Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,518
As we both know, Burry can be 100% right but if his timeframe is off by a few years like it was last time then how much does it matter.
Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
Tmac
Adventurer
- 9,316
- 15,812
Accurate, but not precise, equals going broke.
- 1
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,518
Blazin
Creative Title
- 6,395
- 33,549
I think we often underestimate the market in both directions. I do think we could see SPX 6000 before the next cyclical bear market, but keep in mind if that cyclical bear takes us down 36% we'd be back to 3,840 at it's end. You can spend so many months marching higher and higher and erase those gains in a very short period. I spit ball the next cyclical bear to be in 2023 and I still believe this secular bull will continue to the early 2030s. I think for people our age it's that secular bear market we need to think about when the time comes as many will not want to sit through a 10-13yr bear when you are in your 50-60s
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,518
Furry
WoW Office
- 19,495
- 24,600
I think in the modern age, cycles will never be as slow as they were prior to the 2000s. In the new age of panic and printing, I doubt a 10 year bear market is even possible.
Is it wise to include anything bond related in a Roth IRA, for the sake of diversification, given inflation at this time? I’m in my mid 30’s, want to invest a little more on the aggressive side, and am having a hell of a time trying to figure this stuff out. Seems broad market etfs or mutual funds are generally recommended, but deciding on which specific ones to choose is my issue. Any advice, fellow investors?
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,518
Speaking only for me, bonds have no place in a portfolio "at the current rates". I am not anti-bond but current rates are just not investable. Find a bond substitute that while it will be an equity, it can be seen as very low beta. Something like PFF or JEPI.
- 1
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 36,316
- 115,198
I'll echo that about not even having bonds anymore, mostly because the yield just isn't there.
But if you were, I would put them in something like a taxable. Save your tax advantaged accounts for equities.
As far as fund choice, I prefer total market. Index funds that mirror the SP 500 are okay (SPY), but you kind of miss out on all the small cap stuff. Which frequently has incredible growth. From a finance perspective, it essentially eliminates everything but market risk from your portfolio. Theoretically the formula says you can do that with a mix of 10-15 different stocks, but more is better! It also, in my opinion, eliminates any need to diversify into international. I do miss out on the Nestle's and Sony's and whatnot, but US companies provide enough international exposure for me.
But if you were, I would put them in something like a taxable. Save your tax advantaged accounts for equities.
As far as fund choice, I prefer total market. Index funds that mirror the SP 500 are okay (SPY), but you kind of miss out on all the small cap stuff. Which frequently has incredible growth. From a finance perspective, it essentially eliminates everything but market risk from your portfolio. Theoretically the formula says you can do that with a mix of 10-15 different stocks, but more is better! It also, in my opinion, eliminates any need to diversify into international. I do miss out on the Nestle's and Sony's and whatnot, but US companies provide enough international exposure for me.
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,518
I find the ideal mix to be a core ETF (for instance the total market) at say 40-70% and then sprinkles of high quality moat possessing blue chips. Yes you already own them in the total market ETF, but being overweight MST, WMT, JNJ, AAPL etc will rarely put you at a competitive disadvantage.
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
- 44,608
- 93,144
- 10,502
- 54,144
You are now under FoHSEC investigation for market manipulation via this post, sir!
, J/K Mr. M00sk- 1
swayze22
Elite
- 1,211
- 1,091
Sanrith Descartes
or anyoneWhat should I do with my "normal" 401k right now? I realized I left 10% in SPHIX bonds and need to make changes.
I was 40% VFIAX, 25% RGAGX, 10% VSMAX, 5% VGSLX, 5% VTIAX, 5% VTRIX, and the bonds.
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,518
The market is at absolute tops right now, so understand the short term move into something near the top may take time for it to show returns. That being said, the VFAIX S&P 500 Admiral is the beast. Add to it. Full disclosure: It is my choice in my 401k as well. 100% allocation.
What should I do with my "normal" 401k right now? I realized I left 10% in SPHIX bonds and need to make changes.
I was 40% VFIAX, 25% RGAGX, 10% VSMAX, 5% VGSLX, 5% VTIAX, 5% VTRIX, and the bonds.
View attachment 355266
View attachment 355267
edit: VTIAX Intl has been fools gold for a long time. it just rarely lives up to US returns.
- 1
swayze22
Elite
- 1,211
- 1,091
Thank you. Yep I just think the bonds are a waste of time right now and wish I would have realized earlier. Nothing looks too crazy right?
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,518
I edited my post. VTIAX the international funds have underperformed US equities for a long time and I expect them to take longer to recover from Coronachan. I would dump it into the Admiral as well.
- 1
Asshat wormie
2023 Asshat Award Winner
- 16,820
- 30,963
