Investing General Discussion

Mist

Mist

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I have been thinking about this and if we continue on this trajectory for a year or two more, I might retire and then take one of those shitty min wage jobs for $20 an hour. No responsibility, shitpost on FOH all day while ignoring customers, and put 50% of my salary into maxing out my 401k. The math really isnt all that bad to be honest.
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At my last job we had a VP retire after getting in a big fight with the CEO, and go work for Home Depot just to get health insurance and cap out his 401K using exactly this logic. And by "work for Home Depot" I don't mean corporate, I just mean manage the customer service desk the professional contractors use at one of the larger local stores.
 
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Kirun

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Retail is going to be one of the hardest hit industries, at least durables. Non-durables will fare much better, but Home Depot is almost 100% durables. Stores like that are going to get absolutely devastated once the train really starts de-railing.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Mist said:
At my last job we had a VP retire after getting in a big fight with the CEO, and go work for Home Depot just to get health insurance and cap out his 401K using exactly this logic. And by "work for Home Depot" I don't mean corporate, I just mean manage the customer service desk the professional contractors use at one of the larger local stores.
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I wasnt joking. Life is a numbers game for me. the other option is to retire then open a business with a home office so I can write off a ton of expenses while still collecting SS. Again fully legal if done correctly.

1656361243119.png
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Kirun said:
Retail is going to be one of the hardest hit industries, at least durables. Non-durables will fare much better, but Home Depot is almost 100% durables. Stores like that are going to get absolutely devastated once the train really starts de-railing.
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But who do they keep on the payroll? 25-year old Shaniqua who cant read or write or the retired VP looking to make min wage and with 10% effort outwork just about anyone.
 
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Kirun

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Sanrith Descartes said:
But who do they keep on the payroll? 25-year old Shaniqua who cant read or write or the retired VP looking to make min wage and with 10% effort outwork just about anyone.
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Depends. Do they get tax breaks for hiring "diversity"?
 
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Mist

Mist

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Kirun said:
Retail is going to be one of the hardest hit industries, at least durables. Non-durables will fare much better, but Home Depot is almost 100% durables. Stores like that are going to get absolutely devastated once the train really starts de-railing.
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I do not expect retail to be one of the hardest hit industries at all. Demand for stuff is still dramatically outpacing supply of stuff and retail has already been through the crucible, meaning weak retail has already died off.

The hardest hit industries are going to be bloated tech unicorns, both in the creative space like Netflix but also the fintech and payments grifters.
 
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Locnar

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Mist said:
At my last job we had a VP retire after getting in a big fight with the CEO, and go work for Home Depot just to get health insurance and cap out his 401K using exactly this logic. And by "work for Home Depot" I don't mean corporate, I just mean manage the customer service desk the professional contractors use at one of the larger local stores.
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This is exactly what I do. Work for the health insurance and benefits, and just enough to max out 401k (and going forward Roth, since I found out recently ive been breaking the earned income rule with my contributions...). Oh and HSA.

I think a LOT of middle aged people do this. I wonder how big the exodus would be though if they enacted universal health care and the last worthwhile reason for keeping a job for an already established middle aged person goes away.

Labor shortage now? Do universal health care and it would make the current situation look like childs play.
 
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Mist

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Locnar said:
This is exactly what I do. Work for the health insurance and benefits, and just enough to max out 401k (and going forward Roth, since I found out recently ive been breaking the earned income rule with my contributions...). Oh and HSA.

I think a LOT of middle aged people do this. I wonder how big the exodus would be though if they enacted universal health care and the last worthwhile reason for keeping a job for an already established middle aged person goes away.

Labor shortage now? Do universal health care and it would make the current situation look like childs play.
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That's why almost nobody on the left actually argues for universal healthcare, merely single-payer healthcare.
 
Locnar

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That's why almost nobody on the left actually argues for universal healthcare, merely single-payer healthcare.
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What is the difference? single-payer meaning like medicare for all? That would do just fine for me.
 
Gravel

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I have been thinking about this and if we continue on this trajectory for a year or two more, I might retire and then take one of those shitty min wage jobs for $20 an hour. No responsibility, shitpost on FOH all day while ignoring customers, and put 50% of my salary into maxing out my 401k. The math really isnt all that bad to be honest.
Click to expand...
You just discovered the concept of "barista FIRE." Essentially where you have enough to coast as long as you cover your living expenses (which is significantly less than saving for investment, obviously, since your subtract all the savings and additional taxes of higher income).
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
You just discovered the concept of "barista FIRE." Essentially where you have enough to coast as long as you cover your living expenses (which is significantly less than saving for investment, obviously, since your subtract all the savings and additional taxes of higher income).
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The real trick will be selling the house and using the profits to buy the replacement outright while simultaneously sending all of my clients to my wife's business instead of mine :cool:
 
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Gravel

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I will say, too, that that concept is part of why I don't worry about early retirement too much. We'll be fine for at least several years drawing down our cash, and if it starts to look like we're in an "oh shit" situation (our sequence of returns was bad at the front end and we need to salvage it), it only really requires going back to work part time and making just enough to cover a portion of a year's expenses. The equivalent withdrawal rate on just covering our expenses is astronomical from a math standpoint. If you can pull in even $20k in a year, that's $20k you're not drawing down, which also means that $20k that stays in your accounts can continue to grow.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
I will say, too, that that concept is part of why I don't worry about early retirement too much. We'll be fine for at least several years drawing down our cash, and if it starts to look like we're in an "oh shit" situation (our sequence of returns was bad at the front end and we need to salvage it), it only really requires going back to work part time and making just enough to cover a portion of a year's expenses. The equivalent withdrawal rate on just covering our expenses is astronomical from a math standpoint. If you can pull in even $20k in a year, that's $20k you're not drawing down, which also means that $20k that stays in your accounts can continue to grow.
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You forgot the most important part. Marry a much younger wife so when you retire she has to keep working and support you while you play games and shit post on FOH.
 
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Kirun

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Mist said:
Demand for stuff is still dramatically outpacing supply of stuff and retail has already been through the crucible, meaning weak retail has already died off.
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You're 100% wrong. What happened during China Virus is that demand for durables shot through the fucking roof, because the services side of the economy was extinguished overnight - it was one of the only places that money could go. Once restrictions started to ease, demand for durables began to wane, as it moved back to services. Problem is, when nobody has any fucking money due to inflation making it worthless, demand for durables and services goes down.

Like I said, non-durables will mostly do fine (because it covers things like food, obviously). But, I expect retailers on the durable side to really start taking a fucking beating. Hell, Target has already publicly stated they have too much inventory on-hand. Why do you think that'd be?! Hmm.... 🤔
 
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Falstaff said:
is it because they bought too much stuff?
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Too much stuff and it arrived later than expected I would bet especially on the packaged goods and apparel side. Plus slowing demand for durables. Furniture and electronics especially also slow down fast
 
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Zog

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SQQQ 52.08-56.73.

It might go up tomorrow but we're just about at support so, fuck it I'll take 9%.

The market gets all assbackwards whenever powell speaks. Will see how things go, still eagerly awaiting an opportunity to go long, i missed the $21 area on tqqq last time but how was i supposed to know everyone was betting on the fed capitulating?

TQQQ:
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Thinking it'll trade sideways between support/resistance lines until something pushes it one way. I still don't see Powell reversing QT/Rate hikes so I'm leaning to the downside but you never know... History shows the fed is a scared little bitch and we're already so far down.

QQQ:

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