Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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So you think various pharma companies are going to be unable to generic Humira because its complicated? Like, they haven't already done it and have just been waiting for expiry?
Investing General Discussion
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Mist
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As far as I know, manufacturing biologics takes pretty significant capital expenditure, and the expertise is limited. I don't think it'll be anywhere near trivial to produce it as a generic.
Moglyzoke Moogleman
Stock Pals VP of Shit Stocks
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Aldarion
Egg Nazi
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After some consideration, the more I thought about your answers the less satisfying they are.
I already addressed the point that individual investors don't make a measurable difference in share price. Already acknowledged. But exactly the same argument applies to boycotting, voting, or social media campaigns, which you seem to promote as a better alternative.
As for the "it doesnt hurt the company" argument - this had me for a while but then I thought more about it. You obviously can't hurt, or be angry at, a company. Its a non-entity, a legal fiction, a collection of people. Who are the people to blame? Who else can you hope to hold accountable but the owner of the company?
And in a publicly traded company that means the shareholders. They are the appropriate target, not an accident. they own the shit.
Again, nothing we do as traders make a measurable difference. Just like nothing we do as customers or voters or social media people makes a difference. Individually. The effects result from collective action, and adding our miniscule voice to the chorus of people saying "fuck you" to an evil company still matters ethically, in my view, whether it has a measurable effect on the company or not as an individual action. Its about not participating with evil.
The thing is, I think you think this too. Else why avoid tobacco companies?
fris
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The delay is a month I think, and they miss it more often than not. Even if it was day of, Pelosis buys are probably large enough to swing the price
Can't believe their allowed to trade. I mean, I can, but I don't like it
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Having a bad plan isnt saved by being emotionless in execution.
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Im not one dimensional. Im a hypocrite occasionally like everyone else. I acknowledge it. My quest for alpha exceeded my dislike for some companies. I do, however, always vote my shares for company decisions like board seats. So i am putting forth my meager voice.
If PM announced they were doubling their dividend tomorrow, it would be tough to say no.
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Zog
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This video is quite appropriate given the current topic.
It's funny him saying recency bias is a problem for investors when his entire thesis is recency bias because we've been in a bull run with qe for what seems like forever.
It's also quite telling he just assumes inflation will be vanquished and pe's will rocket without acknowledging what the fed vanquishing inflation will actually do to the economy to kill inflation.
It's funny him saying recency bias is a problem for investors when his entire thesis is recency bias because we've been in a bull run with qe for what seems like forever.
It's also quite telling he just assumes inflation will be vanquished and pe's will rocket without acknowledging what the fed vanquishing inflation will actually do to the economy to kill inflation.
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Mist
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Anecdote time:
None of our customers have put their major projects on hold or scaled them back, even the ones we thought might put projects on hold even before the current turbulence. These projects are multi-million dollar uplifts of core business systems to cloud-based systems. Also, none of these projects that involve Avaya phone/contact center systems have backed out or changed directions, despite Avaya's troubles.
We still have a >200million dollar backlog of bookings, for projects that can't complete due to lack of hardware (mostly Cisco still having supply chain issues on basic network shit, but also other vendors.) And most of our projects aren't very hardware-dependent, and we still have the backlog because it's such a bottleneck.
So, consumer-facing shit like streaming and social media might continue to go in the toilet and stay there for a while, but B2B tech/cloud/etc companies still seem strong.
I would look at stocks in companies that help other companies modernize their business systems, if you're looking for tech companies to invest in right now. Enabling hybrid/remote workforces, and enabling workers to do more work in less time, seems to be a big driver of these projects.
None of our customers have put their major projects on hold or scaled them back, even the ones we thought might put projects on hold even before the current turbulence. These projects are multi-million dollar uplifts of core business systems to cloud-based systems. Also, none of these projects that involve Avaya phone/contact center systems have backed out or changed directions, despite Avaya's troubles.
We still have a >200million dollar backlog of bookings, for projects that can't complete due to lack of hardware (mostly Cisco still having supply chain issues on basic network shit, but also other vendors.) And most of our projects aren't very hardware-dependent, and we still have the backlog because it's such a bottleneck.
So, consumer-facing shit like streaming and social media might continue to go in the toilet and stay there for a while, but B2B tech/cloud/etc companies still seem strong.
I would look at stocks in companies that help other companies modernize their business systems, if you're looking for tech companies to invest in right now. Enabling hybrid/remote workforces, and enabling workers to do more work in less time, seems to be a big driver of these projects.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Gonna dump all my other play money if I can put them into that ETF. Screw playing the game handicapped.
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Burns
Golden Baronet of the Realm
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Members of congress have 45 days to report their trades, so if that's what they are making an ETF on, it will be way behind the ball and possibly help the politician's trade positions.
You can see what congress is reporting here:
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OU Ariakas
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I'll give you another prediction from me, someone that has been at the front of IT trends for almost 2 decades. The now is investing in companies that are hosting and moving applications into the cloud. SAP, ServiceNow, Cisco, Microsoft, AWS, Google, etc are now in the process of onboarding medium sized businesses with their cloud offerings.
The future are the Middleware and Platform as-a-service companies that enable any companies to integrate their home-grown applications with the previously mentioned SaaS applications that will allow them to truly exit the datacenter and not have to worry about Primary/Disaster Recovery locations and all the gear that goes inside of them. Companies that allow multi-cloud protection without actually having to sign contracts directly with the providers (M$, AWS, Google) will also do very well.
I am not some genius, but I saw the industry twenty years ago saying small businesses would never use virtual servers, then they said that small businesses would never need SANs (storage area networks), and now they are saying they will never full jump into the cloud. These were all based on the relative cost and now virtualization and SANs are commodities in datacenters. I resisted the idea that cloud would be commodity but the evidence is piling up that it will be within a decade.
Oh, and "near cloud" providers (Rackspace and other large co-lo companies) will also make big plays by becoming Cloud-as-a-service to survive.
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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I think the homerun is going to be finding an old boomer, left for dead, cash cow tech stock (CSCO, IBM type companies) that somehow reinvents itself as a big cloud player. They will need the name, cash and skill to make a real challenge to the big cloud boys. More than likely though those companies instead will decide to play it safe until they eventually pull a Kodak.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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My mind was blown when the DoD started using the cloud for classified projects. I went out to Colorado Springs right before covid to pitch our program to a group (Cloud One) that was a joint venture between the Air Force and some tech company.
They told us about how they had the support of some General who convinced the accreditation people that they could handle it all, and off they went. For anyone who knows how ridiculous the bureaucracy is, it was fascinating. It was very much like the typical tech company (open work spaces, places to goof off, kegs in the break room, etc), but a bunch of the people there were active duty military.
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Mist
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Yeah, I think the big growth in the near future is going to be a shift away from Big Tech to "medium tech" aka companies that get the thousands of midsize enterprises up to secure, modern standards on cost-effective solutions.
NetApp strikes me as a possible opportunity but AWS and Microsoft are still safe growth stocks.
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Mist
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Zog
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More doomer/gold bulls or just common sense?
I've always been curious if the market would just roar to insane levels on dollar destruction or would investors just dump assets?
Strong dollar is negative for assets, a collapse of the dollar also a negative for assets PRICED in dollars? There's a bit of an odd situation here where the collapse of the dollar might put us in emerging markets shoes with increased costs for doing business overseas.
Curious what some of your opinions would be on market reaction if the dollar would start to fall, I would assume markets would start to climb on a weakening dollar, to a point where investors start worrying the dollar is falling and doesn't stop.
I've always been curious if the market would just roar to insane levels on dollar destruction or would investors just dump assets?
Strong dollar is negative for assets, a collapse of the dollar also a negative for assets PRICED in dollars? There's a bit of an odd situation here where the collapse of the dollar might put us in emerging markets shoes with increased costs for doing business overseas.
Curious what some of your opinions would be on market reaction if the dollar would start to fall, I would assume markets would start to climb on a weakening dollar, to a point where investors start worrying the dollar is falling and doesn't stop.
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