Investing General Discussion

Aldarion

Aldarion

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I dunno, it sounds a lot like comments I've read throughout this thread. That tone of "its so complex, how silly of you to think you could understand it like me".

I presume forum threads were in its training dataset. I wonder if FoH threads were excluded because of the login features. This thing needs some FoH training data, if so!
 
Mist

Mist

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Aldarion said:
I dunno, it sounds a lot like comments I've read throughout this thread. That tone of "its so complex, how silly of you to think you could understand it like me".

I presume forum threads were in its training dataset. I wonder if FoH threads were excluded because of the login features. This thing needs some FoH training data, if so!
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For real, Reddit was the bulk of its training set.
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

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Why are you resorting to AI to decide a Mist issue?

FoH Guideline #179 states:

When in doubt, Mist is wrong.
And depressed.


And a guy.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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INTC momentarily dipped below my $28.50 strike on calls expiring tomorrow. Gonna be exciting.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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1674140791320.png
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Edaw said:
For the economically challenged, what does this mean?
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Legally, until Congress acts, The US cant issue more debt. We have to operate on the cash it currently has.

Edit: it has lots of options. Spending already authorized can be shuffled around to some degree depending on how it was appropriated.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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File this under "Sometimes markets just dont work right".

INTC trading at the strike on calls expiring tomorrow. Basically no time value left to speak of (day and a half). IV is around 40 yet calls still selling for 25 cents.

1674153294558.png
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
File this under "Sometimes markets just dont work right".

INTC trading at the strike on calls expiring tomorrow. Basically no time value left to speak of (day and a half). IV is around 40 yet calls still selling for 25 cents.

View attachment 454096
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Not sure what you think is askew here, seems exactly in line with expectations . Do we need to break out the Black-Scholes textbook lessons? Curious what you think the "right" premium should be.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Not sure what you think is askew here, seems exactly in line with expectations . Do we need to break out the Black-Scholes textbook lessons? Curious what you think the "right" premium should be.
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I think its trading too high. A buyer of the call today is paying 25 cents for a strike of $28.5 with a day and a half to go. it needs to finish at $28.75 by tomorrow to bag a winner. That is a 1% increase over the current. It seems a bit for a low beta stock (0.76)

We shall see tomorrow. I personally want to lose it because I dont want to be holding it into earnings.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I think its trading too high. A buyer of the call today is paying 25 cents for a strike of $28.5 with a day and a half to go. it needs to finish at $28.75 by tomorrow to bag a winner. That is a 1% increase over the current. It seems a bit for a low beta stock (0.76)

We shall see tomorrow. I personally want to lose it because I dont want to be holding it into earnings.
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Time value curves are not linear towards their end. When they are weeks out they move in quite a linear fashion but towards the end they level out right until the last half of the trading day of expiration because the standard deviation for an intra day move still stays rather high. Obviously INTC could easily move up or down 3% quite quickly.

It's okay to believe it should be less, but it certainly is not an odd price for being at the money and a day and a half left, delta is rather high for atm as you near expiration so it's price will move quite a bit with the underlying. Could be 0.13 one min and 0.26 just a half hour later if you are moving up and below the strike.

Remember if it moves into the money you could open buy/write ticket and close it and the underlying by just giving up 0.03 or something, if you don't want to leave it to chance with earnings looming.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Time value curves are not linear towards their end. When they are weeks out they move in quite a linear fashion but towards the end they level out right until the last half of the trading day of expiration because the standard deviation for an intra day move still stays rather high. Obviously INTC could easily move up or down 3% quite quickly.

It's okay to believe it should be less, but it certainly is not an odd price for being at the money and a day and a half left, delta is rather high for atm as you near expiration so it's price will move quite a bit with the underlying. Could be 0.13 one min and 0.26 just a half hour later if you are moving up and below the strike.

Remember if it moves into the money you could open buy/write ticket and close it and the underlying by just giving up 0.03 or something, if you don't want to leave it to chance with earnings looming.
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Fair enough.
Earnings is the 27th which is why I chose an expiry with breathing room. If I dont get exercised I will dump it next week.
 
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