Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes said:

Blazin Jysin if I am reading the tea leaves correctly, I see SPY with pretty clear air above it until $433.72 (long term resistance) and then the 200-DMA at $445.58. QQQ has air above it until the 50-DMA at $392.41 and then long term resistance and the 200-DMA right around $367?

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Right now don't just look at price levels. I think the market is going to place a lot of weight on trend lines. We need to break to the downward channel.

This is QQQ. We have the top of the downward channel matching up with the 20d rather well. My other trend line is a many year trend line that use to be the top of the channel and became the support back in H2 2020. So my read is that QQQ ~$340 is going to become crucial. The more skittish investors will wait till they see that cleared to start feeling a bottom has been made. That is certainly not an "all clear" it is just the point that the needle would take a tilt towards upside, higher highs would need to happen in the following weeks for the vix to actually settle down and for incremental flows to reverse and head back into the market.

We are still below breadth thrust levels (for those that don't know not sure there is any better predictor of future gains than a series of breadth thrusts 80-90% upside volume) The key is that you want them consecutively. In a bear cycle you can get a few of them that are isolated, we are sitting at about 75% today. There are going to be a a bazillion algos looking for this, what we have seen for months now is a market that is just not strong enough to make that happen. For today it we could probably get the first one if we had high volume boner bars into the close, but would still have to follow it up with another really strong day tomorrow. Quite the feat given current mood/sentiment, seems hard to believe we could do that given current geopolitical back drop but always keep an open mind and just pay attention.

I have stops in place, off PC for a bit. G/L