Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,569
- 107,661
Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
Blazin
Creative Title
- 6,430
- 33,745
Please never say "unprecedented blah blah" The market is sentiment driven and obviously that sentiment is affected by different factors, but past history is not for the purposes of comparing one input to another, because there is one very strong commonality that this period has will all past periods, and that is HUMANS and the emotions that drive them. I never post historical technical data to say here is my prediction. It is a guidepost for how humans in the past have behaved in similar technical situations.
Saying you are taking a bearish or bullish approach to the future is just silly. Trade what is in front of you, don't guess about anything. We look at the past because we are trying to prep our emotions and expectations, they aren't predictions. They are guide posts so that we are better situated to understand how humans might respond in the future based on how they have responded in the past. Allocations and trades should always be made with real data in hand, and the chart in front of you.
I have tried to drive this point home for years now, please stop thinking like this, it will not work. It's amazing how a mountain of evidence can show it's futility and we just can't stop clinging to it. The fact you can list a "we have...." is ALWAYS true there is always something that people are listing for why this time is different. That has been true our entire lives and will be true long after we are gone. The market has seen the industrial revolution , it has seen major societal changes, it has seen world wide wars, it has seen men put on the moon, it has seen the world minutes away from nuclear war. There is nothing new under the sun. Man you triggered me pulling out the "unprecedented" . I'm okay now
- 1
Furry
WoW Office
- 19,765
- 25,070
NKLA straight up lied about all the things they wanted to do. None of it was mathematically possible, and their chief
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,569
- 107,661
I think what is bolstering RIVN is the investments by F and AMZN and the fact it cant be shorted yet. Wait until the shorts and options players can get into the water.
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,569
- 107,661
Wow.Please never say "unprecedented blah blah" The market is sentiment driven and obviously that sentiment is affected by different factors, but past history is not for the purposes of comparing one input to another, because there is one very strong commonality that this period has will all past periods, and that is HUMANS and the emotions that drive them. I never post historical technical data to say here is my prediction. It is a guidepost for how humans in the past have behaved in similar technical situations.
Saying you are taking a bearish or bullish approach to the future is just silly. Trade what is in front of you, don't guess about anything. We look at the past because we are trying to prep our emotions and expectations, they aren't predictions. They are guide posts so that we are better situated to understand how humans might respond in the future based on how they have responded in the past. Allocations and trades should always be made with real data in hand, and the chart in front of you.
I have tried to drive this point home for years now, please stop thinking like this, it will not work. It's amazing how a mountain of evidence can show it's futility and we just can't stop clinging to it. The fact you can list a "we have...." is ALWAYS true there is always something that people are listing for why this time is different. That has been true our entire lives and will be true long after we are gone. The market has seen the industrial revolution , it has seen major societal changes, it has seen world wide wars, it has seen men put on the moon, it has seen the world minutes away from nuclear war. There is nothing new under the sun. Man you triggered me pulling out the "unprecedented" . I'm okay now
Blazin
getting triggered is unprecedented here on FOH. 
- 3
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 36,783
- 117,617
I enjoy these videos, but I dunno, they all seem the same. I guess I'll start by saying apparently this shit is obvious. FoH has been talking about the money supply being the cause of inflation for the entire year. But maybe it's because we're always ahead of the curve (the "Politics" type threads we seem to be a minimum of 6 months ahead of the broader population). Although I have no idea how people in the financial markets could be oblivious to something that's so obvious. Maybe they're not.
I enjoy the videos because they give me a bit more background, but they annoy me a bit because they never expand on that. I watched the whole thing, and he never addresses what comes next. Everyone seems to be able to call out the crisis in the making and point out historical parallels, but there's never anything actionable. I know these people don't have a crystal ball, but they talk like experts about the "why" it's happening, but don't seem to have any historical comparisons to make on what the people that came out the other end better did.
There's nothing in them to help me make better decisions. Instead, I just become an expert on history, but that's pretty worthless outside of being able to say "I told you so" when we're all destitute.
Edit: As usual, someone already beat me to the point. Fuck you,
Blazin
.- 1
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,569
- 107,661
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
- 6,286
- 4,050
That isn't true at all. Maybe not on the retail brokers, but most brokers used by anyone moving size you sure can.
My own broker has shares for borrow and has had since IPO.
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,569
- 107,661
You see this on FOH and some other "not heavily moderated" sites. Its not that we are smarter than other people (well maybe we are), its that we aren't posting here with a political or financial incentive to lie/obfuscate/ignore what we know the facts to be and to make critical thinking based conclusions about the data. Politicians/Wallstreeters/Pump and Dumpers all have ulterior reasons to say what they say. We just shitpost.I enjoy these videos, but I dunno, they all seem the same. I guess I'll start by saying apparently this shit is obvious. FoH has been talking about the money supply being the cause of inflation for the entire year. But maybe it's because we're always ahead of the curve (the "Politics" type threads we seem to be a minimum of 6 months ahead of the broader population). Although I have no idea how people in the financial markets could be oblivious to something that's so obvious. Maybe they're not.
I enjoy the videos because they give me a bit more background, but they annoy me a bit because they never expand on that. I watched the whole thing, and he never addresses what comes next. Everyone seems to be able to call out the crisis in the making and point out historical parallels, but there's never anything actionable. I know these people don't have a crystal ball, but they talk like experts about the "why" it's happening, but don't seem to have any historical comparisons to make on what the people that came out the other end better did.
There's nothing in them to help me make better decisions. Instead, I just become an expert on history, but that's pretty worthless outside of being able to say "I told you so" when we're all destitute.
Edit: As usual, someone already beat me to the point. Fuck you,
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,569
- 107,661
I stand corrected. I thought IPO's were prevented from shorting for a quiet period after the IPO day.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 36,783
- 117,617
True.
FatWallet used to have forums (maybe they still do). I remember back in 2005 or so and tons of us were calling the housing market bubble. It was incredibly obvious. Maybe not obvious in that the CDO's would implode the economy, but the overall trend was there.
Furry
WoW Office
- 19,765
- 25,070
We're mostly just a bunch of Joes, and this is clearly an easy market. #1 way to make money is just put it in. From there it's just a difference of opinion on how to best make money other than a few outlier stocks that have gotten dumped on.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
- 6,286
- 4,050
When Are Short Sales Accepted for IPOs?
The quick answer to this question is that an IPO can be shorted upon initial trading, but it is not an easy thing to do at the start of an offering.
Posted not as a smart ass reply, but info for anyone else curious. Having the shares available for borrow is typically the only thing preventing anyone from shorting. Retail brokers like TD rarely have shorts (hard to borrow). Hell, I think they haven't had TSLA shares for borrow in a long while. Meanwhile, on Lightspeed they have been easy to borrow (no borrow cost) for years.
With most things in life, you get what you pay for.
Asshat wormie
2023 Asshat Award Winner
- 16,820
- 30,966
I am bailing around $112. Taking my 25% and going the fuck home aka DIS.
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,569
- 107,661
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
- 6,286
- 4,050
Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
- 1,734
- 2,253
While I think we are in unprecedented times, the reality is and this chart is pretty amazing because it's hard to find someone that actually knows bonds in the youtube era of bullshit.
Anytime inflation has soared, yields actually go down. I see yields actually taking a massive shit here in the next few months. Leading to a rally as Blazin alludes to constantly.
It's there in the charts, it happens, every fuckin time. Back in 2008 yields went up from like 4% to 4.8% and crashed down to 2.6% or so.
The more info I seek, the more info I find that completely goes against everything I assume about inflation.
While sentiment is low, its seems as fleeting as a womans emotional state.
Anytime inflation has soared, yields actually go down. I see yields actually taking a massive shit here in the next few months. Leading to a rally as Blazin alludes to constantly.
It's there in the charts, it happens, every fuckin time. Back in 2008 yields went up from like 4% to 4.8% and crashed down to 2.6% or so.
The more info I seek, the more info I find that completely goes against everything I assume about inflation.
While sentiment is low, its seems as fleeting as a womans emotional state.
Furry
WoW Office
- 19,765
- 25,070
