Mist
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Investing General Discussion
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Mist
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Long on America.
ICE is not going away for large trucks and large SUVs yet, maybe 5-8 more years before you start seeing people saying that, but I am in agreement with Elon in that when it happens, it will happen faster than expected and the resale value of ICE trucks and large SUVs that you buy today is not going to be what you want when you go to trade them in.
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Mist
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It literally stopped bleeding as soon as Elmo stopped tweeting so much. The correlation coefficient between Elon Tweets Per Day (ETPD) and the price movement of TSLA has to be pretty high. That would be a fantastic homework assignment for a stats class.Seems like just yesterday we were discussing TSLA breaching the $100 barrier,Jysin
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Sanrith Descartes
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Actually, it turned up as soon as Tesla cut prices and fucked over all the other EV makers with their shitty margins. Their ability to take market share went to zero.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Made 14% on my INTC buy/writes in about 2 weeks. Little bite-sized wins.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Quoting this from the car thread. We had been discussing TSLA and the price cuts and how after the initial move down the stock has been ripping higher. This reinforces what I had said about their margins compared to competition.
Sanrith Descartes
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swayze22
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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What a weird bottom this bear put in if this is really it. For reference recovering the 200d like this is something the market was never able to do during 08-09 and 00-03 bears until the bottom was in and a new uptrend had begun. It's going to take a few more weeks for the 200d to flatten and turn up and if it happens that is simply not something that occurs during bear markets.
So many, myself included looking for another leg down. It's a tough pill to swallow to let go of "feelings" and trade what's in front of you. The nasdaq is the stubborn one here and it's chart does not look as good as many others. SPY, DIA, IWM, EEM, HYG above their 200d moving averages. Bullish tech indicators continue to build stronger.
If the bulls are right we will look back on our feelings from right now and realize we were wrong and economic down turn and corresponding Earnings will be very muted or non existent.
Some bears will just bitch and moan and not adapt, some bears will change their narrative to one final blow off top before the "big one" . It's all folly just trade the trend in front of you, you aren't picking teams.
I'm nearing accepting that the primary trend has now changed from down to up, not quite there but we are getting closer. In practical terms what that means for me is that more cash is allocated to holding equities vs holding cash and selling puts. Probably 2 weeks out for me from a potential change in investment strategy, get through earnings and see if charts continue to improve.
So many, myself included looking for another leg down. It's a tough pill to swallow to let go of "feelings" and trade what's in front of you. The nasdaq is the stubborn one here and it's chart does not look as good as many others. SPY, DIA, IWM, EEM, HYG above their 200d moving averages. Bullish tech indicators continue to build stronger.
If the bulls are right we will look back on our feelings from right now and realize we were wrong and economic down turn and corresponding Earnings will be very muted or non existent.
Some bears will just bitch and moan and not adapt, some bears will change their narrative to one final blow off top before the "big one" . It's all folly just trade the trend in front of you, you aren't picking teams.
I'm nearing accepting that the primary trend has now changed from down to up, not quite there but we are getting closer. In practical terms what that means for me is that more cash is allocated to holding equities vs holding cash and selling puts. Probably 2 weeks out for me from a potential change in investment strategy, get through earnings and see if charts continue to improve.
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Mist
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Sanrith Descartes
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It seems like the big two pay processors are in full recovery mode. V and MA are less than 5% from a new 52-high. AXP is entrenched in bear mode (-30%) and lets not talk about SQ and PYPL. My hypothesis is a combination of size/scale/market dominance put together with the fact that they dont actually hold any consumer debt (unlike AXP) are big contributors. A good earnings report from both V and MA and they could be off to the races. As more consumers carry debt and are late, V/MA get to wrack up fees while carrying zero risk on the debt default.
I don't normally own multiple big players in a space but I went on a hunch a while back and added MA to my V position and it looks like it was the play. Sometimes you need to go outside your playbook.
I don't normally own multiple big players in a space but I went on a hunch a while back and added MA to my V position and it looks like it was the play. Sometimes you need to go outside your playbook.
Blazin
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Just went and looked at every bear market since 1966 looking for the biggest "fake outs" time that the chart was improving to this extent but the lows not being in.
So here we have a pretty ugly decline and the market has shot up off a low and recaptured the 200d. Would be singing a very similar tune to now, this chart is sending signals that the bottom might be in.
Here is what happened next...
So notice the time above the 200d was short lived and the 200d never flattened and turned up. This is what we are looking for, usually marked by a back test of the 200d that hold this often occurs right around the time it would be curling up.
So here we have a pretty ugly decline and the market has shot up off a low and recaptured the 200d. Would be singing a very similar tune to now, this chart is sending signals that the bottom might be in.
Here is what happened next...
So notice the time above the 200d was short lived and the 200d never flattened and turned up. This is what we are looking for, usually marked by a back test of the 200d that hold this often occurs right around the time it would be curling up.
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Sanrith Descartes
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How convenient that were are in the midst of the big heavy's earnings reports. Want a catalyst for a sustained move in either direction? We got one.
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Blazin
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Thats the TLDR good news of my charts and posts, we are going to get an answer and we are going to get it soon.
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Sanrith Descartes
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TSLA +6% on the day. I don't like shorts in general so I am enjoying the anal raping they are in the midst of receiving right now.