Investing General Discussion

Borzak

Borzak

Bronze Baron of the Realm
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Furry said:
cliff notes are already out on white house website. Some glorious things. Don't use your oil lease, we'll seize it! Want canola oil during a major world food oil shortage? Too bad, we will make E85 jet fuel with canola oil.

How hard is it to suspend the gas tax and look for ways to encourage production. SMH.
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I have mineral rights in 3 different tracts. I lease them out from time to time. It's not up to most mineral rights owners if they drill or not. I can't call Exxon and say come drill for oil where I own the rights? I lease them and when someone accumulates enough that they start drilling then I make 20% of the production. Blind leading the dumb and blind.

My leases have always been for 3 years with right of first refusal. Lot of mineral rights not being drilling cause it cost money to just have them already leased up sitting in your back pocket, which is why they lease in rolling waves and such.
 
C

Captain Suave

Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
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Aldarion said:
lol ethanol as a control on gas prices. Hows that supposed to work?
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Also, a higher ethanol content than what we have currently will degrade engine components unless they're specially designed for the mix, like in Brazil.
 
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Furry

Furry

WoW Office
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Captain Suave said:
Also, a higher ethanol content than what we have currently will degrade engine components unless they're specially designed for the mix, like in Brazil.
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Most modern cars are designed to withstand it. Forget when that started 15+ years ago? This will burn up the engines of poors, though.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Blazin Blazin Am thinking about an SPY straddle at $444 expiry of Thursday 4/14. If I read it right my breakeven is about a $6 move either way (or 1.35%). Thoughts? I can see lots of volatility on Thursday's session.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Another day, another Fed speaker:

12:15 (US) Fed’s Brainard (vice chair nominee): Commodities price shock is driving topline inflation; Food and energy price increases are particularly painful
- Russian invasion of Ukraine is driving topline inflation, especially energy; Invasion skews inflation to the upside
- Getting inflation down is more important task
- Will be looking for moderating core inflation and declining categories with outsized increases
- Labor market and economy overall has seen very strong demand; Seeing a rebound in labor force participation in last few months
- Expect demand to moderate; Fiscal support to be a drag in '22
- There will be spillover from slower growth abroad and less stimulus from fiscal side
- Recovery can be sustained even as we bring inflation down
- Tighter financial conditions will help cool demand; Financial conditions are already tightening
- We should see some return to historic service demand; As pandemic lifts we should see more demand for services and less pressure in durables
- There is plenty of room for businesses to trim job openings
- I don't see Fed tightening policy as not being consistent with bringing inflation down and sustaining recovery
- Too early to have confidence in the post-war new normal
- Neutral rate may continue to be at low historic level; We need to see how economy evolves
- It will take more time than anybody would have thought to go back to pre-pandemic norms
- Balance sheet reductions may start in June after decision made in May
- Higher mortgage rates reflect a shift in Fed policy outlook
- We are tightening monetary policy 'methodically'; Don't want to focus on pace of rate hikes
- Combined effects will bring policy to a neutral level in late 2022
- I don't have a 'stopping rule' per se on rates
 
Tmac

Tmac

Adventurer
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Jysin said:
Another day, another Fed speaker:

12:15 (US) Fed’s Brainard (vice chair nominee): Commodities price shock is driving topline inflation; Food and energy price increases are particularly painful
- Russian invasion of Ukraine is driving topline inflation, especially energy; Invasion skews inflation to the upside
- Getting inflation down is more important task
- Will be looking for moderating core inflation and declining categories with outsized increases
- Labor market and economy overall has seen very strong demand; Seeing a rebound in labor force participation in last few months
- Expect demand to moderate; Fiscal support to be a drag in '22
- There will be spillover from slower growth abroad and less stimulus from fiscal side
- Recovery can be sustained even as we bring inflation down
- Tighter financial conditions will help cool demand; Financial conditions are already tightening
- We should see some return to historic service demand; As pandemic lifts we should see more demand for services and less pressure in durables
- There is plenty of room for businesses to trim job openings
- I don't see Fed tightening policy as not being consistent with bringing inflation down and sustaining recovery
- Too early to have confidence in the post-war new normal
- Neutral rate may continue to be at low historic level; We need to see how economy evolves
- It will take more time than anybody would have thought to go back to pre-pandemic norms
- Balance sheet reductions may start in June after decision made in May
- Higher mortgage rates reflect a shift in Fed policy outlook
- We are tightening monetary policy 'methodically'; Don't want to focus on pace of rate hikes
- Combined effects will bring policy to a neutral level in late 2022
- I don't have a 'stopping rule' per se on rates
Click to expand...

When you guys read the notes, do you look at it from a perspective of:

A) that they believe everything they're saying and will act accordingly?
Or
B) that they're full of shit, so who knows how they'll respond?
 
Aldarion

Aldarion

Egg Nazi
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Furry said:
Most modern cars are designed to withstand it. Forget when that started 15+ years ago? This will burn up the engines of poors, though.
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This is a good point, it makes this even more regressive than the usual Dem anti-gas policies. Now us poors get hit twice - rising gas costs are a larger fraction of our income AND the shit gas blends will wreck our engines.
 
Zog

Zog

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Aldarion said:
This is a good point, it makes this even more regressive than the usual Dem anti-gas policies. Now us poors get hit twice - rising gas costs are a larger fraction of our income AND the shit gas blends will wreck our engines.
Click to expand...

Just buy a Tesla fuckin poors! We gave everyone $1400 checks like 2 years ago, no reason you couldn't have bought an EV.
 
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Aldarion

Aldarion

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I've been wanting to bring up DNA sequencing for a while. This was just a research technology for a long time but covid officially changed that - people speculated about personalized medicine blah blah blah for a decade. But once we started sequencing covid samples on an unprecedented scale to identify variants, those speculations became irrelevant. DNA sequencing is now health care.

There are two major companies worth watching here from the perspective of the technology. Illumina (ILMN) has the DNA sequencing market locked down currently, this is by far the leading tech. It beat all the older platforms and its what everyone does now, for the most part.

Nanopore (ONTTF) looked like another promising tech that would go nowhere for many years. But its here now, fully in production mode, and beats Illumina in several important ways.
  • Read length - Illumina can only read short DNA sequences which then have to be pieced back together computationally. (This is not always accurate or even possible). Nanopore reads are so long they can read entire Bacterial chromosomes or genomes.
  • Instrument cost - all previous DNA sequencing technologies required expensive instruments (100k-1M). Only major sequencing centers could afford these. The Nanopore "MinION", the first truly third-generation sequencing technology, costs $1k. Individual labs are buying these. I bought one myself (havent had time to do any work with it yet to be honest). This massively expands the market for sequencing.

The DNA sequencing industry works on the same model as printers - you have to buy the consumables from the manufacturer; thats where they make their money. The advent of $1k sequencers with the huge expansion of buyers (individual labs instead of universities) means they're setting themselves up to sell a whole lot of consumables.

ILMN trades at $349 and doesnt look like its done terribly well as an investment over the past year. ONTTF trades at <$5 if you can find a way to buy it -- currently neither Fidelity or Wells Fargo offer trades on this stock.

Purely based on the tech, this company *should* steal a whole bunch of the DNA sequencing market (not all, since Illumina does offer some technical advantages for some applications). I'll buy some when it can be bought again.

But even from a noob perspective its clear ONTTF is struggling as a company compared with ILMN. If any investors want to look into these companies I'd be curious to hear your takes on the financial side.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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For those playing at home, I expect GOOGL to bounce in the $2500 neighborhood if we get there today. 20:1 split on the horizon.

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Jysin

Jysin

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Attempting a bounce here at the SPY low of yesterday. If we give it up, I expect some heavier selling into the close.
 
Zog

Zog

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I sold at just barely less than break even, I made a bad play and went 6% down... Not going to risk shorts covering and have it boom back and be down 6% at close.

The narrative that this is peak inflation was obvious and it was definitely all over after the CPI bounce.

I expect the narrative to have more legs... going forward.
 
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