Investing General Discussion

Furry said:

We're rocketing toward my buy in point way faster than expected, and the dollar is getting trashed in its strength. It's a strong sign that there is a lot of money being cashed out.

For long term investors, I believe there's a point where you need to move from cash/bonds back into stocks even though they are losing ground. Everything is gonna go up in flames if it stays on this track. Big corps that won't sink are what I'll put my money into, staying away from most tech and service. I'm probably a few weeks away from that decision still though.

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Moving out of stocks into 100% bonds then back to stocks in a 3 month period is batshit fucking insane and anyone who does this is mentally ill.

Oh wait I guess you're doing this within a period of less than 45 days.

TJT said:

Moving out of stocks into 100% bonds then back to stocks in a 3 month period is batshit fucking insane and anyone who does this is mentally ill.

Oh wait I guess you're doing this within a period of less than 45 days.

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I lost about 1% off the high because of bid/ask differences, but I completely avoided the crash so far. Honestly I feel like everyone else is insane for not seeing it coming easily and positioning themselves right. I sure don't feel insane looking at how my investments have done vs the average this last month.

Blazin said:

Can feel the panic fading, we are into the gap now, rally becoming increasingly more likely. Déjà vu with last Friday

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Has some merit. I didn't expect -20% until mid april. The chinaplague numbers wont look that bad the next couple weeks since we're still early in the cycle compared to china. Could easily see some positive, especially next week.This thing being over? No.

I don't make any effort to time the market. So I would never have considered doing that. Its not a loss until you actually sell it at a loss.

As I've said I've never sold a stock. I've never had a reason to. When shit drops below to bargain bin prices. I buy more and hold. This practice has served me well.

We ended up getting in RCL @ 62.70 from the open, CCL didn't trigger. It's a small position by our standards, so we'll see what happens.

Don't time stocks *posts about the right time to buy stocks.

I almost never sell stocks or anything else I've decided to hold. The vast majority of my retirement and money making scheme is tax avoidance and adding to my pool of money above all else. But when you see a recession coming a month off with some pretty basic statistical analysis of events, no reason you shouldn't make an easy profit.

Blazin said:

Fed could dump a few trillion in bonds onto the market at big gains and it would help ease the pressure. Would love to be a fly on the wall to hear their internal machinations.

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Pretty sure they are going to stick to a quiet greasing of the wheels for a bit after the reaction their rate cut got. Pretty sure they are very afraid of causing extra panic.

I certainly expect the QE route. It worked last recession so why not this one, at least thats the argument they'll make. This is a very different sort of crash than 2008 though. The credit issues and the euphoria of lending are all there in many similarly bad ways, but the underlying catalyst is a unique beast.