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Sanrith Descartes

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- Countries do not do coordinated monetary policy with one another; Their mandates are for the domestic economy
Jon Hamm Yes GIF
 

Kiroy

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More transcript:

- Does not see a hump shape in rates; I see us raising rates and holding them there until we get inflation close to 2%

- Expects inflation to end 2023 closer to 3% than 2%; We have to be prepared for inflation to be more persistent than we expect

lol good joke into cope
 

Hateyou

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Well demand should ease soon. I know a couple people in industries that are leading indicators of recessions. One has cut back to four days a week and is getting prepared for layoffs, the other has managers flat out ranking their employees for layoffs. I imagine the news headlines this winter will be just like 2008, starting in the next few weeks.
 
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Creslin

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Well demand should ease soon. I know a couple people in industries that are leading indicators of recessions. One has cut back to four days a week and is getting prepared for layoffs, the other has managers flat out ranking their employees for layoffs. I imagine the news headlines this winter will be just like 2008, starting in the next few weeks.
Ya seeing major retailers starting to slash receipts, literally cutting 30% off their on order. That will have a cascading impact as everyone cuts back on marketing and project spend and freezes open roles.

I don’t think this is baked into earnings forecasts either because the demand from consumers is just really weak.

the Nike situation is going to play out across many companies.
 
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Fogel

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Times like these are when I'm glad I work in the food industry. I still remember in 08 when everyone was talking about layoffs and our plant was constantly hiring. Even when times are tough, people still need to eat.
 
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Gravel

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Well demand should ease soon. I know a couple people in industries that are leading indicators of recessions. One has cut back to four days a week and is getting prepared for layoffs, the other has managers flat out ranking their employees for layoffs. I imagine the news headlines this winter will be just like 2008, starting in the next few weeks.
Yep, I pointed out the similarities in timelines between this and 2007-2009. We just had the first little 20% drop that came before the actual crash. The real economic disaster is still coming.

Except this time we have the bonus of 70s style inflation and a decade of QE.

It's going to hurt, maybe bad enough we don't have any economy left.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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the other has managers flat out ranking their employees for layoffs.
I always hated having to do that. Invariably one or two of my peers would lie and rate ever one of their employees 10/10 in all categories so they didnt have to deal with operating with less headcount. Cock Suckers.
 

Hateyou

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I always hated having to do that. Invariably one or two of my peers would lie and rate ever one of their employees 10/10 in all categories so they didnt have to deal with operating with less headcount. Cock Suckers.
That’s where upper management should enforce stacked ranking within each department. 10% or whatever layoff % they’re going for, of your people must be rated as a 1.
 

Mist

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Not seeing any downturn in enterprise IT projects or consulting work. Backlog of project bookings is enormous.

That said, employer is looking for ways to cut costs anyway.

The absurdly strong dollar means it's incredibly cheap to hire people overseas right now, so they're looking for any excuse to cut US-based workers, so they're using cost-cutting and the current market scaremonger as an excuse, despite high bookings/demand.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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That’s where upper management should enforce stacked ranking within each department. 10% or whatever layoff % they’re going for, of your people must be rated as a 1.
Upper level management. They learned their corrupt way as low and mid level management.
 
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Wingz

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Opec taking oil back to 100 a barrel? Also developing countries to default on debt... UN wants to spend spend spend to prevent collapse.

 
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Sanrith Descartes

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I should clarify that is the US ADR and i honestly dont know the ADR share ratio. Im too lazy to look up the European exchange where the original stock trades but I am assuming it isnt much better. CS is so intertwined in Europe that I cant see the EU letting it fail. I am guess either a forced marriage or a straight up bailout. It needs to fail because their trading desk basically does really stupid risky shit and is not held accountable so they dont change behaviors.