill crypto as we know it.
The three main issues are:
1. Government regulation (the current issue)
2. The "Tether problem" (unresolved)
3. The question of whether crypto can actually be functional and useful in a true mass-adoption situation- i.e. does the tech actually walk the walk (unresolved)
Each of these three issues are going to cause a big dip in the crypto market. Even if the issue ends up getting resolved and crypto survives, enough investors will be spooked that they sell and we see demand plummet. This means even the process of resolving these issues will likely cause a crash or dip in the crypto market. IF you believe crypto will survive and ultimately prevail (Web3 for ETH, BTC as the new global currency- or even just the preferred store of value) then you might be smart to keep your powder dry until one of these events occurs so you can take advantage of it.
Right. The way I see it there three "issues" that have been looming above crypto for a long time. Each one of these issues will either be resolved and crypto will continue to progress, or it will kill crypto as we know it.
The three main issues are:
1. Government regulation (the current issue)
2. The "Tether problem" (unresolved)
3. The question of whether crypto can actually be functional and useful in a true mass-adoption situation- i.e. does the tech actually walk the walk (unresolved)
Each of these three issues are going to cause a big dip in the crypto market. Even if the issue ends up getting resolved and crypto survives, enough investors will be spooked that they sell and we see demand plummet. This means even the process of resolving these issues will likely cause a crash or dip in the crypto market. IF you believe crypto will survive and ultimately prevail (Web3 for ETH, BTC as the new global currency- or even just the preferred store of value) then you might be smart to keep your powder dry until one of these events occurs so you can take advantage of it.
Rajaah
Honorable Member
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In the immortal words of Scott Pilgrim, "now I'm sad!"
You make some sound points here though. Looks like some rocky days are ahead. I still fully believe that by 2024/2025 we're going to see a price surge unlike any before following the next Bitcoin halving. It'd be nice if we got the normal winter spikes again in late 2022 and late 2023 as well. However if the current government is gonna declare war on this market, it might end up being a mess.
What I wouldn't give to go back to October with 4x what I have now and just "keep the powder dry" for a while.
Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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FWIW I tend to agree that the crypto space will ultimately emerge intact (though probably changed) on the other side of these three issues. Your timeline of 2024 or 2025 might even be right.
Also the "rocky days ahead" aren't necessarily a bad thing if you change your perspective. They are just opportunities to buy into the space while the biggest future gains can still be made.
Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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I don't see a lot of government regulation coming in the crypto space in the US, aside from making sure people pay taxes on their profits which is not new regulation, just enforcing existing law.
This shit is going to zero if it doesn't start obeying the laws of thermodynamics.
Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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I would think that a technology which breaks the laws of thermodynamics would be worth quite a bit
Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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No, it breaks the laws of economics by being purposefully thermodynamically inefficient.
Remember that economics is the study of efficiency, while finance is the study of money.
Real-world economies cannot sustain activities that are this inefficient with regards to the value produced for the energy required.
Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Tmac
Adventurer
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A book I read recently mentioned the numbers, but I don't remember exactly. I think the number is like 16% of traders beat the average, but only like 1% beat the average after taxes and fees.
Oh, so bitcoin is 'inefficient', but Blackrock buying up all the houses thereby pricing out an entire generation from home ownership and goldbugs digging massive pits for useless shiny rocks to use as stores of value is just fine, says the know-it-alls.
The US dollar would be worth jack and shit without the trillion dollar a year military and oil deals with psychopathic Arab despots. Why do people think that securing trillions of dollars of crypto assets in a decentralized network would use as much energy as a centralized data center? That's terribly ignorant. The energy use provides the protection to the network: any attack must spend over that amount of energy to succeed. If the energy use was too low, then a bad actor could take over and double spend by temporarily using a large amount of energy. Bitcoin's security is currently higher than it needs to be, but there is no way to know how exactly where the 'good enough' point is (because it's decentralized with no way to bar access) let alone plan in advance or predict the adoption rate. The network schedules a periodic reduction of energy used every 4 years by reducing the mining subsidy, meaning the energy used by the network will likely peak this decade before permanently declining. Furthermore the energy use is a non-issue if it does not pollute, and it's currently powered by about 58.5% sustainable energy and increasing. (bitcoin mining council estimate)
The US dollar would be worth jack and shit without the trillion dollar a year military and oil deals with psychopathic Arab despots. Why do people think that securing trillions of dollars of crypto assets in a decentralized network would use as much energy as a centralized data center? That's terribly ignorant. The energy use provides the protection to the network: any attack must spend over that amount of energy to succeed. If the energy use was too low, then a bad actor could take over and double spend by temporarily using a large amount of energy. Bitcoin's security is currently higher than it needs to be, but there is no way to know how exactly where the 'good enough' point is (because it's decentralized with no way to bar access) let alone plan in advance or predict the adoption rate. The network schedules a periodic reduction of energy used every 4 years by reducing the mining subsidy, meaning the energy used by the network will likely peak this decade before permanently declining. Furthermore the energy use is a non-issue if it does not pollute, and it's currently powered by about 58.5% sustainable energy and increasing. (bitcoin mining council estimate)
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