Investing General Discussion

Locnar said:

The deep declines on various airlines are tempting me. Tempting me sorely.

Click to expand...

The key is balance sheets. Check their debt to ebitda and then factor in what it will look like after 3 months of flight cancellations
Not all airlines are created equal. In my opinion Delta has one of the stronger balance sheets.

Things to watch with cruise lines (and airlines). The revenue they are missing is going to a hole never to be seen again. If everything magically returns to normal in 3 months and every ship is fully booked, those people dont "spend double" so they cant be counted on to make up "lost" revenue.

If you want exposure to cruise lines, I would suggest buying long-dated out of the money call options. If the trade goes belly up, the dollar risk is much less vs buying the stocks. If the trade hits, you make money and can buy at a discount if the stock goes beyond the strike and you execute. This way hedges some risk by using options.

Disclaimer: I am long deep oom calls on RCL for Jan '21. I am look at a horrid 3 months and then 6 months for the stock to appreciate. Also hoping for a big market pump if Trump wins in Nov.

Anyone had any winners this week?
I'm green on UHC which got a massive bump after Super Tues. Also green on WMT I grabbed around 105$

My big losers so far are M but i am over 11% div yield as long as they dont cut it. So that mitigates it a bit. I'm down on DIS, but that is my own fault for buying in a little too early.

I bought some long-dated oom calls on BA today.

Pharazon2 said:

During trading today it was noted that the 10-year yield dropped under 0.9% for the first time ever (well duh its been all firsts lately but anyways.. ) And now 12 hours later its just dropped under 0.8%. I think it was just a week ago it dropped under 1.3% for the first time ever... odds of another Fed rate cut in a couple weeks going up by the day.

Futures are only down marginally atm but wouldn't be surprised to see another 1k dow drop by the end of trading tomorrow.

Click to expand...

I'm not a fan of the rate cut. There wasn't a monetary need for it. A global unforeseen event was going to hammer earnings for a quarter. Shit happens. The markets had a near parabolic run up and there is risk.

As for futures it's looking to be an ugly open. Or I guess these days we would call it a normal open. It's funny that these days I consider it a win when I look at the futures and I dont have a stock on the worst performers list.

We're rocketing toward my buy in point way faster than expected, and the dollar is getting trashed in its strength. It's a strong sign that there is a lot of money being cashed out.

For long term investors, I believe there's a point where you need to move from cash/bonds back into stocks even though they are losing ground. Everything is gonna go up in flames if it stays on this track. Big corps that won't sink are what I'll put my money into, staying away from most tech and service. I'm probably a few weeks away from that decision still though.

Blazin said:

Click to expand...

100% agree. That's why I panick'd early when I was the only one smart enough and everything was high and am advising buying BACK into stocks while they are being panic sold. My advise has been counter market forces for the past month.

It's just unfortunate that I think this is ugly enough that I'm gonna have to go in before the bottom hits.