Investing General Discussion

Furry

Furry

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Zog said:
More doomer/gold bulls or just common sense?

I've always been curious if the market would just roar to insane levels on dollar destruction or would investors just dump assets?

Strong dollar is negative for assets, a collapse of the dollar also a negative for assets PRICED in dollars? There's a bit of an odd situation here where the collapse of the dollar might put us in emerging markets shoes with increased costs for doing business overseas.

Curious what some of your opinions would be on market reaction if the dollar would start to fall, I would assume markets would start to climb on a weakening dollar, to a point where investors start worrying the dollar is falling and doesn't stop.
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Long term I think the dollar is entering rough territory, but short term I think it’ll get stronger. Essentially, any fundamental indicators you look at as being poor in America are generally worse in Europe. Europe is positioned extremely poorly for a major recession, and there’s basically no chance that the current recession doesn’t significantly worsen in the coming year for them. As such, I think money fleeing for safe spots from that mess will have a tendency to come to the dollar.

From there, interest rates with the already atrocious debt market world wide could become a severe contagion to the global economy. But will the dollar collapse? It’s unlikely unless countries move to isolate themselves from the dollar in international trade. A shift of sentiment like that could be the cause of quite the dollar meltdown, and it definitely could happen. We are operating with the proper amount of financial hubris to set the stage, though.
 
OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Mist said:
AVYA could technically fit this bill you know.
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Honestly, if Avaya could get their shit together and move themselves to a PaaS model where their own techs were the ones integrating the customers into the platform that included a video conferencing, messaging, and softphone that had integration into M365/Google Workspace then it would be exactly that. The key is offering the complete package that integrates with Microsoft and the turnkey integration for less than Microsoft offers to do the same. Cisco fails because they offer the complete package but integration is difficult and expensive. RingCentral fails because they won't fucking make it easy for large companies to work with them.
 
C

Creslin

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Furry said:
Long term I think the dollar is entering rough territory, but short term I think it’ll get stronger. Essentially, any fundamental indicators you look at as being poor in America are generally worse in Europe. Europe is positioned extremely poorly for a major recession, and there’s basically no chance that the current recession doesn’t significantly worsen in the coming year for them. As such, I think money fleeing for safe spots from that mess will have a tendency to come to the dollar.

From there, interest rates with the already atrocious debt market world wide could become a severe contagion to the global economy. But will the dollar collapse? It’s unlikely unless countries move to isolate themselves from the dollar in international trade. A shift of sentiment like that could be the cause of quite the dollar meltdown, and it definitely could happen. We are operating with the proper amount of financial hubris to set the stage, though.
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Yup, for as fucked up as the US is everyone else is even worse. The few countries that are well run are too small to ever replace the dollar or are using the euro so are lumped in with germany and its retardation.

China is too unstable and lacks transparency.

One thing that I think falls off the radar vis a vis JP is the dollars stability and the fact that you can trust it won't just enter hyper inflation is one major reason the dollar remains the best of bad options. You can't say the same of CNY. Maintaining reserve currency status is the most important US national security goal by far, everything else revolves around that.
 
Haus

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Mist said:
Every prediction of the downfall of the dollar in the past 20 years has been wrong so far, despite our best efforts to devalue our own currency and run our country like a complete clownshow.
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Well, regardless of how much of a shitshow USD is, the unfortunate fact is that every other country which predominantly does it's reserves in USD is essentially building a house upon our shitshow.

The one thing I think emerging which might challenge that would be if/when BRICS honestly establishes an alternative to using the USD systems, USD as a reserve currency, and SWIFT for banking communication/transactions. And they're slowly stepping closer and closer to that. People WANT to say that bitcoin is going to do this, but at the very best would be if BRICS adopted it as the international standard for payment reconciliation, essentially BTC replaces SWIFT.

The US was gifted this magical golden goose of being the international default reserve currency at Bretton Woods in the 30's. The question is what would spur countries to walk away from that. Even the IMF is starting to push forward the SDR as an alternative reserve currency, which would also take that distinction away from the USD. The reality is if USD ever stops being the default reserve currency then all hell breaks loose, because then the US actually has to worry about paying it's debts without just printing more money.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Haus said:
Well, regardless of how much of a shitshow USD is, the unfortunate fact is that every other country which predominantly does it's reserves in USD is essentially building a house upon our shitshow.

The one thing I think emerging which might challenge that would be if/when BRICS honestly establishes an alternative to using the USD systems, USD as a reserve currency, and SWIFT for banking communication/transactions. And they're slowly stepping closer and closer to that. People WANT to say that bitcoin is going to do this, but at the very best would be if BRICS adopted it as the international standard for payment reconciliation, essentially BTC replaces SWIFT.

The US was gifted this magical golden goose of being the international default reserve currency at Bretton Woods in the 30's. The question is what would spur countries to walk away from that. Even the IMF is starting to push forward the SDR as an alternative reserve currency, which would also take that distinction away from the USD. The reality is if USD ever stops being the default reserve currency then all hell breaks loose, because then the US actually has to worry about paying it's debts without just printing more money.
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China is a manipulated currency. It isn't a legitimate float.
 
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OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Haus said:
Well, regardless of how much of a shitshow USD is, the unfortunate fact is that every other country which predominantly does it's reserves in USD is essentially building a house upon our shitshow.

The one thing I think emerging which might challenge that would be if/when BRICS honestly establishes an alternative to using the USD systems, USD as a reserve currency, and SWIFT for banking communication/transactions. And they're slowly stepping closer and closer to that. People WANT to say that bitcoin is going to do this, but at the very best would be if BRICS adopted it as the international standard for payment reconciliation, essentially BTC replaces SWIFT.

The US was gifted this magical golden goose of being the international default reserve currency at Bretton Woods in the 30's. The question is what would spur countries to walk away from that. Even the IMF is starting to push forward the SDR as an alternative reserve currency, which would also take that distinction away from the USD. The reality is if USD ever stops being the default reserve currency then all hell breaks loose, because then the US actually has to worry about paying it's debts without just printing more money.
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We weren't gifted it, we bought it. We continue to pay for it by allowing global trade to exist via our navy. If a serious attempt to move away from the dollar ever happened then the administration would just let those countries know that if they don't want to trade in the US dollar then they provide their own trade route security.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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VIX almost erased a nearly 5% rise this morning. Looks like people are betting the FED only rocks 75 basis points.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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The Cramer effect in full glory.





1663600687201.png
 
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Zog

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Sanrith Descartes said:
VIX almost erased a nearly 5% rise this morning. Looks like people are betting the FED only rocks 75 basis points.
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Makes sense, .75 is still historically a pretty big hike with the fed still anxious about overdoing it and lagging effects from said hikes.

A few interns that I watch in the tech sector are still getting offers, massive doom and depression isn't even on the radar for big tech in the coming years.

Apple is offsetting the reds today, keeping things optimistic.

As much as people want to get in at the previous lows for qqq to *buy* I doubt we will get there with all the massive amount of puts and shorts.

Its just unfortunate simply because intelligent investing has us buying at support and we might not get to.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Zog said:
Makes sense, .75 is still historically a pretty big hike with the fed still anxious about overdoing it and lagging effects from said hikes.

A few interns that I watch in the tech sector are still getting offers, massive doom and depression isn't even on the radar for big tech in the coming years.

Apple is offsetting the reds today, keeping things optimistic.

As much as people want to get in at the previous lows for qqq to *buy* I doubt we will get there with all the massive amount of puts and shorts.

Its just unfortunate simply because intelligent investing has us buying at support and we might not get to.
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Its why technical levels are only one variable. Sometimes you gotta play the "i know that you know that I know that you know, so I know what you will do next" game.
 
Jysin

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It was all over the tech channels over the weekend that EVGA has cut ties with NVIDIA and will no longer be making any graphics cards using their tech anymore. Pretty big deal in the PC gaming world. They had something like a 30 year close relationship and EVGA has one of the best returns policies of the bunch. I am sure the other manufacturers like Gigabyte / MSI / etc will be happy to just take the EVGA allocations and fill the void.

The interesting notes were from the top staff of EVGA basically stating NVDIA are a nightmare to work with and there are absolute piles of 3000 series cards unsold (crash of crypto mining) and the demand for cards has just fallen off a cliff. NVIDIA are undercutting their own partners to try and shift all of the unsold products and there have been rumors of delaying 4000 series until old stock have been shifted.

There's no coincidence there was a massive shortage of GPUs when Bitcoin was exploding in price and now there is a glut of supply after the crypto crash of 2022.

Pic attached of NVIDIA undercutting price vs their partners:

cards.jpg
 
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Flobee

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Jysin said:
There's no coincidence there was a massive shortage of GPUs when Bitcoin was exploding in price and now there is a glut of supply after the crypto crash of 2022.
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Just for clarity, Bitcoin has nothing to do with GPU mining. That was largely Ethereum, which with the move to PoS is no longer a factor.
 
Jysin

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Flobee said:
Just for clarity, Bitcoin has nothing to do with GPU mining. That was largely Ethereum, which with the move to PoS is no longer a factor.
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My point was the overall run up of crypto and the demand (and subsequent fall) of GPUs was lockstep in the rise and fall of that crypto market.

Etherium moving to Proof of Stake is just further reduced mining demand on an already flooded market of gfx cards.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
It was all over the tech channels over the weekend that EVGA has cut ties with NVIDIA and will no longer be making any graphics cards using their tech anymore. Pretty big deal in the PC gaming world. They had something like a 30 year close relationship and EVGA has one of the best returns policies of the bunch. I am sure the other manufacturers like Gigabyte / MSI / etc will be happy to just take the EVGA allocations and fill the void.

The interesting notes were from the top staff of EVGA basically stating NVDIA are a nightmare to work with and there are absolute piles of 3000 series cards unsold (crash of crypto mining) and the demand for cards has just fallen off a cliff. NVIDIA are undercutting their own partners to try and shift all of the unsold products and there have been rumors of delaying 4000 series until old stock have been shifted.

There's no coincidence there was a massive shortage of GPUs when Bitcoin was exploding in price and now there is a glut of supply after the crypto crash of 2022.

Pic attached of NVIDIA undercutting price vs their partners:

View attachment 434085
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It makes total sense. In a thriving economy you make sure your vendor partners are happy and doing well. In a market like we are experiencing it becomes dog eat dog and survival of the fittest. It sucks NVDA is undercutting vendors and yes it will cause some serious short-term anger, but at the end of the day they gotta do what they can do to survive.
 
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