Investing General Discussion

Mist said:

lol "only in relation to other fiat currencies" as opposed to crypto which is just going to the moon, right? LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

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As opposed to food, commodities and durable goods. You know, things people have to buy no matter what... USD is debasing in real terms while gaining in value against other currencies. You can't measure inflation against other inflationary currencies.

Big Phoenix said:

Im sure all these people who have willyfully ignored their fiduciary role and outright lied are 100% honest about the totality of their trading.

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I would suspect almost all officials are going to follow reporting requirements, or they have some legal loophole.

It's much harder to prove a fiduciary duty was not met, vs having at least one autist investigator digging through trades pinging suspicious trades (so said investigator can then use that info to get a better job).

Lots of loopholes and end arounds (spouses etc) and definitely more than a few failures to report. People actively serving in congress shouldn't be able to trade while in office. Period.

Big Phoenix said:

One low hanging fruit already resigned for financial misconduct. You think the various chairs and jpowell arent fucking around? No way in hell they arent.

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*aren't fucking around in easy to prove ways...

-yes, I am of the opinion that they, like all super wealthy are using an army of lawyers to advise them on how best to grift and skim.

BOIL just casually up 24% mid morning, no biggie

also,

GDPNow said:

Latest estimate: -1.9 percent — July 7, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.9 percent on July 7, up from -2.1 percent on July 1.

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still negative, but a tiny bit less negative

Boomer investor move!



Quite solid zero risk strategy, but $10k limit is lame.

08:51 (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter, hawk): Fully supports 75bps hike at July meeting - CNBC interview
- Tremendous momentum in the economy shows 75bps move won't mean protracted economic damage
- On inflation by some estimates, things have not changed at all
- I've had to adapt on where I think policy should go; We need to move more aggressively
- Economy is starting to slow; First signs of slowdown are what we need
- This jobs report shows the economy is strong; There is still a lot of labor market moment
- These jobs numbers show just minor signs of slowing; We need more sustained and more significant slowing
- We're starting to inch in the right direction but need to see a lot more

Jysin said:

08:51 (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter, hawk): Fully supports 75bps hike at July meeting - CNBC interview
- Tremendous momentum in the economy shows 75bps move won't mean protracted economic damage
- On inflation by some estimates, things have not changed at all
- I've had to adapt on where I think policy should go; We need to move more aggressively
- Economy is starting to slow; First signs of slowdown are what we need
- This jobs report shows the economy is strong; There is still a lot of labor market moment
- These jobs numbers show just minor signs of slowing; We need more sustained and more significant slowing
- We're starting to inch in the right direction but need to see a lot more

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I wish these people weren't so full of shit.

Labor participation is at the lowest it's been since 1977. "Jobs numbers are great!" Fuck off. Like yeah, maybe they look good in comparison to when you shut down the entire economy, but that's not really what I'd call "healthy."

Looking at that chart, my intuition says we've been on on downward streak since early 2000s. The chart is basically showing the boomer generation retiring and Covid basically fast forwarding a lot of retirement plans. Especially if you consider where their investment portfolios went over the last 2 yrs. They ain't coming back. Period... unless we completely erode the value of the dollar via inflation to shit and everyone is forced back into work to pay for $20/gal gas and $10 loaves of bread.

Otherwise, you need to open the immigration floodgates or convince everyone to start procreating if you want those 2000s era labor numbers.

Replacement (of deaths) level birthrate is 2.1 per woman. We have been well under that for a while now and only declining further.

PS fun fact: UK hasn't seen replacement level birth rates in over 50 years. Yay immigration?

Many Americans were pushed into trying self-employment when millions of jobs vanished almost overnight in the early weeks of the pandemic. Others have taken the decision voluntary, quitting their jobs and no longer seeking to work for others. The so-called quits rate has surged in the past two years, with 4.3 million workers leaving in May alone.