Investing General Discussion

Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,408
33,625
I still have yet to make a trade in July and don't know that I will. I've been so consumed with farm just have had no interest whatsoever. We are now at the upper bounds of where I thought we would go without a more sizeable pullback (6-10%). We are up against a rising wedge right now but yet there doesn't seem to be any kind of buildup towards a selloff. Bearish rising wedges have resolved to the upside over and over this entire rally. Really feels like we are getting 2017 again which means we may get no pullbacks greater than 3% for the entire year and we just keep marching towards 4600+
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,499
107,556
Blazin said:
I still have yet to make a trade in July and don't know that I will. I've been so consumed with farm just have had no interest whatsoever. We are now at the upper bounds of where I thought we would go without a more sizeable pullback (6-10%). We are up against a rising wedge right now but yet there doesn't seem to be any kind of buildup towards a selloff. Bearish rising wedges have resolved to the upside over and over this entire rally. Really feels like we are getting 2017 again which means we may get no pullbacks greater than 3% for the entire year and we just keep marching towards 4600+
Click to expand...
Its funny you post this because I was getting ready to ask you where you are putting money. The only add I have made in a month has been BABA. I havent seen much that says "buy me" the last two months.
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,408
33,625
Just to elaborate more on the "why" of it, we saw that market participants seem to want to take the market to a forward P/E of 22 based on it's current sector makeup and growth rate. Estimated 2022 earnings for the S&P just continue to be too low, we will probably have another quarter of just blowing through the estimates. I think we are going to see those 2022 earnings start pushing towards $210. That gives us an S&P value of 4,620. One of the harder things to see right now is the pace of earnings growth in Q1-Q3 of 22 as unlike this year you'll be going up against a much higher comp. If YOY earnings growth slows because we fall back to 2% GDP growth then that will put serious pressure on that P/E.

If we have $210 in earnings but a much reduced forward projected growth and we revert to a 19 P/E suddenly we are back at 3990 on the same earnings.

Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes I only hold S&P 500 and Russell 2000 right and Cash right now
 
  • 1ViaGralis
Reactions: 1 user
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
36,406
115,722
Khane said:
I wasn't saying "Hey Gravel, learn what that word means". I was saying "Yea, transitory, convenient for the Fed because they are using that word incorrectly and by that logic technically all Inflation is transitory"

I was agreeing with him but didn't qualify properly
Click to expand...
That's the entire reason I point it out though. I've done it in this thread and Politics a few times.

Because normally if you hear a word, you think it means something. I like to point out that when the government and/or Fed is talking about it, they're being incredibly disingenuous. "Transitory" hurts just as much as normal inflation, but they downplay it as if it's somehow not important.

My wallet doesn't give a shit if it's transitory or "normal" inflation. Either way my buying power is hurt the exact same way. Normal inflation is just a continuous process by their definition. But most people think of transitory as exactly the same.

It's really just more shell games like changing CPI basket to whatever the fuck looks best.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
36,406
115,722
Sanrith Descartes said:
Its funny you post this because I was getting ready to ask you where you are putting money. The only add I have made in a month has been BABA. I havent seen much that says "buy me" the last two months.
Click to expand...
Same here. Yesterday I was actually thinking that as we got really damn close to 4400. I'm pretty sure Blazin Blazin originally said he thought we'd see 4300-4400, and well, here we are.

It seems so unsustainable. But then I always come back to, "where else are people going to put their money?" Real estate seems to be the only other option that isn't complete shit, and that's in a massive bubble now too.
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,408
33,625
Gravel said:
It's really just more shell games like changing CPI basket to whatever the fuck looks best.
Click to expand...

Spot on post, but for this part. The argument of most critics is that they are too slow to change it not they are changing it often to look better. They aren't changing it enough to reflect the habits of consumers. There are lots of things that the average citizen would assume was in there that are not. Almost all home owners make upgrades/renos/maintenance to their homes, and it's costly part of ownership but the CPI does not include these type of expenses as they are not categorized as living expenses as one example.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,499
107,556
Blazin said:
Just to elaborate more on the "why" of it, we saw that market participants seem to want to take the market to a forward P/E of 22 based on it's current sector makeup and growth rate. Estimated 2022 earnings for the S&P just continue to be too low, we will probably have another quarter of just blowing through the estimates. I think we are going to see those 2022 earnings start pushing towards $210. That gives us an S&P value of 4,620. One of the harder things to see right now is the pace of earnings growth in Q1-Q3 of 22 as unlike this year you'll be going up against a much higher comp. If YOY earnings growth slows because we fall back to 2% GDP growth then that will put serious pressure on that P/E.

If we have $210 in earnings but a much reduced forward projected growth and we revert to a 19 P/E suddenly we are back at 3990 on the same earnings.

Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes I only hold S&P 500 and Russell 2000 right and Cash right now
Click to expand...
I have the largest cash position I have had all year (mainly from pulling profits off the table with NVDA and LMT). I am leaning toward basically taking the summer off and really just sniping quality things I see get oversold on earnings or news (like I did with ABT) and moving back into NVDA (post split drop) and LMT.
 
  • 1ViaGralis
Reactions: 1 user
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,408
33,625
The largest problem is that the tremendous liquidity the Fed adds flows to mostly areas they don't use a meter for "when it's full" . They are filling a bucket and only measuring the drips and splashes, they create massive distortions that they completely ignore as they stay focused on a very narrow view. Asset price inflation gets a shoulder shrug while they hyper focus on the cost of a can of corn.

My biggest concern is that equity politics have now crept into their thought process. Despite the running spigot at full blast is making wealth disparities worse they think they can just keep flooding the system it will begin to repair the wealth level of POC. Fed Chairs for decades have talked about how their tool set is ill suited for the task and even JPowell knows that but they are going to do their best anyway ignoring the damage it causes because that's just how much they care.

I don't want to get into the politics of it in this thread, but it is something for people to understand how they are making decisions as to best understand the moves they are making and are likely to make in the future.
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,499
107,556
Blazin said:
The largest problem is that the tremendous liquidity the Fed adds flows to mostly areas they don't use a meter for "when it's full" . They are filling a bucket and only measuring the drips and splashes, they create massive distortions that they completely ignore as they stay focused on a very narrow view. Asset price inflation gets a shoulder shrug while they hyper focus on the cost of a can of corn.

My biggest concern is that equity politics have now crept into their thought process. Despite the running spigot at full blast is making wealth disparities worse they think they can just keep flooding the system it will begin to repair the wealth level of POC. Fed Chairs for decades have talked about how their tool set is ill suited for the task and even JPowell knows that but they are going to do their best anyway ignoring the damage it causes because that's just how much they care.

I don't want to get into the politics of it in this thread, but it is something for people to understand how they are making decisions as to best understand the moves they are making and are likely to make in the future.
Click to expand...
So you are saying to go long NKE?
 
Hateyou

Hateyou

Not Great, Not Terrible
<Bronze Donator>
16,306
42,400
Haus said:
OK. I have a money management hypothetical for the group. This seems to be the best thread to post it in as one side of the hypothetical involves investment strategy... (This spawned off a conversation I have had ongoing with a co-worker involving personal money management)

Say you were in a position where a windfall came your way. (Maybe you hit big in a poker tournament, got lucky on picking 5/6 numbers, got a really large commission or bonus check from your work, your dog dug up a huge crate of Nazi Gold Ingots... whatever...) And you have decisions to make....

1) Pay off your house (mortgage) and your car. (Achieve the Dave Ramsey dream state of truly zero debt whatsoever)
2) Pay off your car, your remaining student loan balance, take a really nice vacation, buy some guns and ammo, and invest the rest in a split of stocks, crypto, and yield farming stablecoins.
3) Just buy a few toys and invest in the split of stocks/crypto/etc.
4) Pay off your car, and put a very nice down payment on some land outside town to build your post apocalyptic compound on...

All three include wiping the small amount of non-secured credit card debt you have, your mortgage and car payment interest rates are both below 3.5%. Doing any of the three wouldn't leave money to do the others.... (you get the idea.)

Or is there a better option?
Click to expand...
This is pretty fucking obvious really. Click this when you see it and buy whatever it says.

CA17CF93-9572-4BB0-A0FB-7C86F15E47A9.jpeg
 
  • 5Worf
  • 1To the Moon!
Reactions: 5 users
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,499
107,556
I broke down my non-ETF holdings. Top 5 individual stocks make up almost 30% of my portfolio. Spread out over 3 sectors.

1626205337904.png
 
  • 1Thoughts & Prayers
Reactions: 1 user
Leibowitz

Leibowitz

Trakanon Raider
146
106
Before you get a newsletter, I recommend you check out Stock Gumshoe.com. It s free to join and investigates a large number of the newsletters and takes educated guesses as to which stock is being touted.
 
Last edited:
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,499
107,556
BABA starting to rip this morning on this rumor/ +3.5%


Alibaba, Tencent mull over opening up services to each other - WSJ
REUTERS 7:46 AM ET 7/14/2021
Symbol Last Price Change
BABA 209.51down 0 (0%)
QUOTES AS OF 04:10:00 PM ET 07/13/2021
July 14 (Reuters) - China's two online giants Alibaba Group Holding Ltd(BABA) and Tencent Holdings Ltd are gradually considering opening up their services to each other, according to a Wall Street Journal report on Wednesday.

It comes days after China's crackdown on a number of technology companies with overseas listings including Didi Chuxing, Tencent and Alibaba(BABA).

Both Alibaba(BABA) and Tencent are working on new plans separately to loosen up restrictions including introducing Tencent's WeChat Pay to Alibaba's(BABA) e-commerce marketplaces, Taobao and Tmall, the WSJ report added, citing people familiar with the matter.

Alibaba (BABA) did not immediately respond to a request for comment while Tencent could not be immediately reached. (Reporting by Tiyashi Datta in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,408
33,625
Sanrith Descartes said:
I have the largest cash position I have had all year (mainly from pulling profits off the table with NVDA and LMT). I am leaning toward basically taking the summer off and really just sniping quality things I see get oversold on earnings or news (like I did with ABT) and moving back into NVDA (post split drop) and LMT.
Click to expand...
I also own WMT, it so does nothing I forgot I owned it :)
 
  • 1Diamond Hands
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,499
107,556
Stocks I am keeping an eye on. Any feedback would be appreciated.

CAT - Bought it and flipped it last year form the crash for a nice profit. Wouldn't mind owning it again. 200 DMA is $202. Current price is $214. It had a nice run and even $202 is probably a stretch so it will take some time for it to pay off but its a company I like with solid fundamentals. PS.. everything is going to be a stretch price-wise these days.

1626270512661.png


CVS - Same as CAT above. Current price is $82. 200 DMA is around $74

1626270726965.png


T - The amount of things I dont like about T can fill volumes. That being said they are finally looking to cut their debt load. They will own 60% of the DISC/HBO merger. Calculating in a possible 50% dividend cut I like the stock around $26.50 and cutting the dividend frees up almost 8b a year in free cash to work on the debt and most if not all of that debt is at a really low interest rate.

LMT - Waiting on it to continue its downward cycle and then I will grab it again. Same with NOC.

CVX - I am actually considering CVX when oil cycles back down again. It is financially the best of the oil majors and I sort of regret not grabbing it back under $70. Its dividend is safe and oil isnt going away any time soon.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,499
107,556
Sold my PG and took the profits off the table. Last four tries it has bounced off overhead resistance here in the mid 138's.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,499
107,556
NVDA split is occurring after EOB on Monday. Looks like people are finally heading toward the exits and looking in profit from the massive run-up. -3.5% so far today.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.