Lanx
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Desktop Computers
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Lanx
<Prior Amod>
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yea if we dont mske exception for china memory we will be fucked
mini pcs are increasingly getting marketshare
Intel N100 mini PCs (brands like Beelink, TRIGKEY, GMKtec, Minisforum, or white-label units from AliExpress/Amazon) do indeed ship with generic, lesser-known, or budget Chinese RAM brands installed out of the box (e.g., AZW, KingFast, CXMT/ChangXin Memory Technologies, JuHor, Shenzhen Longsys/Lander, or Goldkey).
and b/c the nature of these pcs is to share mem (cuz graphics), this is how china can sell whole computers cheaply
so while gddr 6/7 is still being used for nvidia/amd, china can still ship out pc's w/ china memory, you know who buys out gaming pc's? internet cafes, you can game the whole day and into the night for like 10bucks renting out a pc w/ a 4090
you can even rent out a "gaming coach" and if you ask her, she'll even dance for you
these are not your lulz 2001 internet cafes
also, iphone is less than 20% marketshare in china, the rest, huawai, xiami, oppo, make up the rest of the market, and they all use china mobile ram
theyre already doing server ram (ecc, etc) and are working on hbm, which is basically ai ram (this is ram stacked vertically for the gpu)
not letting china export this ram, is basically telling china they have a cheap infinate access to ram that we do not have
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Malakriss
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Half of the hardware bought this year is sitting in warehouses waiting for the datacenters they will be installed in to actually be built. Hundreds of billions are being spent with no sign of revenue streams that would generate a profit for a single year, let alone recoup all of the investment leading up to that point.
I have no issues with the people and companies taking advantage of this stupidity, only that the idiots grew to this level and everyone pretends it is a normal cycle of "growth" and recession.
I have no issues with the people and companies taking advantage of this stupidity, only that the idiots grew to this level and everyone pretends it is a normal cycle of "growth" and recession.
Noodleface
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Yep AI has yet to turn a profit but my company's profit is through the roof selling the hardware
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This AI nonsense actually reminds me of 'mindshare' right before the 1st .com bubble. I always wondered how you made money when you gave away your product. I pray my current gaming rig lasts long enough for thinks to become some level of straight.
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Noodleface
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You and I both. Even at work we can't get hardware we need for servers. It's all consumed by AI orders.
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Because some Tech Evangelists (no, that was seriously the term used) tried to use "eyeballs over money" and "get big fast", as in "advertisers will pay for it" - when in reality dot com startups paid for ads on other dot com startups. Basically spending money in a circle on each other.
It is very similar to the current AI boom, where AI startups are racing to build a super-intelligent AI that improves itself, only to then ask that AI how to make money to pay for building the AI itself. Which is quite literally what Sam Altman said. Any sane person understands at a fundamental level how insane of an idea that is.
Instead we get another money circle where Oracle/Microsoft/Nvidia invest in OpenAI, and OpenAI books data center usage from Oracle/Microsoft, which in turn buy graphics cards from Nvidia for their servers. And Nvidia and Microsoft and Oracle can now go to their investors and say "look at how much shit we are selling ... from all the money we didn't have in the first place and invested in OpenAI anyway"
I can't wait for Sam Altman to come from down from the mountain and bring us an hyper-intelligent AI, and then ask the AI how to make money for building the AI, and then the AI answers: 42. And then they build another AI to translate what the first AI said. And after deliberating a year or so the second AI answers: "Have you ever considered a crypto currency rugpull or an NFT scam?"
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Control
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Anthropic is 5 years old and will hit 100B revenue this year. OpenAI around half that.
That's some ludicrous growth. Not profit yet of course, since they're dumping all their money into pushing the tech forward, but what they're building is just phenomenally valuable, probably the most valuable thing in history.
(the million other ai startups that are essentially just repackaging someone else's tokens can get fucked though.)
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yeah like I said, the time right before the dot.com bubble. Doesn't matter to me unless my PC dies then I'll have to go harvest some organs to build a new one. Hell who needs kidneys anyhow?
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Anthropic is 5 years old and will hit 100B revenue this year. OpenAI around half that.
That's some ludicrous growth. Not profit yet of course, since they're dumping all their money into pushing the tech forward, but what they're building is just phenomenally valuable, probably the most valuable thing in history.
(the million other ai startups that are essentially just repackaging someone else's tokens can get fucked though.)
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Was that supposed to be an argument? Because all the dot.com bubble companies also had "ludicrous growth."
Here's the thing: Anthropic is an "enterprise first" model, while OpenAI wants a "consumer/enterprise" mix. Only 20% of Anthropic's revenue comes from Claude Pro subscriptions, the rest are enterprise customers that either use API tokens itself, or resell them like Amazon and Google. So it's basically already enterprises shuffling money around.
At one point the whole cost of building data centers (the power, the fiber, the cooling, the servers itself with GPU and memory and storage) is having to be priced into all of this. It does not work when for example Oracle builds a data center on a 20 year lease, but OpenAI only leases the data center for 5 years. The servers in those racks don't last 20 years. The kicker: Oracle changed their asset depreciation plan for their servers from 4 years before 2023 to now 6 years. That's 3 Nvidia generations.
Meanwhile the cost of power will rise, the cost of GPUs and memory and SSDs already has risen, and when the servers have to be replaced or extended (I'm thinking in about 3 years) all these data center companies are having to increase their prices. Because the funny guy in those gay bar leather jackets isn't going to sell you GPUs below market price. At the end of the day he has a fiduciary duty.
On the other side it has become obvious that Nvidia has problems scaling the performance, as the nodes used to create those GPU chips is reaching its physical limit, and the LLMs powering the AIs are exploding in size but only getting slightly better when compared to the effort used to training the models. We basically have reached asymptotic growth. And this is the point where suddenly players like China can catch up, and do 90% of what a cutting edge model can do for 50% of the price.
And now you have problem: You have to raise your price per token, but you also have competition that is cheaper. And the capital runway for takeoff to reach profit is only so long--especially at the rate you are burning through it. And then you also have CFOs who will re-evaluate if hiring off-shore workers in third world countries for menial tasks isn't going to be cheaper than those new token prices.
Malakriss
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Oracle shares dropped today because they are refusing to make payments to the company building their major datacenter project until it is fully completed (original target date was 2028). Essentially declaring the construction crews are now in the real estate business mid-contract so they have to front all costs, lawyering, etc and Oracle only pays when they are 100% ready to move in.
Let's see how that works out for them.
Let's see how that works out for them.
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I do not know a lot about AI but I know a whole lot about building projects. When the owner refuses to pay, all the contractors stop working. It's iron clad in the contracts. In fact, in NC right before I left, they passed a law that before a construction permit could be issued a lien lawyer had to be assigned. These are there entirely to make sure all the contractors are paid correctly.
Not sure if we had the same thing here in NV , thankfully I didn't have to worry about that part of construction (and rarely had to chase money).
Control
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Maybe my memory is fuzzy, but did the dot com bubble companies actually have revenue? There's a difference between trying to buy marketshare with a deluge of investor-funded ads and spending it actually building a product that has value. Did the bubble companies actually build something that was useful and that people wanted? It's not all sunshine and lollypops, but they're changing the world under our feet in a way that I don't think any company ever has.
Fake edit because I was curious: Pretty much the same thing as Anthropic, right?