Investing General Discussion

Blazin

Blazin

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LachiusTZ said:
Why would it bounce before full blown panic or clearing the Corona virus?

The public is still mostly unaware this is about to be a thing. So the real panic hang happened yet.

And we haven't cleared it...
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The market normally front runs things. So it crashes prior to bad events and often rallies right after fear peaks. Recessions are great times to buy stocks as they begin anticipating recovery. It's right before recessions that it's painful. If you wait until an all clear signal you'll find the market will have already ran a good ways. Always forward looking.
 
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Gurgeh

Gurgeh

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LachiusTZ said:
Why would it bounce before full blown panic or clearing the Corona virus?

The public is still mostly unaware this is about to be a thing. So the real panic hang happened yet.

And we haven't cleared it...
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Public is very well aware, pharmacies / Amazon / etc.. have been out of masks for a while now. Everywhere.
 
LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Lol, you fucking assholes. I understand the buy on a down swing etc. I meant like the following.

Sanrith Descartes said:
Though I dont think it was directed at me but I will add in, I went long on a small position of JPM at the 200 DMA, long another small postion on DIS when it busted the bear line, ditto UNH after it broke the 200 DMA, added on to a QQQ long I started yesterday and finally started a small long position on IVV at the 200 DMA. Finally added to a small long on M at about 11% dividend yield. I expect to flip the M at some point and will take the div while I wait. Everything else above is a buy and hold.

Between yesterday and today I put about 25% of my cash to work.
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Some of that I get, like the general idea. But there is about a page with similar posts that I skimmed by and just couldn't really digest in a meaningful way

Gurgeh said:
Public is very well aware, pharmacies / Amazon / etc.. have been out of masks for a while now. Everywhere.
Click to expand...

That's a single item.

The real panic is when stores have no food.

Edit:. Spoke to half a dozen people yesterday at Sam's. None of them were concerned. At all.

The run on grocery stores hasn't even started yet
 
Blazin

Blazin

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The amount of activity this quiet thread is getting from people who normally never post here is the strongest signal you need that it's a better time to be buying than selling. This will probably be my last post in this thread for awhile because I don't want to do anything that would contribute to people being fearful and making serious mistakes with their retirement money. My suggestion is to most is whatever you do don't make decisions out of fear. You should make a plan during periods of calm and you have the willpower to stick to it. You don't say , "yeah but I didnt know about the WUFLU!" Violent market corrections are always going to have a reason that seams pressing, that's why they are happening. Humans are god awful at making long term decisions in moments of panic, so don't do it.
 
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TJT

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LachiusTZ said:
Lol, you fucking assholes. I understand the buy on a down swing etc. I meant like the following.
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Going long is just buying on the down swing and waiting it out. I don't do options personally. Maybe I'll dabble in it eventually but I have no need to. You probably don't either unless you are very interested in researching heavily. He is talking about the price of those stocks reaching the predicted/estimated bear territory indicating a downtrend in the market itself. Thus making the value buy worthwhile.

DMA is the moving average. He is talking about the 200 day moving average value. One of the datapoints to indicate a downswing in the market.
 
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TJT

TJT

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Although I keep hearing from various people about their fears/opportunities of the housing market tanking over this... I just don't really see that happening though.

Am I missing something and being retarded?
 
Khane

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Tough to have enough purchasing power in an already inflated housing market if all your market investments just tanked, your company lost it's shirt and has to lay people off, etc.
 
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LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Yeah...

Prolly going to shit all over my hopes of cashing out my rental property in April
 
Tarrant

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On the bright side of all this, a few weeks ago I bought a a ton of shares in Novavax when it was rumored they’d be working in a corona vaccine.
I ended up getting it at about $7.40 and currently it’s pushing $15 with most those gains in the last 48 hours.
 
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Jysin

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Timing the markets is absolutely a fool's game.. under normal circumstances. This massive supply shock that's incoming is unprecedented, however. The trader that is even slightly clued into the macro picture of the last few weeks could have seen this coming. I, for one, put my money where my mouth is.

Moved everything to bonds on Feb 11th when I started digesting the bigger China export picture.

PHOTO-2020-02-21-16-56-06.jpg



This isn't about the virus itself. This is about China being the #1 exporter of the world, and the USA being the most reliant importer of the world of Chinese intermediate products. We still heavily rely on Chinese components, even to manufacture "Made in the USA" final products. Hell, I have very savvy banker friends here in London that seem to think Fed cash injections will be the salvation. Perhaps to short term stock portfolios, but Fed cash injections will not magic up products from a completely broken supply chain. This is going to take some time to correct.
 
Pops

Pops

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Jysin said:
Timing the markets is absolutely a fool's game.. under normal circumstances. This massive supply shock that's incoming is unprecedented, however. The trader that is even slightly clued into the macro picture of the last few weeks could have seen this coming. I, for one, put my money where my mouth is.

Moved everything to bonds on Feb 11th when I started digesting the bigger China export picture.

View attachment 251539


This isn't about the virus itself. This is about China being the #1 exporter of the world, and the USA being the most reliant importer of the world of Chinese intermediate products. We still heavily rely on Chinese components, even to manufacture "Made in the USA" final products. Hell, I have very savvy banker friends here in London that seem to think Fed cash injections will be the salvation. Perhaps to short term stock portfolios, but Fed cash injections will not magic up products from a completely broken supply chain. This is going to take some time to correct.
Click to expand...

fut_chart.png


Good call, but 2% is just....
 
ronne

ronne

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Puts are fucking exploding lol. 1000% returns from contract buys less than 24 hours old.

We're all gonna die at this rate.
 
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Jysin

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It's a retirement account, so limited on investment choices. But my account has actually been in the green since the selloff, vs the big red drop leaving it in equities.
 
fris

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I think the selloff degree isnt justified, but I expect the fear to continue.

Look back at lcd, ram and hdd shortages and how it impacted tech stocks. This time, its everything. Wedding dresses aren't getting made cause the silk isnt coming over now.
 
ronne

ronne

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At this point it's just boomers liquidating their holdings, and I fully expect it to continue.

70 year old fatties won't live long enough to recover from this so they are eating the loss now to exit so they can survive another 10 years.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Furry said:
Of course, but it will probably go down more before said recovery. I was predicting around 20% originally. We're at what, 11-12% so far? I think I may have been a bit optimistic with that estimate as well.

Though like I said, more risk this week than last. It's a bigger play for less money. The best play was taking your money out in January when I recommended in this thread.

And I wont hate on keeping it in at this point. 10+ year investors don't need to consider ups and downs.
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Well shit, if Furry said it'd drop 20%, then it must drop 20%.

You're just some asshole on the internet. If you actually knew what was going to happen, you'd be a fucking billionaire.

You've been doing this shit in the coronavirus thread too, acting like you know everything. Shut the fuck up, dude.
 
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LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Didn't sell early, so I'm riding this bitch into the ground. Feel pretty stupid for not selling off my play money, down 25% in five days.

But damn it hurts.

At least I got my tsp out before the crash.
 
Furry

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For those who listened to my first advice and cashed$$ out in january and are riding like kings through this market... It's important to listen to my second advice. There's a time coming up where the run will move from stocks to bonds. It's absolutely pivotal that you buy back into stocks even if they still look like they're getting crushed at that point.
 
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