Investing General Discussion

TheBeagle

TheBeagle

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Furry said:
My optimistic sell executed so back to cash I guess. I'm playing the markets like Beagle this last month.
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If DAL gets to 28 and XOM gets to 48.50 this week I'll cash out my winnings and wait for another dip.

Just going with my gut during the height of the pandemic I looked up some companies that are into robotics and automation and bought into ABB for something long term. +15% so far.

Caught a tip in an article somewhere about VNOM a month ago that they would beat their Q1 earnings. +20.6% so far

RVs and campers are going to be big for vacations this year. No one wants to stick their family in a motel. Set a limit buy for CWH at $7.50 and missed it by $0.30. a month later its $23.11. That one really stings.

I also bought a bunch of HTZ when it dipped down to $3. Yikes.

But overall dabbling in some trading has been fun and very inreresting!
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Hey Blazin Blazin I got a question. VTIQ call options. Jan '21 30 strike. I'm in the money and up 150%. I'm thinking about selling, banking my initial investment and then using the profit to roll it up to 50 strike same expiry. That way I am playing strictly with the profit. Thoughts?
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If your goal is to use house money to see if you can let it ride to a big win I think I'd play it a little differently. Do you have multiple contracts? If so I'd say just sell what you need to cover your initial investment and just hold the call you have. With a ~$58/share break even on those 50 strikes you would miss out really on a another $20/share run getting to where your return would really start to move again. Your existing option already being in the money is in a much better position to capture that move. Maybe sell the option you hold and buy a small equity position with the house money.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
If your goal is to use house money to see if you can let it ride to a big win I think I'd play it a little differently. Do you have multiple contracts? If so I'd say just sell what you need to cover your initial investment and just hold the call you have. With a ~$58/share break even on those 50 strikes you would miss out really on a another $20/share run getting to where your return would really start to move again. Your existing option already being in the money is in a much better position to capture that move. Maybe sell the option you hold and buy a small equity position with the house money.
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Thanks. The meeting to approve the merge is tomorrow so I expect more volatility in the morning.
 
TJT

TJT

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Hmmm. HTZ at $0.89... Yeah I'll bite on some of that.

TheBeagle TheBeagle Nice thought on RV sale growth vs hotel motel vacations. I'll need to research some of that.
 
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Gurgeh

Gurgeh

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Locnar said:
Read a article today that China is in a V shaped recovery. I'm liking the gainz today.
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France is definitely on a V, for now, businesses that have reopened are operating at, or above, 100%, but it's to be expected, as there is a lot of business that have been put on hold and that are happening now, the question is, is there enough business that will happen to kickstart back the economy at 100%, or will it not last long ?
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gurgeh said:
France is definitely on a V, for now, businesses that have reopened are operating at, or above, 100%, but it's to be expected, as there is a lot of business that have been put on hold and that are happening now, the question is, is there enough business that will happen to kickstart back the economy at 100%, or will it not last long ?
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I fully expect some serious dips in the months ahead. There are going to be days of bad news. Once the Fed starts slowing the money printing super-liquidity will go away. My strategy has been and what I have recommended is look for the most bulletproof bluechips when they go on sale and bank them for the long term. Yesterday with PFE is an example. Increased levels of volatility are here to stay for quite possibly the end of the year.
 
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Gurgeh

Gurgeh

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I fully expect some serious dips in the months ahead. There are going to be days of bad news. Once the Fed starts slowing the money printing super-liquidity will go away. My strategy has been and what I have recommended is look for the most bulletproof bluechips when they go on sale and bank them for the long term. Yesterday with PFE is an example. Increased levels of volatility are here to stay for quite possibly the end of the year.
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It's definitely a possibility, but it's going to depend on individual behaviors, this is a crisis that can significantly change behaviors, and the result can be unpredictible. I'm seeing people being more serious with their, realizing it's not a given, that their job is in jeopardy, I'm also seeing people being extra cautious to buy french product, or at least not buy chinese, i've seen people moving from amazon to shops in town. Maybe it's going to just go poof and september is going to be quite dark, or maybe if just 10% of the population change their approach, the V might go on.

That's individual behaviors, now there are government behaviors for my market, France it also depends on Germany going forward "european protectionnism" which would massively boost industrial stocks, or if it was just words. If Germany is serious about relocating industry in Europe, France will follow as there is much pressure at home, and probably that the stockmarket is still quite undervalued at the current value; and we could be end of 2019 + 20% at the beginning of 2022.

It's difficult to put probabilities on this, we could as well be at -30% from March 2020 in early 2022 as well, if rioting keep happening, if China gets his way with everyone, if CV19 pops up massively in autumn; each of these risks are fairly low, but still, together that's a lot of uncertainty.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gurgeh said:
It's definitely a possibility, but it's going to depend on individual behaviors, this is a crisis that can significantly change behaviors, and the result can be unpredictible. I'm seeing people being more serious with their, realizing it's not a given, that their job is in jeopardy, I'm also seeing people being extra cautious to buy french product, or at least not buy chinese, i've seen people moving from amazon to shops in town. Maybe it's going to just go poof and september is going to be quite dark, or maybe if just 10% of the population change their approach, the V might go on.

That's individual behaviors, now there are government behaviors for my market, France it also depends on Germany going forward "european protectionnism" which would massively boost industrial stocks, or if it was just words. If Germany is serious about relocating industry in Europe, France will follow as there is much pressure at home, and probably that the stockmarket is still quite undervalued at the current value; and we could be end of 2019 + 20% at the beginning of 2022.

It's difficult to put probabilities on this, we could as well be at -30% from March 2020 in early 2022 as well, if rioting keep happening, if China gets his way with everyone, if CV19 pops up massively in autumn; each of these risks are fairly low, but still, together that's a lot of uncertainty.
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In times of uncertainty I try to put together as many knowns as I can to make my best evaluation. Its why I went with blue chip balance sheets. I can't know future sales, but I can know things like cash on hand, burn rates, debt on the balance sheet, free cash flow etc. I could still lose bigly, but I think this strategy lowers my percentages of losing in the long term the most.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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VTIQ update. Stock is up 7% pre-market. The vote to approve the reverse merger with Nikola is at 11am EST. I can't imagine it not passing. Nikola becomes a wholly owned subsidiary of VTIQ and the combined company and VTIQ ticker will change to NKLA.

I am not advising anyone to get in at this price ($36), it could drop like a rock after the vote or it could sky rocket. I actually like the concept of the company and am leaning toward keeping my shares for the long haul.

I love the look of this truck.

 
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Furry

Furry

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I fully expect some serious dips in the months ahead. There are going to be days of bad news. Once the Fed starts slowing the money printing super-liquidity will go away. My strategy has been and what I have recommended is look for the most bulletproof bluechips when they go on sale and bank them for the long term. Yesterday with PFE is an example. Increased levels of volatility are here to stay for quite possibly the end of the year.
Click to expand...

Value of the dollar has been getting trashed. Looks like people are taking that fed money and running to other countries. Not a good sign for america.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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I sold my VTIQ options on the spike after the vote. I still like the company long term but I couldnt justify leaving 225% profit on the table. I expect a dip at some point and will look to take a stock position at some point.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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If Zuckerberg keeps holding line against his fellow tech overlords and refusing to delete political shit I might have to buy some FB stock.
 
Khane

Khane

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I sold my VTIQ options on the spike after the vote. I still like the company long term but I couldnt justify leaving 225% profit on the table. I expect a dip at some point and will look to take a stock position at some point.
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Did the vote pass? I can't find news of it anywhere
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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The Robinhood trader crowd who apparently thought VTIQ was going to go parabolic after the vote to merge was approved apparently never heard the term "buy the rumor, sell the news". The crying on Twitter at $VTIQ is delicious. "Why are you guys selling? I bought in at $37 right before the vote. Guys?"
 
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Khane

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So which glass companies are we investing in? Corning? I hear windows are about to be in high demand.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Two IPOs hitting the market this morning. WMG and ZI. Im not a fan of either personally (both show decelerating sales and net income) from both a financial perspective and the fact I don't like either space they are in. That being said, there can be money to be made on IPO quick flips.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Locnar said:
jezz shit is crazy today, I keep refreshing my yolo account. New highs moving on up.
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I see a rotation going on (or continuing). With Coronachan off the front pages and employment numbers not looking as bad, healthcare is rotating out and the laggards like industrials and financials are getting the love.

This is why a diverse portfolio is a fundamental key to happiness.

DAL +7%
CAT +3%
RTX +4.75%
GD +3.6%
LMT +2.25%
JPM +5.75%

more than makes up for the hit healthcare/pharma/bio are taking today.
 
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