Greece - A New Hope

iannis

Musty Nester
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From a distance we do understand how important this is. Across the pond at least, and at least someone that spends some time to think about it. It's not being reported on very heavily, but it's a complex issue and the past two big european wars did start this way.

Germany and France wanted to lead continental Europe. And they have been. I don't expect they'll let this situation get as bad as their grandparents did. But yeah, some pretty fundamental shit is gonna change over there in the coming year or two innit. No matter what they do with Greece specifically.
 

ohkcrlho

Silver Baronet of the Realm
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In times of crisis, people lean towards to the extremes (left or right).
Like Arbitary said, EU and IMF treated greek people has trash (through ND and PASOK). It was like an experiment, to see if those policies would work in a country with so much shit going on. Of course they knew it was not going to work but hey, great opportunity for great deals (like dismantle the State piece by piece). What? Did you think those demos between 2008-2012 were only anarchists?

And now everyone is surprised that "radicals" are in power lol a friend of mine (greek) told me once "in a swamp, only shit floats". If EU "democrats" did their fuckin job for the last 2 decades, there would not be Syriza in power and FN and Podemos possibility to be in power.

But for me Syriza has a purpose, is like a sledge hammer in the head of Merkel and other leaders, who think EU is like one body, with all its organs responding correctly to every command. And what do you think it will happen if Greece is kicked out from Euro? Investors will again use dollars because the Euro is not reliable. So those fantasies of "nothing will happen" is pure bullshit imo
 

Xequecal

Trump's Staff
11,559
-2,388
Not paying anything back unless they hit 5% GDPgrowth? Seems like a high bar to set on long term debt repayment. Might as well just nullify the debt and kill the union because the other high debt nations will do the exact same thing and no one is going to get paid.

I don't feel bad for Greece. They created this mess. There should be some concessions to help get their economy moving but what he is asking for is ridiculous.

They are lucky they are on the euro and not bringing dump trucks of drachma to pay for a banana.
Greece is basically the nation-state version of the subprime mortgage borrowers that killed our economy. Yeah, they were stupid for borrowing so much, but pretty much everyone rushed to dump as much money there as possible. They did so because they believed Germany and France would not let the Euro fail and would bail Greece out. Exactly the way the implicit Too Big To Fail guarantee here meant banks knew they did not have to fear going bankrupt for making predatory loans.

I suppose when the Great Recession hit, we shouldn't have provided any aid to our underwater homeowners. In addition, we should have repealed the laws that discharge the remaining debt balance in an underwater foreclosure, taken away government benefits from foreclosees, and generally forced all of said homeowners to work as lifetime debt slaves in order to "fulfill their freely-made obligations." Because that's basically what the EU is doing to Greece now.
 

Running Dog_sl

shitlord
1,199
3
It's fair to say things are not going smoothly between the EU and the new government.

Back to the press conference between eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem and Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, and Helena Smith says it was a tense affair:

"Send off for Joren Dijsselbloem ended with incredible stand-off as Varoufakis socked him one over the troika. The Dutchman looked enraged, bending forward to whisper something in Varoufakis' ear to which the Greek finance minister did not respond. Greek finance ministry staff standing behind me said "Oh my God."

One said "I wonder if this is the time to pack my bags."

Throughout the press conference you could almost feel the electric tension in the air.
Greece holds tense meeting with eurozone finance chief - live updates | Business | The Guardian
 

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
<Gold Donor>
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This is an interesting development. I really like this kind of large scale economics so here's what I think. I have a lot of academic background in economic research. Although I am a software developer today, I follow such things a lot.

I don't know how much economics you follow but how the EU dealt with the financial crisis and the USA did are opposing schools of thought. At the time the IMF (mostly Germans) unanimously agreed that forcing austerity was the right thing to do. Compared to the American answer of bailout and keep everything supported until it could sort itself out without imploding. Now the IMF has turned a 180 and is against austerity.Here.This is just one of the many articles about it.

On its face, austerity is a reasonable request to a country that 100% created their own mess with unsustainable policies (IE retirement age of 55, economy/bureaucracy hostile to new businesses). Austerity brought with it a lot of unintended (but not unforeseen) side effects. Austerity further depressed the European economy as a whole. Germany's economy is stagnating greatly. This is especially an interesting development in Greece, because part of the deal was to loosen Germany's tariffs on imports, which drove their competitors out of business and also made a lot of people unemployed who could no longer buy the goods and services Germany was trying to sell which then led to layoffs in Germany... EuroMess.

In regards to the "act like Iceland and tell everyone to fuck off" attitude, that is a political and economical impossibility. Iceland had the ability to do this because they are A.) A population of 330,000 people, B.) A sovereign nation and C.) Not enough economic clout do truly draw the ire of the EU/UK financial interests. So just get that stupid fucking concept out of your damn mind and never bring it up again.

But I am getting off point. This party appears to have a reasonable plan to "do as much as they can" to repay their debts while not economically (literally?) starving their people. The IMF really dropped the ball here, but it isn't like it was a bad idea overall, it just ended up being a terrible idea that should never be considered again. Regardless of how Greece became part of the EU, they are part of the EU now and they must solve these problems together. Among the economists of the world its generally understood that you can't really judge a particular policy until you try it, so you can't fault the designers because of an unintended outcome. If the IMF follows the USA example and just supports Greece while they sort it out to prevent implosion. Greece has to push for policies that more closely align with the other European countries to prevent further problems. But fuck knows how long that will take. The IMF may be pushing against austerity now, but they need more of the financial players with skin in the game to bite on that particular hook to get money moving. Which will also be a hard thing to do.
 

Arbitrary

Tranny Chaser
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72,239
In regards to the "act like Iceland and tell everyone to fuck off" attitude, that is a political and economical impossibility. Iceland had the ability to do this because they are A.) A population of 330,000 people, B.) A sovereign nation and C.) Not enough economic clout do truly draw the ire of the EU/UK financial interests. So just get that stupid fucking concept out of your damn mind and never bring it up again.
Yes, everyone get the idea of not paying back debt out of your heads. That's something for the financial elite to do and is not to be spoken of by the rank and file.
 

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
<Gold Donor>
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Allow me to elaborate. So, technically you're right. They CAN tell their lenders to fuck off. However, the entire EU will absolutely do everything humanly possible to prevent this from happening. This is because Greece, like it or not, is still part of the EU. Thus, its a big confidence game. If one country does this, confidence (value) in the EU and the Euro, European Economy, assets will drop dramatically. The house of cards must be kept up for the interests of every single EU country.

This is what prevents Greece from doing it and allowed Iceland to do it. Do you understand?
 

Arbitrary

Tranny Chaser
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That's a fine view of things from the side of Not Greece.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0VA05620150131

Greece's new leftist government, which aims to ease the strict terms of the bailout that have imposed harsh austerity, opened talks with European partners on Friday by flatly refusing to extend the current programme or to cooperate with the international inspectors overseeing it.
The democratically elected government of Greece doesn't see things quite as cut and dry.
 

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
<Gold Donor>
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This question should answer itself here. What matters more? Greece's economy, or the European economy as a whole?
 

Xequecal

Trump's Staff
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-2,388
Both options are bad. If they make concessions to Greence, Italy and Spain will demand the same concessions. If they let Greece ditch their debt entirely and leave the Euro, Italy and Spain will also do this.
 

dizzie

Triggered Happy
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3,937
If Greece leave the Euro and say fuck you to the debt they will be in for a world of hurt, the way things are right now will be nothing in comparison...This country is incapable of managing its finances and has been for decades.
 

fanaskin

Well known agitator
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This question should answer itself here. What matters more? Greece's economy, or the European economy as a whole?
That's only a real question if you think economic rules can never be changed which is of course not true at all. The real question in my mind is if germany is going to use it's clout to dominate the rest of the eu or not(they are), over half of germany's ww1 and ww2 debts were written off when suddenly the rest of europe wanted a strong germany.

The debt write-off behind Germany's 'economic miracle'

In Greek crisis, Germany should learn from its fiscal past - The Washington Post
 

Kedwyn

Silver Squire
3,915
80
The EU doesn't need Greece nearly as much as Greece needs the EU.

Comparing a post WW2 Germany which more or less needed to be rebuilt entirely to Greece today which is only in shambles because of their own incompetence and spendthrift is retarded.

Greece can attempt to get some concessions and certainly that will come. That said if they go full retard they will get kicked out of the club as there are other countries in line with massive debts patiently waiting to see what happens to this shit hole. Greece better hope they don't have to go back to the Drachma because if they think they have problems now try buying something with fiat that no one wants. At least they have the Euro. Things can get much worse.
 

fanaskin

Well known agitator
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The EU doesn't need Greece nearly as much as Greece needs the EU.
I'm not really sure why greece NEEDS the euro at all, it's really just balancing the pain a separation would cause vs the pain austerity would cause.
 

Kedwyn

Silver Squire
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You're kidding right?

If they were on the Drachma it would be virtually worthless with their current situation. Just dropping the Euro would increase their inflation by unimaginable rates. Their little shit hole is able to teeter on the edge of bankruptcy and still has the exact same buying power as Germany.
 

fanaskin

Well known agitator
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you say that but it didn't really kill argentina when they did something similar in 2001/2

after the initial chaos you'd more likely see more capital inflow because suddenly they'd have cheaper assets, devaluing the currency is probably exactly what greece needs to do to stay competitive.

if they are going to eventually default anyways the barriers for an exit are suddenly a lot lower.
 

Kedwyn

Silver Squire
3,915
80
The punitive climate is very different when other big boys are waiting in line to see what happens so they can shed their debt load as well. No one gave or gives a shit about Argentina or Greece but they do care about a trend and precedent that could bring the house of cards down.

If Greece decides to wave its middle finger around and tells creditors to go pound tar I would bet they will be made an example of and harshly.
 

DMK_sl

shitlord
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0
I'm not very well versed in economics but it wreaks of entitlement that a government and a people expect EU and the lenders to fuck off but at the same time help out.
 

Flight

Molten Core Raider
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Do people think it's right that up to now the EU and IMF have forced Greece to sell it's national industries (power, transport etc) to the ruling elite ?