Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,615
107,753
Tmac said:
So is the general idea to ride an index to the top and then diversify by investing in a lagging sector?

Inevitably there's a shift? Is it possible to forecast what's next?

Financials seem risky with the impending commercial real estate FUD, real estate seems to be in a stalemate with sellers sitting bc of rates and buyers not having anything affordable available, consumer defensive should already be baked in bc Ukraine right?, and I have no thoughts about healthcare, ultilities, or energy.
Click to expand...
There is an investing strategy of rotating between sectors. As a sector ascends, you sell it and move the cash to underperforming sectors. Literally selling high and buy low. The challenge is picking the sectors and being right.
 
  • 1Solidarity
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 users
Haus

Haus

<Silver Donator>
11,379
43,083
Mist said:
Why not just name it eyePod?
Click to expand...
Or maybe iEye , and sell it to naval officers and pirates.
ShakyJake said:
Several of the financial YouTubers I watch have all been parroting the same message -- metals and miners will be big over the next decade. I've been buying shares of the gold and silver mining ETFs and related stocks.
Click to expand...
If the world is going to achieve these solar and electric car goals the amount of silver and copper needed, among several other metals (rare earths and normal) is going to be insanely past anything we as a society are geared up to produce quickly enough. So, there's probably some merit in that strategy.
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
Wingz

Wingz

Being Poor Sucks.
12,563
38,807
It's a jungle out there... as dumb money buys..smart money sells..

AI Mania? Why would they be doing this if their 11B Quarter they were waiting for is just around the corner?

www.marketwatch.com

Nvidia board member dumps $48 million more in stock amid monster rally

A longtime board member at Nvidia dumped more than $48 million worth of the chip maker's shares earlier this week, cashing in on the stock's recent surge.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com

Other Stocks up 1000%!

www.cnbctv18.com

Mysterious 1,000% stock gains baffle traders in Indonesia

In the past three years, at least 83 Indonesian companies have swung by 1,000 percent or more from peak to trough, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
www.cnbctv18.com www.cnbctv18.com
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
Mist

Mist

Eeyore Enthusiast
<Gold Donor>
30,539
22,502
Sanrith Descartes said:
There is an investing strategy of rotating between sectors. As a sector ascends, you sell it and move the cash to underperforming sectors. Literally selling high and buy low. The challenge is picking the sectors and being right.
Click to expand...
I did this with sector ETFs during the initial COVID recovery. Bought the ones that were the most oversold and rotated. It was fun, made a lot of money, got a bunch of false confidence that I was good at this :honkler:.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Rod-138

Rod-138

Trakanon Raider
1,149
897
That’s kind of what I aim to do at work. Sadly, even when you’re right about a sector you have the same problems you always do, mostly regarding timing the exits / entry.

Like right now, say you exit your 20% tech to the tune of dropping to 10%. You shift that 10% to energy expecting summer demand to kick up. Your logic was right, but you were early by 2 weeks and if you did Jack shit, you would have made significantly more. You didn’t calculate the pure retard strength of ‘this stock is up big, me buy’ That’s usually how it goes for me anyway.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,615
107,753
Rod-138 said:
That’s kind of what I aim to do at work. Sadly, even when you’re right about a sector you have the same problems you always do, mostly regarding timing the exits / entry.

Like right now, say you exit your 20% tech to the tune of dropping to 10%. You shift that 10% to energy expecting summer demand to kick up. Your logic was right, but you were early by 2 weeks and if you did Jack shit, you would have made significantly more. You didn’t calculate the pure retard strength of ‘this stock is up big, me buy’ That’s usually how it goes for me anyway.
Click to expand...
The trick that keeps me sane is to never focus on the min/max, hitting the exact entry and exit points. You will drive yourself nuts thinking about this. "Damn, I should have held it for 3 more percent". Set targets based on the best info you have and go with them. If your target is +20% and you sell it and it rides up another 5%, dont dwell on it. Always focus on what you made on a trade, not what you didn't make on a trade.

That being said, use it as a learning experience and see if your analysis was off or if the market just reacted irrationally. This game cant be min/maxxed unless you have Paul Pelosi info.
 
  • 4Like
Reactions: 3 users
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,615
107,753
Sold that other half of my AMZN position for a healthy gain. This kind of dovetails on to my previous post. If it keeps running up, shrug, I am happy with the gains I made off the stock this year. I will look for a re-entry at a pullback.

This is the lifetime AMZN chart. Look at the covid years when it went insane and exclude them. I see this running out of steam in the near term.

1687269425173.png
 
  • 4Tendies
Reactions: 3 users
Jysin

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,290
4,056
More ugly macro news:

More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars​

  • Loans hit 125% of vehicle value in first quarter: TransUnion
  • The trend may foreshadow higher delinquencies, study finds

www.bloomberg.com

More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars

More Americans are entering into auto loans that exceed the worth of their cars after vehicle values declined in the wake of dramatic increases during the pandemic, a report has found.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
  • 3WTF
  • 2Like
  • 1Worf
Reactions: 6 users
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,615
107,753
Jysin said:
More ugly macro news:

More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars​

  • Loans hit 125% of vehicle value in first quarter: TransUnion
  • The trend may foreshadow higher delinquencies, study finds

www.bloomberg.com

More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars

More Americans are entering into auto loans that exceed the worth of their cars after vehicle values declined in the wake of dramatic increases during the pandemic, a report has found.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
Click to expand...
People bought/took leases during the covid supply chain fuckery and paid insane prices and are now upside down on that vehicle and rolling the difference into their trade.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
37,002
118,599
I'm always amazed at how over leveraged people are on cars. And most of all like you said, where they trade in their car for a fraction of its value to go in for an even more unaffordable car.

Even at our highest incomes, I can't imagine having a $500+ monthly car loan. Talk about pissing money away.
 
  • 4Like
  • 2Solidarity
Reactions: 5 users
Edaw

Edaw

Parody
<Gold Donor>
12,414
80,733
Jysin said:
More ugly macro news:

More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars​

  • Loans hit 125% of vehicle value in first quarter: TransUnion
  • The trend may foreshadow higher delinquencies, study finds

www.bloomberg.com

More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars

More Americans are entering into auto loans that exceed the worth of their cars after vehicle values declined in the wake of dramatic increases during the pandemic, a report has found.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
Click to expand...
Was pay-walled but wanted to read it :https://archive.ph/UAQzU

Was no mention of it in the article, but I wonder how much of this has to do with term lengths increasing. Can't you get something ridiculous like a 10 year loan now?
 
Jysin

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,290
4,056
Yea, there's been grumblings of the sub-prime auto loans pre-dating covid. Shit is just a lot worse now. There's a myriad of factors at play.
 
  • 4Like
Reactions: 3 users
Jysin

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,290
4,056
It had news. I talked about it before. News today was Rivian adopting the Tesla charge standard and making an agreement to use their Supercharger network. This is on the back of both Ford and GM capitulating as well. You've basically turned Tesla into a service provider now for EV charging. Rivian is nothing in the scheme of things, but its just another name in what is likely to be an entire industry-wide adoption of Tesla charge standard and leasing their charge network.

It's a bullish tail-wind for sure, hence the big price run recently.

Still ripping after-hours here.
 
Last edited:
  • 1Like
  • 1Solidarity
Reactions: 1 users
Mist

Mist

Eeyore Enthusiast
<Gold Donor>
30,539
22,502
Prediction: The restarting of student loan repayments in October is going to cause a very weak performance for holiday retail that is going to send signals that drive the economy into a quick, steep recession, mostly out of panic, by Q1 2024.
 
  • 1Launch Fail
Reactions: 1 user
C

Creslin

Trakanon Raider
2,380
1,080
Mist said:
Prediction: The restarting of student loan repayments in October is going to cause a very weak performance for holiday retail that is going to send signals that drive the economy into a quick, steep recession, mostly out of panic, by Q1 2024.
Click to expand...
We are in a weird pattern right now where the low end of the economy is weakening pretty fast. Anecdotal stuff I hear out of contacts at some large low price retailers like TJX and traffic info from outlet centers is that its all down close to double digits from LY. Younger, poorer consumer is clearly hurting now vs a year ago. But everything I hear and see on the full price higher end side is alot stronger still, spending with the affluent crowd remains high.

Student loans aren't gonna help cause it will hit the younger side of that affluent crowd but I think it's unclear on if the lower end side will rebaseline and recover or if the fall offs will start to cause broad layoffs and weakness across all consumers. I honestly think it could go either way.
 
Mist

Mist

Eeyore Enthusiast
<Gold Donor>
30,539
22,502
Creslin said:
We are in a weird pattern right now where the low end of the economy is weakening pretty fast. Anecdotal stuff I hear out of contacts at some large low price retailers like TJX and traffic info from outlet centers is that its all down close to double digits from LY. Younger, poorer consumer is clearly hurting now vs a year ago. But everything I hear and see on the full price higher end side is alot stronger still, spending with the affluent crowd remains high.

Student loans aren't gonna help cause it will hit the younger side of that affluent crowd but I think it's unclear on if the lower end side will rebaseline and recover or if the fall offs will start to cause broad layoffs and weakness across all consumers. I honestly think it could go either way.
Click to expand...
It really doesn't matter what's actually happening. It matters how the market and the media feel about what's happening. And if the holiday season shows even remotely bad signals, they will hype it up until everything crashes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.