Investing General Discussion

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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All the MJ names on the move following:

15:01 (US) Biden Admin to ask officials to review how marijuana is scheduled under federal law and urging state governors to do the same
- Biden to take executive action to end the current US approach to marijuana and directs US Attorney General to issues certificates of pardon to eligible individuals who were convicted under federal marijuana possession charges, which could impact thousands of people
 

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a Thousand Thread-Ban Wars
<Gold Donor>
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All the MJ names on the move following:

15:01 (US) Biden Admin to ask officials to review how marijuana is scheduled under federal law and urging state governors to do the same
- Biden to take executive action to end the current US approach to marijuana and directs US Attorney General to issues certificates of pardon to eligible individuals who were convicted under federal marijuana possession charges, which could impact thousands of people
So glad we have a Congress to pass laws. These fucks have no idea that they aren't kings. This is why secession isnt the answer. 1776 is.
 

Mist

Mythic Spellslinger
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They probably think that the fed may back off now that the desired outcome is being achieved.
The desired outcome is bringing down inflation.

That doesn't seem to be happening.

Also "inflation" in business news media-speak is actually just code for 'wage demands from the paycheck-earning class.' CPI is irrelevant to them.

Every place I go still says "hiring all positions for all shifts." Every parking lot is full. Everywhere is busy.

Big business won't be satisfied until unemployment is back to 6-7%, workers are afraid they're going to lose their jobs every day, willing to work 60 hours a week with overtime pay, and never ask for raises.

If the powers-that-be need to blow up the economy for 2-3 years to do it, that doesn't matter to them. Their portfolios will tank but they won't be homeless, they'll still be rich and come out of the crash richer than ever, as usual.
 

Kirun

Buzzfeed Editor
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The desired outcome is bringing down inflation.

That doesn't seem to be happening.

Also "inflation" in business news media-speak is actually just code for 'wage demands from the paycheck-earning class.' CPI is irrelevant to them.

Every place I go still says "hiring all positions for all shifts." Every parking lot is full. Everywhere is busy.

Big business won't be satisfied until unemployment is back to 6-7%, workers are afraid they're going to lose their jobs every day, willing to work 60 hours a week with overtime pay, and never ask for raises.

If the powers-that-be need to blow up the economy for 2-3 years to do it, that doesn't matter to them. Their portfolios will tank but they won't be homeless, they'll still be rich and come out of the crash richer than ever, as usual.
Yup. A lot of the shit we're seeing is employers trying to wrestle back control of what was an employers market for DECADES. Now that the pendulum shifted so drastically and quickly to the employee side during China Virus, well..
 

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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If the powers-that-be need to blow up the economy for 2-3 years to do it, that doesn't matter to them. Their portfolios will tank but they won't be homeless, they'll still be rich and come out of the crash richer than ever, as usual.
I wonder if after 2008 the rich realized that holy shit, yeah, there's some short term pain with a massive economic collapse, but you come out of it way richer and it's kind of worth it.

2020 saw a massive shift in wealth, and this one is continuing the trend.
 
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Mist

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Yup. A lot of the shit we're seeing is employers trying to wrestle back control of what was an employers market for DECADES. Now that the pendulum shifted so drastically and quickly to the employee side during China Virus, well..
It was shifting for a while before China Virus. Really has been shifting since 2015 or so. Kung Flu just accelerated it much more dramatically, especially by triggering continued lockdowns hurting China.

But the strong dollar means that even if the rich take a hit temporarily, they're still able to gobble up tons of property elsewhere, and that global companies can use their dollars to hire elsewhere too.
 

Mist

Mythic Spellslinger
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Gee I wonder who will win in the end such a stumper.
Actually not sure.

Competent employees are in short supply on all ends of the paycheck spectrum, and no sign of that changing. With the manager class falling apart and the rise of hypermobile individual contributors, it's really hard to figure out what the near future will look like. On the lower end of the pay scale, people who will actually show up, do a competent job, and not freak-out at the pace of change in the modern workforce are also difficult to find.

Companies would have to stop fighting each other for good employees and given the efficiency of the job market these days given all the different job and resume sites, I just don't see that happening. Companies cutting the bottom 10% of the barrel of employees is not going to materially change the job market for people who actually show up and are competent.
 

Blazin

Creative Title
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Actually not sure.

Competent employees are in short supply on all ends of the paycheck spectrum, and no sign of that changing. With the manager class falling apart and the rise of hypermobile individual contributors, it's really hard to figure out what the near future will look like. On the lower end of the pay scale, people who will actually show up, do a competent job, and not freak-out at the pace of change in the modern workforce are also difficult to find.

Companies would have to stop fighting each other for good employees and given the efficiency of the job market these days given all the different job and resume sites, I just don't see that happening. Companies cutting the bottom 10% of the barrel of employees is not going to materially change the job market for people who actually show up and are competent.
100%, component employees have job security at 8% unemployment as much as at 3%. They aren’t the group subject to the tide.
 
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Creslin

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100%, component employees have job security at 8% unemployment as much as at 3%. They aren’t the group subject to the tide.
This is only somewhat true I think. I think the zirp policies have caused a lot of companies/divisions within companies to be created and persist that just shouldn’t exist because they will never be in profitable.

you need a lot of those companies/divisions to actually fully fail and send their entire employee group back into the pool to really lower employment inflation.
 
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OU Ariakas

Get it ALL together and put it in a backpack
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This is only somewhat true I think. I think the zirp policies have caused a lot of companies/divisions within companies to be created and persist that just shouldn’t exist because they will never be in profitable.

you need a lot of those companies/divisions to actually fully fail and send their entire employee group back into the pool to really lower employment inflation.

This also starts happening inside of Fortune 500 companies where the goal stops totally being about money and starts to be about public perception and marketing. Competent employees are more at risk because there is a much larger bottom line to hide missing a few if you can pump those ESG numbers.
 

Aldarion

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let my TQQQ/SPXL go for 6.8% profit day before yesterday. Holding non-inversed ETFs for too long makes my skin crawl. Lucky timing.

Its funny cause I sleep like a baby holding SQQQ/SPXS
 

Sanrith Descartes

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So interesting (or not) view. I am not finding a lot of oversold/undervalued companies right now. Everything is adjusting to forward looking earnings so prices aren't actually that out of line with expected earnings for the most part. I think it was actually easier in the early days of Covid to find value than it is right now.
 
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Jysin

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So interesting (or not) view. I am not finding a lot of oversold/undervalued companies right now. Everything is adjusting to forward looking earnings so prices aren't actually that out of line with expected earnings for the most part. I think it was actually easier in the early days of Covid to find value than it is right now.
That is the big question that every analyst and talking head is pouring over right now. "Expected" earnings... Q4 foward guides are going to make or break those expectations. Semis are a bloodbath because AMD cut theirs. You had FDX warning weeks ago as the canary in the coal mine. What is currently considered a "decent value" based on overinflated expectations can trigger the next leg down following lower revisions.

The next few weeks should be very telling, but so far it doesn't seem so rosy.

*Edit* Like clockwork (today): 11:09 [FDX] Internal memo shows FedEx ground division expects to lower volume forecast as customers expecting to ship fewer holiday packages - press - Updated forecasts on volumes will be published around Oct 21st
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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That is the big question that every analyst and talking head is pouring over right now. "Expected" earnings... Q4 foward guides are going to make or break those expectations. Semis are a bloodbath because AMD cut theirs. You had FDX warning weeks ago as the canary in the coal mine. What is currently considered a "decent value" based on overinflated expectations can trigger the next leg down following lower revisions.

The next few weeks should be very telling, but so far it doesn't seem so rosy.

*Edit* Like clockwork (today): 11:09 [FDX] Internal memo shows FedEx ground division expects to lower volume forecast as customers expecting to ship fewer holiday packages - press - Updated forecasts on volumes will be published around Oct 21st
i think the current 52 lows have current expectations priced in. As forward earnings begin to drop the support at those 52 lows will crumble and we will begin setting up new market lows.

The trick for anyone with cash on the sideline is once again to drop it into companies that are going to survive to come out on the other side. The risk of buying the AAPL/MSFT/HD etc companies is one mainly of opportunity cost as you may be locked in at prices that take significant time to recover. The positive aspect of those companies is that they SHOULD recover at some point. Its those negative eps growth stocks where the risk is being magnified to a high multiple because they may not make it out on the other side.
 
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