Home buying thread

Fucker

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The only thing I will say is the stock market is not the housing market. Stocks are fickle, liquid and can be panic sold at the push of a button. Housing? Not so much.

From the historical perspective of the last “crash” of the 2008 GFC / Housing Crisis:
Lehman collapse (alarm bells blared): Sept 2008
Stock market bottom: March 2009
Housing bottom: 2012

So, to even assume a housing crisis is unfolding, it can take YEARS to shake out. It moves at a glacial pace to get forced selling, comps to pull valuations down, etc.

I still don’t think we get any massive housing correction until there are mass layoffs, which don’t seem to be happening as of yet. We are seeing some anecdotal markets pull in that were the most overbought during the pandemic years. (TX & FL). Much of the NorthEast is doing nothing but going up in price.
Yeah.

There will be localized housing corrections like we are seeing in Florida, but not a broad OMG collapse that we saw previously. In a lot of places, there are more asses than seats, and that drives up prices. Inflation, too. Housing prices here have tracked almost exactly the real rate of inflation Since 2020. This is never going to go away.
 
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Lambourne

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Yeah.

There will be localized housing corrections like we are seeing in Florida, but not a broad OMG collapse that we saw previously. In a lot of places, there are more asses than seats, and that drives up prices. Inflation, too. Housing prices here have tracked almost exactly the real rate of inflation Since 2020. This is never going to go away.

Inflation expectations also drive mortgage rates. People think "Fed cuts rates, my mortgage rate is going to drop too", but mortgage rates are far more closely linked to long term bond rates. Fed cut in 2024 and mortgage rates went up.


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Jysin

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Exactly right. The people peddling Fed cuts = cheap mortgages are often in the RE sales industry. “Date the rate & marry the house” has been repeated over the last couple of years, making buyers believe you can just buy no matter what at elevated rates and “just refi later”.

Bottom line: Fed does NOT control the long end of the yield curve. Mortgages tend to follow the long end. When bond buyers start to doubt the fiscal path and future bond issuances, they are going to demand elevated rates on their risk. That is where we are at.

Ask the UK how their mortgage rates are doing. Their central bank has cut 5 times over the last 18 months. Their 30 year gilt (bond) just hit multi-decade highs! Same issues with UK debt and spending that are driving the long end of the curve. The US is facing the same fate unless they get their fiscal house in order.
 

Intrinsic

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For what it is worth, I've spent the last week shopping around a LOT of Construction-to-perm and mortgage offerings from banks. We haven't taken it far enough to get contracts because we're still ironing out our total build price and amount we need, but the rates we're being quoted are dropping.

I've gone to probably 5-6 local / regional banks and larger ones such as Regions and Bank of America.

One local bank quoted us 9.5% on the construction loan, 2 closings and they don't offer an in-house perm option so we'd have to go elsewhere.
We've had most others return construction at 7.2% - 7.7% depending on 80% to 90% LTV/LTC.
One local bank came back at 6.5% but they were a one-time close product with no option to float down or refinance on conversion.

A friend just closed on his house ($250k) with a 5.9% mortgage, 0 points but I'm pretty sure he had 20% down, so not really a huge loan.

Not arguing about whether the fed controls those or anything but they are dropping. A little less than a year ago an acquaintance built their home and the best construction loan he found was a local bank at 8.5% (same one that quoted us 7.5% today).

It really seems like during the rising rate period most of the lenders swapped over to one-time close products and were selling the value of locking in the rate today since the hedge was rates were going up, and your conversion would be higher. These same banks haven't repositioned their offerings to either be a 2 close product or allow for a float down (either during the course of construction or at close). So, for the moment, we're focusing in on ones with a 2-close option.
 

TJT

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Well. Made it free and clear on my other house. So that's cool. This was my first house in the north Austin area. Renting it out for $2100/month for the past few years since I moved to my current place.

Screenshot 2025-09-26 at 5.47.18 AM.png
 
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Haus

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Well. Made it free and clear on my other house. So that's cool. This was my first house in the north Austin area. Renting it out for $2100/month for the past few years since I moved to my current place.

View attachment 603464
I'm at the point where the only thing between me and this screen is that I don't mind having my assets in investments making greater than then 3% I'm paying on the small remaining amount on my mortgage. And every month or two I get that itchy trigger fingers that says "It would only take a SMALL sale of your company stock to clear that mortgage" and so far I have resisted.
 
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Mahes

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Well. Made it free and clear on my other house. So that's cool. This was my first house in the north Austin area. Renting it out for $2100/month for the past few years since I moved to my current place.

View attachment 603464
Just sent a Wire to my Mortgage bank and cleared the loan. 9 Years for a 15 year loan. All Done.

Celebrate Stir Crazy GIF by This GIF Is Haunted
 
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moonarchia

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Bit of a quandry, so I figure I will ask the folks here. I have 3.5 months before I have to make any decisions.

Right now I owe $220k on my condo. According to RE agent I could probably sell it for $280-300k. I was laid off, and am unlikely to find another job at that rate in the near future. I have enough in my 401k and IRA to get $100-120k if I cash it all out.

Should I cash out and refinance my mortgage? Should I sell the condo and waste my money renting for the next 5-15 years and let my 401k do its thing?
 

Furry

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Bit of a quandry, so I figure I will ask the folks here. I have 3.5 months before I have to make any decisions.

Right now I owe $220k on my condo. According to RE agent I could probably sell it for $280-300k. I was laid off, and am unlikely to find another job at that rate in the near future. I have enough in my 401k and IRA to get $100-120k if I cash it all out.

Should I cash out and refinance my mortgage? Should I sell the condo and waste my money renting for the next 5-15 years and let my 401k do its thing?
My call in your situation would be to sell. You should make out a nice profit, and 120k saved up for retirement is probably okay at your age but not great. Selling keeps your options open, which is what I'd gravitate toward. From there I'd rent, but keep all the money I got keeping an eye open for something to buy that I'd like long term. Likely after I got my job situation sorted.

But there's no 'correct' answer in situations like this, just the most acceptably bad outcome.
 
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Daidraco

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Bit of a quandry, so I figure I will ask the folks here. I have 3.5 months before I have to make any decisions.

Right now I owe $220k on my condo. According to RE agent I could probably sell it for $280-300k. I was laid off, and am unlikely to find another job at that rate in the near future. I have enough in my 401k and IRA to get $100-120k if I cash it all out.

Should I cash out and refinance my mortgage? Should I sell the condo and waste my money renting for the next 5-15 years and let my 401k do its thing?
Dont touch 401k. Rent out the condo. Live with family, or find an extremely cheap place to rent. You'll need a job of course, but its a lot easier to accept a lower paying job when you no longer have a 2000+ mortgage payment hanging over your head. I know its not the most "relaxing", "comfortable" and "respectable" position to be in - but you only have to swallow your pride until you're back on your feet and at that point - you'll have never went "backwards."

My question to ya, man. If you were laid off, and its directly related to the government shutdown - are you not expecting to be rehired when they finally get their head out of their ass? I know you cant count on the unknown, but I would hate for you to make a drastic decision from the options YOU provided.. and then everything opens up with backpay, etc.
 
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Sheriff Cad

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Bit of a quandry, so I figure I will ask the folks here. I have 3.5 months before I have to make any decisions.

Right now I owe $220k on my condo. According to RE agent I could probably sell it for $280-300k. I was laid off, and am unlikely to find another job at that rate in the near future. I have enough in my 401k and IRA to get $100-120k if I cash it all out.

Should I cash out and refinance my mortgage? Should I sell the condo and waste my money renting for the next 5-15 years and let my 401k do its thing?
Where is the condo located and what does the market look like there? You don't have to doxx yourself, just realistically evaluate the market there. Is this a continuing appreciation situation or is the market stagnant?

Very likely I'd say sell the condo before you touch your 401k. Selling the condo will also give you freedom to relocate to find a job, which may well be necessary.
 
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moonarchia

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Dont touch 401k. Rent out the condo. Live with family, or find an extremely cheap place to rent. You'll need a job of course, but its a lot easier to accept a lower paying job when you no longer have a 2000+ mortgage payment hanging over your head. I know its not the most "relaxing", "comfortable" and "respectable" position to be in - but you only have to swallow your pride until you're back on your feet and at that point - you'll have never went "backwards."

My question to ya, man. If you were laid off, and its directly related to the government shutdown - are you not expecting to be rehired when they finally get their head out of their ass? I know you cant count on the unknown, but I would hate for you to make a drastic decision from the options YOU provided.. and then everything opens up with backpay, etc.
I was in telecomm, not government related. It is possible they overcut and might rehire, but unlikely. Company just bought out another telecomm and this was probably prep for the merger. Living with family isn't an option. I asked, and they said fuck off. I am literally alone in this.
Where is the condo located and what does the market look like there? You don't have to doxx yourself, just realistically evaluate the market there. Is this a continuing appreciation situation or is the market stagnant?

Very likely I'd say sell the condo before you touch your 401k. Selling the condo will also give you freedom to relocate to find a job, which may well be necessary.
It's a rather nice high rise in the middle of Denver Tech Center. Market here has been stagnant, but this is a fairly prime location. My money wouldn't be growing, but I could get a job relatively easy that would let me cover a $100-120k mortgage, and would be able to have it paid off in 15 years when I would be looking to retire.

Jobs aren't a huge problem. Worse comes to worst I can bag groceries/stock shelves at the King Soopers that is 2 minutes away and struggling to get anyone to apply. For the moment I am focusing on WFH options that aren't tied to physical locations. My decades in telecomm included a fair number of years doing customer service, which seems to be what most non-sales WFH jobs fall under.
 
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fris

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obviously do what you can do you don't have to sell and don't have to take out retirement early. i'd tend to sell before dipping if it comes down to it. if you can find a job that aligns w/ a lower cost of living location, that might be best. selling your place to rent for slightly less in teh same area might not impact the budget as much as you need.
 

Daidraco

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I was in telecomm, not government related. It is possible they overcut and might rehire, but unlikely. Company just bought out another telecomm and this was probably prep for the merger. Living with family isn't an option. I asked, and they said fuck off. I am literally alone in this.

It's a rather nice high rise in the middle of Denver Tech Center. Market here has been stagnant, but this is a fairly prime location. My money wouldn't be growing, but I could get a job relatively easy that would let me cover a $100-120k mortgage, and would be able to have it paid off in 15 years when I would be looking to retire.

Jobs aren't a huge problem. Worse comes to worst I can bag groceries/stock shelves at the King Soopers that is 2 minutes away and struggling to get anyone to apply. For the moment I am focusing on WFH options that aren't tied to physical locations. My decades in telecomm included a fair number of years doing customer service, which seems to be what most non-sales WFH jobs fall under.
Been dwelling on this today. I say change the way you're looking at it and view it as a personal challenge to yourself to spread your wings a bit financially.

Get a well known property management company to rent your condo out for you. After HOA fee's and such, you might break even - but hopefully itll give you a little pocket change. That way someone that knows the in's and out's of rentals is in control and its not all on you to learn with trial and error.

Then rent yourself something small, closer to wherever you land a job you're comfortable at. After you've regained some stability and found a better job (you will) - you'll have a record of payments coming in from your Condo as additional income. The collateral from the Condo (roughly 60k according to you), the history of rental payments, and your new job, should "walk the walk" for you to purchase your next property.

My main priority for you is to let your 401k continue to grow, and you also have some random tenant paying your principal for you, which also lightens your bills and sets you up for success in the long run instead of walking backwards.

This is roughly how I built my first 4 unit apartment complex, so Im not talking out of my ass. Just find a job quickly, any job, and dont let depression talk you into moping around. If you at least entertain this idea and have more questions, you know how to reach me big dog. :emoji_muscle:
 
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moonarchia

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Been dwelling on this today. I say change the way you're looking at it and view it as a personal challenge to yourself to spread your wings a bit financially.

Get a well known property management company to rent your condo out for you. After HOA fee's and such, you might break even - but hopefully itll give you a little pocket change. That way someone that knows the in's and out's of rentals is in control and its not all on you to learn with trial and error.

Then rent yourself something small, closer to wherever you land a job you're comfortable at. After you've regained some stability and found a better job (you will) - you'll have a record of payments coming in from your Condo as additional income. The collateral from the Condo (roughly 60k according to you), the history of rental payments, and your new job, should "walk the walk" for you to purchase your next property.

My main priority for you is to let your 401k continue to grow, and you also have some random tenant paying your principal for you, which also lightens your bills and sets you up for success in the long run instead of walking backwards.

This is roughly how I built my first 4 unit apartment complex, so Im not talking out of my ass. Just find a job quickly, any job, and dont let depression talk you into moping around. If you at least entertain this idea and have more questions, you know how to reach me big dog. :emoji_muscle:
Rents in this area are fucked up. I would still end up having to pay 500+ out of pocket just to let someone else live here. Selling and renting is an option.
 

Furry

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Rents in this area are fucked up. I would still end up having to pay 500+ out of pocket just to let someone else live here. Selling and renting is an option.
This is true in a lot of the US right now. It's a renters market and you need to be prepared to handle losses for a while renting out newer properties. For some people it can be worth it, but you are in a far from ideal financial situation to take that risk imo.

Some people hate on renting in general, but there is plenty of situations where being the renter is perfectly logical and the financially sound thing to do, especially if you don't have long term stability.
 
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Kithani

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Been dwelling on this today. I say change the way you're looking at it and view it as a personal challenge to yourself to spread your wings a bit financially.

Get a well known property management company to rent your condo out for you. After HOA fee's and such, you might break even - but hopefully itll give you a little pocket change. That way someone that knows the in's and out's of rentals is in control and its not all on you to learn with trial and error.

Then rent yourself something small, closer to wherever you land a job you're comfortable at. After you've regained some stability and found a better job (you will) - you'll have a record of payments coming in from your Condo as additional income. The collateral from the Condo (roughly 60k according to you), the history of rental payments, and your new job, should "walk the walk" for you to purchase your next property.

My main priority for you is to let your 401k continue to grow, and you also have some random tenant paying your principal for you, which also lightens your bills and sets you up for success in the long run instead of walking backwards.

This is roughly how I built my first 4 unit apartment complex, so Im not talking out of my ass. Just find a job quickly, any job, and dont let depression talk you into moping around. If you at least entertain this idea and have more questions, you know how to reach me big dog. :emoji_muscle:
I dunno man, Denver in particular has had a huge "boom" phase over the past 5-10 years due to all the $$$ flowing into tech. I'm not in tech myself so hard to say if this whole "tech industry doomerism" is legit or not but seems like condos in Denver might be prime for a correction if that industry is truly on a downswing.

I also feel like it really depends on when he bought it seems like we're in this weird time period where there is a group of people with mortgages from pre and post-2022 and that single factor determines whether renting out your house can cover the mortgage
 

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Jobs aren't a huge problem. Worse comes to worst I can bag groceries/stock shelves at the King Soopers that is 2 minutes away and struggling to get anyone to apply. For the moment I am focusing on WFH options that aren't tied to physical locations. My decades in telecomm included a fair number of years doing customer service, which seems to be what most non-sales WFH jobs fall under.
The only comment here I can reliably make is that Remote jobs are simply a lot rarer now and will get more rare. They exist and you can get them. But its much more difficult. Hybrids are far easier to get because so many are competing for WFH jobs now. If you are willing to continue working in your industry this can be an advantage. We all love WFH but its just not like it was in 2021.