Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
It's bad, but it's not this bad: https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article262293607.htmlIm posting it here because it stands up as one of the worst financial decisions in history.
Happy Bobby Bonilla Day!!!
If this doesn't mean anything to you, be prepared to read and facepalm...
Bobby Bonilla 'took the Mets to the woodshed' with his lucrative 25-year deal
The Mets pay Bobby Bonilla nearly $1.2 million each year on July 1. The deal is among the best for a player in sports history for several reasons.www.cnbc.com
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Jesus Christ. Fucking no one ever accused Elway of being smart. Just having a cannon for a left arm.
Ps.. how can a Walmart heir buy an NFL team? Doesnt the husband of another Walmart heir own another team? Was it the Rams?
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Mist
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Well, I think everyone is just realizing that the market is doing the thing that markets are actually supposed to do, price-finding, despite all the fuckery that the US government/fed/world governments have done to distort them.
Wages are finding their level, consumer prices are causing demand destruction and finding their level, unicorn equities are returning to sane valuations, commodities are regressing to the mean, we're entering a planned, manufactured recession on schedule, etc. Despite the best efforts of the dumbest fucking politicians on the planet over the past 3 (but really 10) years, nothing is fundamentally or structurally broken, and despite completely irrational bubbles like crypto, the market is still independent enough able to do the thing that the market is supposed to do, pricing. The firewalls have basically held.
Remember that we were technically supposed to enter a recession in August 2019 the last time the bond yields inverted, but it was forestalled by loose monetary policy, low taxes, extremely high spending, VC hopium, media hypium, etc.
There's probably some shoe left to drop but we've already survived so much at this point that people feel like the market can withstand a few more pieces of bad news.
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Tmac
Adventurer
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This is hopium imo. The problem is that we still won’t know for a few more years how hard shit got broke during COVID.
We’re still only six months into seeing shit start to normalize. It seems naive to think it’s done and relatively clear skies are ahead.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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I don't think this is true. The economy generally lags behind macro policy by ~18-24 months. As long as we don't keep doing dumb shit (big, unlikely if) this should be relatively close to the ground truth.
It's not fundamentally or structurally broken, there's just way too much of it, which will eventually get priced into equities on the way back up, because there's no way we're going to find a way to destroy M2 money. The dollar is still incredibly strong vs other currencies. It does not appear to be debased, despite the fact that so much of it was printed via various mechanisms.
If you want to keep trying to time the absolute bottom go for it, but you're almost certainly going to miss the boat, like a whole lot of liberals missed the boat the whole time Trump was president thinking "oh this guy is an idiot the stock market is going to crash any day now, just you wait and see." The fact is, the stock market did crash under Trump, has already crashed already under Biden, and you're very unlikely to time a better bottom than we have right now.
(FWIW, I timed the bottom very well after the COVID recovery, but I still waited too long and could have bought in closer to the bottom rather than buying in on the way back up. I then had a giant stockpile of cash from all the money I made during COVID and couldn't really spend on anything, which I put in not quite at the high but not far enough down the downslope.)
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Burns
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This may be of interest, the following website tracks various market things, including congressional disclosers:
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Sanrith Descartes
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Flobee
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USD is the ship sinking the slowest, but its still sinking. DXY ripping is causing a ton of unrest around the world and other currencies debase. Highest since 2002. So long as EURO and JPY keep getting wrecked USD will strengthen and risk-on assets will trend downward. Japan has driven off the MMT cliff and EU is heading into winter with no reliable power source (outside RU lol...who won't accept EURO). I'd expect continued currency weakness (combined 70% of DXY weight). This isn't really the formula for a rebound in equities.. we'll see I guess
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Jysin
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Don't worry, they got this:
12:41 (UK) Business Min: We now have 2 coal plants available this winter and are in ongoing negotiations for a third
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Sanrith Descartes
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Jysin
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14:00 *(US) FOMC JUNE MEETING MINUTES: MANY FOMC MEMBERS SAW SIGNIFICANT RISK OF 'ENTRENCHED INFLATION'; 'EVEN MORE RESTRICTIVE' POLICY IS POSSIBLE IF ELEVATED INFLATION PERSISTS
- Many concerned by long-run price expectations drifting up; Outlook calls for restrictive policy stance
- Participants at June meeting concurred that inflation outlook had deteriorated, which warranted a larger 75bps hike
- Saw 50bps or 75bps hike at July meeting as likely
- Participants saw little evidence to date' that supply constraints were easing enough to help control inflation
- Officials recognized policy could slow growth for a time
- Likely will take some time for inflation to move down to 2% target
- Participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.
- At the current juncture, with inflation remaining well above the Committee's objective, participants remarked that moving to a restrictive stance of policy was required to meet the Committee's legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. In addition, such a stance would be appropriate from a risk management perspective because it would put the Committee in a better position to implement more restrictive policy if inflation came in higher than expected.
- Many concerned by long-run price expectations drifting up; Outlook calls for restrictive policy stance
- Participants at June meeting concurred that inflation outlook had deteriorated, which warranted a larger 75bps hike
- Saw 50bps or 75bps hike at July meeting as likely
- Participants saw little evidence to date' that supply constraints were easing enough to help control inflation
- Officials recognized policy could slow growth for a time
- Likely will take some time for inflation to move down to 2% target
- Participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.
- At the current juncture, with inflation remaining well above the Committee's objective, participants remarked that moving to a restrictive stance of policy was required to meet the Committee's legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. In addition, such a stance would be appropriate from a risk management perspective because it would put the Committee in a better position to implement more restrictive policy if inflation came in higher than expected.
