Investing General Discussion

Furry said:

If I were lord of the fed, I'd raise interest rates and incrementally increase reserve ratio while stopping the repo market lending from the fed. Bring some accountability to the markets by letting them know you're gonna intentionally break the institutions playing risky in order to try and max profits. Hold to your word and sacrifice some of the shitty ones straight into the fire.

Loose policy got us here, I'd tighten the grip.

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This would help in a lot of ways but it would also create a very strong dollar hurting international companies. But maybe the nut of all of this is that reduced international dependence is a good thing.

I have about 30% cash yet, hoping to see a test of the 200 week ma, currently in the 260s on SPY. But people who wait and wait wanting a buying opportunity always forget that buying opportunities feel really shitty. It's always "yeah but..." you are never going to get discounted prices without a bunch of "yeah buts"

You'd be better off keeping an open mind and just watch what is happening. When we make calls, it clouds our judgement because we pick a side. Price is truth end of story. Watch the market action and it will show us all we need to know. I obviously don't need to list bearish things for you given your sentiment, but consider we have rallied to end the day two Fridays in a row in weeks that were as ugly as you can get. It's one data point, it shouldn't be ignored. The most beat up names turned it around today, one data point that shouldn't be ignored. Bonds are grossly overbought far worse than stocks were just a short bit ago. Daily RSI on TLT is 83.

I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything other than to look at all the data not just what confirms a preconceived notion, and most of all enjoy your weekend, this too shall pass.

Furry said:

I made my call 6 weeks ago. I'm just a spectator. I'm just noting where the markets need to go from here to stay within my predictions. I expect some upside for 1-2 weeks for things to stay aligned.

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Why? Who cares...

LachiusTZ said:

Can you translate this to street person speak?

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It's just trader talk that we all know is BS but it's common referred to. The Fed has not participated in the equity market. Traders will often refer to the Plunge Protection Team to explain strong buying at key points. In reality we are witnessing algo's that are honed in on the technicals so they magically appear at critical points.

Frenzied Wombat said:

So I've got 40K in cash that I've been sitting on waiting to invest since this coronavirus crash started.. After the next big drop, would I be insane to dump it into a triple levered Q?

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Answer to this is easy, if it's a 3x then if you want to take $120K in risk with that 40k then sure. But that means if we see further declines you will lose at the rate of a $120k buy instead of a $40k. There is some slippage, in periods less than a year it's usually minor. However, the larger the move the more the slippage (1-3%). It could be a ballys move that could pay off or it might magnify pain in the short term to the extent that you then make a bad choice because you exceeded your risk tolerance.

wormie said:

I guarantee you that majority of people using those terms here are doing it seriously as if these are real things.

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Oh I have no doubt, we some have some Robinhood level amateurs. I wish there was a way for us to show real account levels and weed out some of the BS, but this thread has been pretty free of them over the years, red markets always brings them around.