This VIX action is confirming to me that I don’t know shit about the VIX
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Jysin
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Zzen
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Sanrith Descartes
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Furry
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Mist
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Is it really greed or is it the weakening dollar making US equities more attractive to foreign investors?
(And yeah I realize dollars are upticking slightly today.)
Sanrith Descartes
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ShakyJake
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It doesn't matter. We're at the top of the cycle right now. If you're a long term investor who cares. But if you're trading right now, going long might not be a good idea.
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Boy, I just don't know how this is going to go in the next week or so. There wasn't much of a retracement today in light of the earnings reports from the big corps like AAPL, and since yesterday was way ABOVE the upward trendline from the past 14-19 days it means we're still inside of the (current, short) overall upward trend of the S&P and with money starting to shift back into Tech(NASDAQ) in a perceived return to risk-on environment.
With all of that said, this is quite similar to what happened in August last year, and immediately after a nice run up of about 20-24 days the market tanked again to 52wk lows. Inflation isn't really tamed, as the rate the Fed is at now is still below overall inflation rate (especially the un-'corrected' rate) and the economists I read all say that you can't have negative inflation numbers with an overall interest rate lower than the inflation rate in question.
Then there's the slowdown in the housing and auto industries. This has been a bellwether for overall economic health for a long time, and many people I have read say that housing is in an enormous bubble (2008 again, sigh), and auto prices along with it. Looking at the average prices of both of these asset classes compared to the wages needed to afford them, we're surely in a bubble and have been for a few years at least. If both of those bubbles are about to pop simultaneously, that is going to drag down the market with it, right?
Then I come to
Blazin
's excellent analysis of current chart trends. People who fight bright flashing signs like the golden cross might as well rage against the tides, to paraphrase. We're a ways off the S&P 100D cross, but past the 50D. Which is going to be the better sign to read? 50? 100? Neither?
My own feeling is that we have at least a few more days in the uptrend, but it seems really shaky to me and it may be time to put stops into my index holdings. Maybe even buy some SQQQ, but that's iffy...
With all of that said, this is quite similar to what happened in August last year, and immediately after a nice run up of about 20-24 days the market tanked again to 52wk lows. Inflation isn't really tamed, as the rate the Fed is at now is still below overall inflation rate (especially the un-'corrected' rate) and the economists I read all say that you can't have negative inflation numbers with an overall interest rate lower than the inflation rate in question.
Then there's the slowdown in the housing and auto industries. This has been a bellwether for overall economic health for a long time, and many people I have read say that housing is in an enormous bubble (2008 again, sigh), and auto prices along with it. Looking at the average prices of both of these asset classes compared to the wages needed to afford them, we're surely in a bubble and have been for a few years at least. If both of those bubbles are about to pop simultaneously, that is going to drag down the market with it, right?
Then I come to
Blazin
's excellent analysis of current chart trends. People who fight bright flashing signs like the golden cross might as well rage against the tides, to paraphrase. We're a ways off the S&P 100D cross, but past the 50D. Which is going to be the better sign to read? 50? 100? Neither?My own feeling is that we have at least a few more days in the uptrend, but it seems really shaky to me and it may be time to put stops into my index holdings. Maybe even buy some SQQQ, but that's iffy...
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Wingz
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Got several shares of SQQQ at discount the last couple days. Preparing for later.Boy, I just don't know how this is going to go in the next week or so. There wasn't much of a retracement today in light of the earnings reports from the big corps like AAPL, and since yesterday was way ABOVE the upward trendline from the past 14-19 days it means we're still inside of the (current, short) overall upward trend of the S&P and with money starting to shift back into Tech(NASDAQ) in a perceived return to risk-on environment.
With all of that said, this is quite similar to what happened in August last year, and immediately after a nice run up of about 20-24 days the market tanked again to 52wk lows. Inflation isn't really tamed, as the rate the Fed is at now is still below overall inflation rate (especially the un-'corrected' rate) and the economists I read all say that you can't have negative inflation numbers with an overall interest rate lower than the inflation rate in question.
Then there's the slowdown in the housing and auto industries. This has been a bellwether for overall economic health for a long time, and many people I have read say that housing is in an enormous bubble (2008 again, sigh), and auto prices along with it. Looking at the average prices of both of these asset classes compared to the wages needed to afford them, we're surely in a bubble and have been for a few years at least. If both of those bubbles are about to pop simultaneously, that is going to drag down the market with it, right?
Then I come to
My own feeling is that we have at least a few more days in the uptrend, but it seems really shaky to me and it may be time to put stops into my index holdings. Maybe even buy some SQQQ, but that's iffy...
Sanrith Descartes
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Falstaff
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I’m finding it the opposite to be true. Boomers are retiring and we’re taking the opportunity to promote someone into the role and then just get rid of the backfill. Too much boomer bloat at the top because half these fucks wouldn’t retire.
8 years ago when I started my job the boomer retirement wave was imminent and we were the next generation of leaders… that is just starting now and I think it’s slow. People are underestimating just how little people have saved and will be working until they die, although I think not necessarily true in my industry it’s apparent elsewhere.
In my industry it’s rarely the boomers leaving that hurts. Most of the boomers have some good knowledge but their systems skills are so bad I see the same thing you do. They promote an elder millennial or genx that has almost all the knowledge and far better system skills. Problem is like you said often with no backfill and then you are asking a guy to attend all the bullshit management meetings and checkins but also personally do the technical work too.
the people it hurts to lose are usually those experienced millennials and genx who are like 32-late 40s and are often really under payed and incentivized. And ya the young pool of millennials and gen z is awful and their problem solving is shit even when their work ethic is ok
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Mist
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It sounds like Google will unveil its ChatGPT clone February 8
Google wants to use "the power of AI to reimagine how people search."
Mist
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Don't fuck it up. This was the breaking point in my relationship with my mother. When I finally was allowed to get my permit, she had a complete mental breakdown on a totally uneventful 10 mile trip along a nearly empty rural stretch of highway, and then never took me driving again. She made me get my permit 5 more times, only to never take me driving again. It completely shattered my confidence in everything about my life, only to later realize that was entirely intentional on my mother's part. I have never really recovered from that.
Lesson: Don't pass your anxieties onto your kids, they've got enough of their own.
PS: My mom was an absolutely terrible driver. Not so much on the roads, but a true terror in parking lots.