I'm curious, has anyone actually looked at a game pre-release and I said "This game has shown me that there is enough to keep me there for 6 + months of continuous play, when it launches."
For me at least and starting with WoW in 2004 and until now, it has been "well this is fun and worth the purchase, what happens after that is up in the air".
Yoshi-P does state it nicely here
The Business Challenge of an MMO
With each passing year, it becomes increasingly difficult to release a large-scale MMO. The rush following Ultima Online and Everquest reached its peak with Blizzard's World of Warcraft. That's not to say WoW started off without criticism. When it first released, there were many complaints about the simplicity of quests, that there was a lack of adventure. There two factions were poorly balanced in PvP, and general impressions would lead one to believe the game was no fun. Looking at WoW now, it's almost unimaginable.
However, instead of giving up, Blizzard switched their plans to be more user/community-centric from their second year of operation on, and became dominant by increasing the new MMORPG users through supplementation of thick scenarios, quest lines, and end-game content. WoW didn't become what it is today by acquiring all of the existing MMORPG players at the time, they became what they are today as the result of breaking into new territory and as a result of that secured all of the existing MMORPG players.
Instead of choosing sides, they persisted and made it attractive to both groups, and began expanding with a focus on Blizzard fans. While the scale is slightly different, FFXI was more than likely in the same boat 11 years ago. Blizzard has been quoted saying that "MMORPGs are a service industry." This was a tremendous shock to Blizzard fans at that time when Blizzard who possesses such great confidence in their game design said this.
Moving forward to 2013, their user numbers are continuing to fall; however, World of Warcraft reigning as the absolute king of the MMORPG industry has not changed. We arrived to where we are currently with the MMORPG rush during 2007 as well as the additional large scale rush of last year.
There are 3 main difficulties for launching an MMO.
Content volume
High-quality user interface
New and unique elements
To overcome these 3 difficulties and launch a game is by no means an easy matter. Amongst the large number of MMORPGs that are trying to launch, there are many cases where their content volume is compared to other MMORPGs who have been running for a long time, and end up suffering immensely. Additionally, the impressions of the beginning of the game between the gamer and the new MMORPG player that I mentioned before are as different as night and day. With this, it's uniqueness that largely increases the difficulty.
I want to target MMORPG gamers as much as possible
I want to acquire as many new players as possible
Basically, EQ, WoW, etc, didn't get all their subs on day one overnight either. I remember many players bitching how unfun WoW was at launch and all the bugs and lag and whatnot. Hell, blizzard fanboys are probably the only thing that kept the game going. The game wasn't mainstream back then. These games took years to grow into what they are today. I think that's the problem is people want MMOs now that on day 1 launch, are going to be the next WoW immediately, and that will just never happen overnight. It will take a game, years of growing, to achieve this, but the biggest thing is they have to keep content coming at a regular enough pace, and not have game breaking bugs, and have higher end content just generally be "fun" to keep players to keep coming back. I mean what keeps me logging into a game, is if the game is fun, and there is stuff for me to do and achieve that can be done solo, raid, group, etc. This is where it is mainly a gamble to buy a box for any MMO, even AAA games like SWToR. It all depends on how the devs handle the game after launch and if your game has some fun things to it. SWToR is a prime example of this and could have done this, but they really hosed themselves by denying the ability to make steady content because of their voiceovers, and their engine was a pile of shit. The game lacked polish and was unpolishable that far into the game. Ask any player and I bet they would say the low levels were fun but high levels were shit for the most part. The story stuff was awesome, so you had good solo stuff leveling up, but at max level all there really was to do was some PvP and raiding. Imagine if they could have kept delivering quality stories on a regular basis. The game would probably have been somewhat of a hit still. It's like a version of WoW that stopped making anything but raids after vanilla. This is why low levels aren't what I watch for in a game. It's long term longevity, and we haven't seen much of that yet, but it does seem that Yoshi-P understands this, and SE has experience with this with FFXI.
When I first started EQ, FFXI, and WoW, I didn't know I would be playing for years. I just bought em, and enjoyed them, and enough content kept coming that kept them fun and kept me logging in and having the addictive urge to play. Even WoW had a lot of shit I didn't like at launch at lower levels and whatnot, all MMO's do. Core MMO gameplay is never going to be as "fun" as a single player game like Tomb Raider or Arkham Asylum, etc. It's just the way MMO's are, and the nature of the beast. This is why you get some success in games like TERA that try to make the MMO general combat and gameplay more like an action game, but in the end they fall to the same MMO downfalls as the rest. Anyways, if WoW had stopped content after BRD and UBRS, we all would have quit many many years ago and WoW would have been just another MMO failure and we would all be playing EQ still bitching about shitty MMOs. This is why you get player burnout between WoW expansions. If they released them 2x as fast I bet they would have more subs than they do now, but people do get tired of the same thing after years and years, so you do have some attrition either way. The leveling in WoW was nothing special to me, pretty run of the mill, but not as bad as sitting in camps like in EQ and FFXI. The fun times I remember in those games with other players, can happen in many games really, and a lot of it stems from the social structure of them games. Many games now days try to be more like a single player RPG and forget that social focus, therefor not allowing players to experience those fun social things that build strong memories and attachments and loyalty to the game and it's players.
Anyways, long story short, I preordered FFXIV. I enjoy the class/job system, the game is very well polished, and has a fun story, and things coming that interest me like housing, etc, that I plan on subbing to it and playing and I'm sure for $22 that I had to pay, I will get my value from it. Now if Yoshi-P can keep content coming, like WoW did, it could grow into a powerhouse. It has the right roots it seems, but in these days, any MMO is a gamble for longterm life. FFXIV will by no means be some WoW killer, but it could be a fun long-term game nonetheless. The only thing that is going to kill WoW is something new and unique on the same level that WoW was new and unique compared to EQ. I'm sure someday someone will make this game, but in the next 5+ years we are stuck with the same old WoW style MMOs, so get used to it. The only thing that is going to make a game better(or worse) is how much new/different unique stuff they add that is different from WoW and is fun/better, and even though FFXIV is close to a WoW clone, it has a different "feel" and a lot of differences that are going to help it in the long run. And hey, maybe if we're lucky, history will repeat itself. I got burnt out on EQ and went to FFXI because it was similar to EQ but different enough, like an EQ 1.5, and then the next big thing, WoW, came out. Maybe we are all burnt on WoW and will play FFXIV (WoW 2.5) and the next big thing will come along in the next few years.