Investing General Discussion

Rangoth

Rangoth

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IWM has actually been on a fairly solid 10D "winning" streak and its been a nice crawl up which I much prefer over the TSLA style jumps. I decided to play calls on it today for that reason. In and out trade, less than 5k bet, got 6% and bailed

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Blazin

Blazin

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IWM run up is a bet on deregulation as next agenda item. The speed the market decided tariffs aren't and won't be a thing is something else. It's the end of days to nothingburger in a blink of an eye.
 
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Lambourne

Lambourne

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Less than 2% from filling the gap. Tariffs still in place (more or less) and nothing else has really changed since the plunge. What happens when we make that new high? I personally have no fucking idea,


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What's changed is that the dollar has lost substantial value YTD, which is why this Euro-denominated ETF is still 12% off the February high. If you're in the US you might be back at the same point nominally but much of the recovery may have been from inflation. Fed still has some of the highest rates which I think signals that inflation isn't under control.


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A weaker dollar is going to drive up costs for importers even without a tariff in place so those effects are going to show up at some point. I think the Trump/Musk spat has made it obvious that the deficit isn't going to be brought under control in a major way so I wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar devaluate further. EUR/USD is around 1.13 now, it ballooned to over 1.50 during the GFC.

Interest rate graph from here:

 
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Foler

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Lambourne said:
View attachment 589328

What's changed is that the dollar has lost substantial value YTD, which is why this Euro-denominated ETF is still 12% off the February high. If you're in the US you might be back at the same point nominally but much of the recovery may have been from inflation. Fed still has some of the highest rates which I think signals that inflation isn't under control.


View attachment 589330

A weaker dollar is going to drive up costs for importers even without a tariff in place so those effects are going to show up at some point. I think the Trump/Musk spat has made it obvious that the deficit isn't going to be brought under control in a major way so I wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar devaluate further. EUR/USD is around 1.13 now, it ballooned to over 1.50 during the GFC.

Interest rate graph from here:

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Are you saying buy euro stocks?
 
Lambourne

Lambourne

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Foler said:
Are you saying buy euro stocks?
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All fiat currencies lose value, some just lose value quicker than others. My take is that the dollar is losing value more quickly than the Euro currently.

Dollar lost 10% value since February so if you (as an American) had bought a Euro stock then it would gone up 10% in dollar denominated value even if the stock price in Euros didn't change at all. European stocks have done better than the S&P this year, probably for that reason. Diversifying worldwide can offset currency risks (including those in your home currency)


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Foler

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Lambourne said:
All fiat currencies lose value, some just lose value quicker than others. My take is that the dollar is losing value more quickly than the Euro currently.

Dollar lost 10% value since February so if you (as an American) had bought a Euro stock then it would gone up 10% in dollar denominated value even if the stock price in Euros didn't change at all. European stocks have done better than the S&P this year, probably for that reason. Diversifying worldwide can offset currency risks (including those in your home currency)


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Interesting. So these ETFs are basically buying the same sp500 index but in euro denominations?
 
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