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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
I sold MSFT calls @ 245 so it needs to calm its tits a little.
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This is one thing I really like about FTEC. It is heavily weighted toward AAPL and MSFT which are the two dogs I want pulling my sled over the long term.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Few things annoy me more than being first up in the limit que and others getting filled ahead of me. I am guessing the brokers on other exchanges decided to fill their own so they didnt make it to the open exchange.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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By chance, are your orders hidden or visible? IIRC, hidden orders have lower priority vs visible ones.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Few things annoy me more than being first up in the limit que and others getting filled ahead of me. I am guessing the brokers on other exchanges decided to fill their own so they didnt make it to the open exchange.
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Sometimes you just have to trust Fidelity to improve your fill and go for it. It's probably 50/50 for me so far.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Blazin said:
Sometimes you just have to trust Fidelity to improve your fill and go for it. It's probably 50/50 for me so far.
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Fidelity Price Improvement seems nice, at least what is reported to me. Sitting at 260 improvements for $3,377 on the year.

Who knows though?
 
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Big Phoenix

Big Phoenix

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Blazin said:
We should hit the lower range of where I think S&P will top out in the near term (4100-4300). Market is showing incredible strength our natural inclination is to be cautious, which is prudent.
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My base case was that nasdaq would get to it's previous ATH but stall, if it is able to punch through then that will change my outlook for how strong of a pullback we may get. Meaning a new high means pullback will likely be to more shallow. On average the market experiences an 11-14% decline from peak to trough every calendar year. There are years though where pullbacks are extremely muted and shallow. I hate trading those years as you are constantly positioning for a "normal" that never comes. See 1995 & 2017 for examples.

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People have increased equity positions and reduced cash. We are pushing the upper levels.
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None of these data points means "CRASH IS COMING" but it probabilities are increasing that the markets may struggle to find further progress without a reset in price or time. Strong bull markets can often resolve these periods by just going nowhere for a bit and let things cool off. None of this means much with a many year time horizon, where the outlook is bright as we are in the early stages of a new expansionary cycle.

Either way people should be ready for a change in behavior soon. Will watch it day by day, if the market blows through my range and goes even higher beyond 4300 without correcting for time or price, then will have to evaluate that and look at the weight of the evidence at the time. Anecdotally I would become more concerned if that happens not less. More froth means stronger corrective action which can then build into something worse with a system that we know can be fragile to stress
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Falstaff

Falstaff

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It's a fantastic movie. Last time I watched it a few months ago it was free on NBC Peacock app.

Also this, headline, comments, etc. made me laugh

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
Borzak

Borzak

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Looks like XOM comes in at 37. Market cap is "only" 236b
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1 trillion a few years ago. Not even in the top 3 of oil drilling producers in the permian basin anymore and now has at least 1 board member from Comcast that is going to help turn them "green". Not good.

But yeah in other parts of the world a lot of the oil companies are tied in with the government. The second largest group of refineries on the gulf coast now behind Exxon are partially owned by the Saudis. That's been building over the last 20 years. Venzuela had a couple. No idea how tied in BP is with the government. When Texaco became Star Enterprise I think that was a partnership with the Saudis, been a long time I may be fuzzy on that and it may have been Motiva.

I'm probably todally wrong but I think XOM is much more of an international company that Microsoft or Apple. They may have customers across the globe but XOM has upstream and downstream across the globe and their own transportation for raw product and finished product.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Borzak said:
1 trillion a few years ago. Not even in the top 3 of oil drilling producers in the permian basin anymore and now has at least 1 board member from Comcast that is going to help turn them "green". Not good.

But yeah in other parts of the world a lot of the oil companies are tied in with the government. The second largest group of refineries on the gulf coast now behind Exxon are partially owned by the Saudis. That's been building over the last 20 years. Venzuela had a couple. No idea how tied in BP is with the government. When Texaco became Star Enterprise I think that was a partnership with the Saudis, been a long time I may be fuzzy on that and it may have been Motiva.

I'm probably todally wrong but I think XOM is much more of an international company that Microsoft or Apple. They may have customers across the globe but XOM has upstream and downstream across the globe and their own transportation for raw product and finished product.
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A few years old but more than half of MSFT enormous revenue comes from outside the US. It has grown since as more shithole countries discovery computers.

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