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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel

Gravel

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ShakyJake said:
This was interesting:


Buy a bunch of cheap OTM QQQ calls.
Click to expand...
If he's right, it really is a repeat of the 70's and we're going to get a brief respite before shooting up to even worse inflation.

And in this case, it'd be even stupider because they fudged the numbers to get there, and the "respite" wasn't even real.
 
Mist

Mist

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Gravel said:
If he's right, it really is a repeat of the 70's and we're going to get a brief respite before shooting up to even worse inflation.
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Why? What force is acting on the economy to push inflation higher? M2 is being actively destroyed, something we've never seen before. That's deflationary.

Labor markets are loosening, though not a lot, but certainly everyone who makes 120k+ and sits at a desk all day is feeling some sort of threat.

Things that would have to happen for inflation to shoot back up:
  • A worse energy crisis than we already had - Unlikely.
  • A worse food crisis than we're already in - highly possible, but that would cause stuff a lot worse than inflation, food insecurity causes revolutions, to the point where the inflation part isn't even the first concern.
  • Some other sort of crisis (real or invented) that causes governments to start printing money again.
 
Gravel

Gravel

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The exact same things that got us here in the first place, which the guy talked about briefly. The Fed would see it as an opportunity to do more QE, and our spending problem isn't fixed.

Pump another $5-10 trillion out and yes, we'd see more inflation. This is what drove the 70s inflation, not OPEC.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Gravel said:
The exact same things that got us here in the first place, which the guy talked about briefly. The Fed would see it as an opportunity to do more QE, and our spending problem isn't fixed.

Pump another $5-10 trillion out and yes, we'd see more inflation. This is what drove the 70s inflation, not OPEC.
Click to expand...
Even the commies know we are at a high lvl of debt to GDP, I don't believe there is a desire by the Fed right now to do more pumping,have to remember that was done in a desperate attempt to stir inflation higher.

If the Fed is cutting rates and pumping it's because we are entering a deflationary spiral.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Blazin said:
Even the commies know we are at a high lvl of debt to GDP, I don't believe there is a desire by the Fed right now to do more pumping,have to remember that was done in a desperate attempt to stir inflation higher.

If the Fed is cutting rates and pumping it's because we are entering a deflationary spiral.
Click to expand...
Time to buy crypto because its decentralized and detached from equities...

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