Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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Other than something like Enron or Lehman Bros, has there ever been a time with a company with capitalization in hundreds of billions just straight up cratered due to panic selling?

At this point, TSLA seems like a money printer. Barring someone dumping a gajillion shares and then everyone getting spooked and following, its hard to see how you can lose money here. Less than half of it is held by institutions.

If it declines, seems like it would decline slowly over weeks and you'd have plenty of time to think about it and bail out if you wanted to.
You aren't thinking about the downside correctly. You are asking if the stock will crater. What you should be doing is asking about reversion to the mean. Look at the chart. TSLA is up 30% in 7 days due to the announcement of the stock split. Nothing fundamental changes. Shares multiply by 5 and stock price divides by 5. This run-up isnt based on anything but really ignorance of how the market works. 50 years ago we didnt have fractional investing and no fee investing and the removal of odd-lot penalties. Back then a split meant you might be able to afford to buy a stock that was too expensive to own. Not today. The real question you should ask is should I be paying a 30% premium to buy a stock because it will be splitting. If so, what is the chance it will revert to the mean once the hysteria fades. Statistically, the answer is probably.

1598011945775.png
 
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LachiusTZ

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In 2020 religious zealotry is the norm.

If X% just refuse to ever sell the stock, that will effectively anchor the stock.

I thought it might fall back to sub 1000... But fuck, FOMO is making it hard to dump it again
 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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With TSLA's market cap, once it goes into the S&P 500 it is going to have a real impact on the index. If it ever does fall back to earth the drag it will create will be noticeable. Based on fundamentals only, I can see this stock falling 50% tomorrow and still think it extremely overvalued. I like Musk, I will buy some SpaceX when it goes public, but there is literally no chance I could ever justify paying $1,000 or even $500 a share for this company. Props to everyone who has made a killing on it though.
 
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LachiusTZ

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With TSLA's market cap, once it goes into the S&P 500 it is going to have a real impact on the index. If it ever does fall back to earth the drag it will create will be noticeable. Based on fundamentals only, I can see this stock falling 50% tomorrow and still think it extremely overvalued. I like Musk, I will buy some SpaceX when it goes public, but there is literally no chance I could ever justify paying $1,000 or even $500 a share for this company. Props to everyone who has made a killing on it though.

Yeah I think it's time to put a trailing stop on it.
 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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Yeah I think it's time to put a trailing stop on it.
I'll be 100% honest. If my AAPL wasn't a buy and hold staple of my portfolio I would sell it and take advantage of the run up. I don't know what you are like right now in TSLA but do the calculation. Also, something important. Check the "as-off" date on the TSLA split. The split only goes to owner's of record as of <x> date (usually the week before the actual split happens. I bet smart people sell their stock that date and it causes a drop. Just like ex-div dates. People who dont understand this are going to keep buying after the "as-of" date thinking they get the 5:1. For example, AAPL splits on 8/31 with owner's of record as of 8/24 (Monday). This concept is really critical and I expect there to be a lot of the Robinhood crowd who get boned by this.
 

LachiusTZ

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I'll be 100% honest. If my AAPL wasn't a buy and hold staple of my portfolio I would sell it and take advantage of the run up. I don't know what you are like right now in TSLA but do the calculation. Also, something important. Check the "as-off" date on the TSLA split. The split only goes to owner's of record as of <x> date (usually the week before the actual split happens. I bet smart people sell their stock that date and it causes a drop. Just like ex-div dates. People who dont understand this are going to keep buying after the "as-of" date thinking they get the 5:1. For example, AAPL splits on 8/31 with owner's of record as of 8/24 (Monday). This concept is really critical and I expect there to be a lot of the Robinhood crowd who get boned by this.

Why sell on the as of date?
 

Loser Araysar

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You aren't thinking about the downside correctly. You are asking if the stock will crater. What you should be doing is asking about reversion to the mean. Look at the chart. TSLA is up 30% in 7 days due to the announcement of the stock split. Nothing fundamental changes. Shares multiply by 5 and stock price divides by 5. This run-up isnt based on anything but really ignorance of how the market works. 50 years ago we didnt have fractional investing and no fee investing and the removal of odd-lot penalties. Back then a split meant you might be able to afford to buy a stock that was too expensive to own. Not today. The real question you should ask is should I be paying a 30% premium to buy a stock because it will be splitting. If so, what is the chance it will revert to the mean once the hysteria fades. Statistically, the answer is probably.

View attachment 295229

Hysteria was supposed to pass in 7 days for 3-4 months now.

The price is completely irrational and so is this stock. I dont care about that. The only thing I care about is being left holding the bag on something that grossly overvalued.

I think once the split happens, the speculators will drive the price up again.

Its already up 3% this morning
 
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Mist

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I made pretty good money on my mutual fund selections so far, up about 11% overall in less than 60 days, but I don't see the market going up any further until after the election is over, and likely going down. Should I sell them? They're all Fidelity funds so I think I can sell them after 30 days without penalty but I'm not 100% sure. These are all in non-taxable accounts.
 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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Why sell on the as of date?
I had it wrong somewhat. Sorry splits dont happen a whole lot. Here is the exact wording from the AAPL site:


How does a 4-for-1 stock split actually work?
A 4-for-1 split means that three additional shares of stock are issued for each share in existence on the Record Date of August 24, 2020.
Here’s an example: Let’s assume that as of the Record Date (August 24, 2020) an investor owns 100 shares of Apple common stock and that the market price of Apple stock is $400 per share, so that the investment in Apple is worth $40,000. Let’s also assume that Apple’s stock price doesn’t move up or down between the Record Date and the time the split actually takes place. Immediately after the split, the investor would own 400 shares of Apple stock, but the market price would be $100 per share instead of $400 per share. The investor’s total investment value in Apple would remain the same at $40,000 until the stock price moves up or down.

What happens if I buy or sell shares on or after the Record Date and before the Ex Date?
If you sell shares on or after the Record Date (August 24, 2020) but before the Ex Date (August 31, 2020) you will be selling them at the pre-split price. At the time of the sale, you will surrender your pre-split shares and will no longer be entitled to the split shares. Following the split, the new owner of the shares will be entitled to the additional shares resulting from the stock split.
If you buy shares on or after the Record Date but before the Ex Date, you will purchase the shares at the pre-split price and will receive (or your brokerage account will be credited with) the shares purchased. Following the split, you will receive (or your brokerage account will be credited with) the additional shares resulting from the stock split.

Are there any U.S. federal income tax consequences as a result of the stock split?
There will be no taxable income as a result of the stock split for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The tax basis of each share owned after the stock split will be 1/4th the amount it was before the split. For example, if you owned 100 shares before the split with a tax basis of $40 per share, after the split you would own 400 shares of stock with a tax basis of $10 per share. Foreign investors should consult their local tax advisors. Although this tax information is provided for your assistance, we are not providing personal tax advice. You should consult your personal tax advisor regarding the tax consequences of any transaction you undertake with these shares.

How will I receive the split shares?
If you hold shares in a brokerage account, the additional shares to reflect the split will be deposited into your account in the days following the Split Date (August 28, 2020). Contact your broker if you have any questions regarding timing. If you have a share certificate or hold your shares directly with Apple’s transfer agent, Computershare Trust Company, N.A., the post-split shares will be deposited in a book-entry position and Computershare will mail you a statement indicating the number of shares that you own following the split. We will not be issuing new share certificates. If you have a physical stock certificate, there is no need to return it. You will be credited the split number of shares in a book-entry position.

 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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Hysteria was supposed to pass in 7 days for 3-4 months now.

The price is completely irrational and so is this stock. I dont care about that. The only thing I care about is being left holding the bag on something that grossly overvalued.

I think once the split happens, the speculators will drive the price up again.

Its already up 3% this morning
Ok. You may be 100% correct. TSLA doesnt act like most stocks. It is one reason I dont invest in it. If you think the stock is worth 2k a share then grab some. Baring a black swan event, do I think it will insta-crater at some time in the future? No. So to your original question I think that should not be a concern for you.
 

LachiusTZ

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Imo it's worth like 700-1100 a share.

But if more people are willing to pay 2000+ than are willing to sell...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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I bought into a new SPAC this morning. It went public yesterday at $10. Sized at 1.4 billion in market cap. BFTU (or BFT/U or BFT.U depending on your trading platform) Foley Trasimene Acquisition Corp. II

Its focus in Fintech or Business Service. I got in at $10 a unit and expect it to do pretty much nothing for a few months or so. I like the Fintech space and since I am in at the floor price its about as close to cash as cash except it might go up a few pennies while I wait for a partner to be found.
 

Loser Araysar

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Ok. You may be 100% correct. TSLA doesnt act like most stocks. It is one reason I dont invest in it. If you think the stock is worth 2k a share then grab some. Baring a black swan event, do I think it will insta-crater at some time in the future? No. So to your original question I think that should not be a concern for you.

I should also mention that I'm not looking for a long term hold. I just want to ride as far up as it will go and then sell to make some quick money, be that in 10 days or 10 weeks.

Im just gonna put a damn trailing stop on it just in case
 

Loser Araysar

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I bought into a new SPAC this morning. It went public yesterday at $10. Sized at 1.4 billion in market cap. BFTU (or BFT/U or BFT.U depending on your trading platform) Foley Trasimene Acquisition Corp. II

Its focus in Fintech or Business Service. I got in at $10 a unit and expect it to do pretty much nothing for a few months or so. I like the Fintech space and since I am in at the floor price its about as close to cash as cash except it might go up a few pennies while I wait for a partner to be found.

Going to have to look into that. I work in FIntech these days.

Thanks for the heads up
 

Furry

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Imo it's worth like 700-1100 a share.

In a sane world tsla is worth 100 based on optimism for its potential to grow. That other 1900 is fanboys with daddy's money. If you can't tell from the world lately, there's a lot of retarded kids with dad's money, so don't think the stock is anywhere near done yet.
 

Loser Araysar

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In a sane world tsla is worth 100 based on optimism for its potential to grow. That other 1900 is fanboys with daddy's money. If you can't tell from the world lately, there's a lot of retarded kids with dad's money, so don't think the stock is anywhere near done yet.

Thats exactly what Im thinking
 

Loser Araysar

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I dont know how much you have followed/read about SPACs here or elsewhere but there is some info here and of course in many of the usual places.

Only what youve been posting. Ive looked them up on TDA but they showed up without price so I wasnt sure where to go from there

Was the price not populated into the platform? How much can/should I put in? Am I doing this right?

I get the concept, but I'm still fuzzy on the actual trading mechanics of how this is supposed to work
 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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In a sane world tsla is worth 100 based on optimism for its potential to grow. That other 1900 is fanboys with daddy's money. If you can't tell from the world lately, there's a lot of retarded kids with dad's money, so don't think the stock is anywhere near done yet.
I think its worth more than 100$ a share. On pure fundamentals? No. But one of the factors I try to analyze is upper level management. I like Musk. He is the odd mix of engineer, entrepreneur and showman. He embraces the digital space on places like Twitter and uses that to benefit his companies. I didnt buy in when it was in the 200s because I was only looking at fundamentals (where it still isnt strong). I would never make it a core holding. I do consider it a speculative holding like a SPAC and in hindsight I missed the boat on that. Had my thought processes 6 months ago been what they are today I would have bought it for the momentum play, not for the fundamentals. Shrug, I screwed the pooch on it.
 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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Only what youve been posting. Ive looked them up on TDA but they showed up without price so I wasnt sure where to go from there

Was the price not populated into the platform? How much can/should I put in? Am I doing this right?

I get the concept, but I'm still fuzzy on the actual trading mechanics of how this is supposed to work
Start here. You want to understand the basics of what SPACS are and how they function first.



If you like the Fintech space look at NFIN. it already has a signed agreement to bring Triterras Fintech public later this year.

It just went public yesterday. depending on your trading platform it might list the symbol differently. Try searching for the name. Also some platforms dont like listing SPACS.