Investing General Discussion
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Lumi
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Paperhanded my TQQQ puts at 30 cents for breakeven. I have zero faith in this rally. The premium aint worth the risk right now.
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Arden
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Lumi
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Sanrith Descartes
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One of the odder things going on, in a world of really odd things, is Gold has moved lower the last six months as inflation has moved higher. Amd its not like BTC took its place as the inflation hedge.
Mist
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Moved lower vs the dollar specifically, not vs other currencies.
Also I believe Russia has been selling off insane amounts of gold.
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Mist
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Our view of everything is skewed because of the strong dollar.
Our equities are more expensive for foreign investors to buy because the dollar is so strong, therefore this depresses the price of equities.
Our bonds are more expensive for foreign investors to buy because the dollar is so strong, which means those bonds have to pay out more interest to get foreign investors to buy them.
From the outside looking in, America is in great shape. But once you're inside the system and transacting dollars for dollars, things start to look weird. But just think for a moment how much more expensive oil would be if it wasn't so much more difficult for other countries to buy those same barrels at dollar prices.
Our equities are more expensive for foreign investors to buy because the dollar is so strong, therefore this depresses the price of equities.
Our bonds are more expensive for foreign investors to buy because the dollar is so strong, which means those bonds have to pay out more interest to get foreign investors to buy them.
From the outside looking in, America is in great shape. But once you're inside the system and transacting dollars for dollars, things start to look weird. But just think for a moment how much more expensive oil would be if it wasn't so much more difficult for other countries to buy those same barrels at dollar prices.
Sanrith Descartes
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You miss a very big variable with the US dollar. All those trillions in foreign debt that are dollar denominted. Shithole countries have to buy dollars with their worthless currency to make their debt payments in dollars.
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Mist
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I'm not missing that, it's just not relevant to why the prices of US assets, like equities and bonds, are behaving strangely.
Yes, it drives up demand for dollars, but that's not quite the same thing as what I'm talking about.
The strong dollar weakens demand for other asset classes.
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
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This is straight selling homeboys. I think I saw one quick uptick that got insta-gibbed by the selling wave.
Welp, I've definitely hit my "turn off the news and go outside for a while" trigger.
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Mist
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LOL
www.cnbc.com
"Despite the Fed's best efforts to put workers out of a job and scare the remainder with the threat of poverty, people continue to be employed." -paraphrasing, slightly.
Amazing what the job market is like with the borders effectively closed for 2.5 years.
Jobless claims hit five-month low despite Fed's efforts to slow labor market
Initial filings for unemployment claims fell last week to their lowest level in five months, a sign that the labor market is strengthening.
"Despite the Fed's best efforts to put workers out of a job and scare the remainder with the threat of poverty, people continue to be employed." -paraphrasing, slightly.
Amazing what the job market is like with the borders effectively closed for 2.5 years.
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