Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 7, 2021

Shonuff said:
Going through my trades. I made $4,005 last week (Mon 253, Tues 0, Wed 2533, Thurs 475 and Fri 744). On Monday, when I wasn't feeling well from the covid shot, I lost 1,200 in 30 minutes of trading, and I have no idea why I made those trades. They were garbage, I wasn't feeling right. Wednesday, I made 0 because I held overnight. I traded the last hour after being up, and lost almost 1k getting my face melted. I shorted and it ripped the other way. I bought and it immediately reversed. I know better. I should have left in the first hour. Thursday, I lost 600 to macroing at the open.

Factor out those areas, and it would have been a 7k week.

Also, like Blazin said, earlier in the week, I wasn't programming enough profit in my trades. When he said to review my trades to see what happened after, literally, I could've doubled my profits on 80% of my trades.

Friday, all trades were perfect, and I made 744 in less than one hour. I get the mentality that I need to stay all day, and thats not good. I think if I can make 744 in an hour, I can make 5-6k all day. That's when I start losing trades. The trading gets choppy at lunch (algorithms) or I try to try in power hour and get my face melted. If I'm on past 10:30 my time, I usually start losing trades. 8:45 to 10:30 is my sweet spot.

I feel like a pussy for leaving in 50 minutes on Friday. Because I want to dominate the stock all day. And then I realize that nothing I said in the last two sentences makes any sense for traders. It's not a fight, but I have this feeling like I walked away from one. This line of thinking is not right for trading.

We invest totally differently and yet a lot of the ideas are the same. While I have the screen up on a monitor all day, most of my decisions are made pre-market, first hour or so and maybe late in the day reacting to news. I identify targets (if there are any), analyze the prices for entry/exit and set my orders. I have to trust my judgements. If I fuck around with my orders during the day my emotions get involved and I usually screw myself out of money. Mid-day is a shit show usually and I rarely touch something during that time.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 7, 2021

Jysin said:
Step ahead of you on this.

View attachment 365857

DAL is the airline I like to trade. Its the one I feel is the most "stable" overall. I am back to writing puts on it again.

Jysin · Aug 7, 2021

DAL has been the easiest to trade during pandemic. I was buying originally last year in the $25-$26 range and sold ~$45. Busy loading the boat again during maximum fear overpanic about the Delta (covid) variant. The increase in cases is, for the most part, in the unvaccinated. Since this new wave, there is a fair number of previously unvaxxed getting the shot. Plus it will simply burn itself out in those pockets anyway.

The UK is basically the blueprint and is always a couple steps ahead of the US. Delta variant burned through the unvaxxed and is now trailing off cases / hospitalizations. Once this realization sets in, markets will see the oversold panic and the buying will come back. (Or I am completely wrong and Delta+ Delta++ Delta 3.0 sets in and we all die)

This strategy basically mimics what

Sanrith Descartes had previously said about buying when eveyone else is fearful. These are the opportunities for max profits in my longer term / swing strategies.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 7, 2021

Jysin said:
DAL has been the easiest to trade during pandemic. I was buying originally last year in the $25-$26 range and sold ~$45. Busy loading the boat again during maximum fear overpanic about the Delta (covid) variant. The increase in cases is, for the most part, in the unvaccinated. Since this new wave, there is a fair number of previously unvaxxed getting the shot. Plus it will simply burn itself out in those pockets anyway.

The UK is basically the blueprint and is always a couple steps ahead of the US. Delta variant burned through the unvaxxed and is now trailing off cases / hospitalizations. Once this realization sets in, markets will see the oversold panic and the buying will come back. (Or I am completely wrong and Delta+ Delta++ Delta 3.0 sets in and we all die)

This strategy basically mimics what Sanrith Descartes had previously said about buying when eveyone else is fearful. These are the opportunities for max profits in my longer term / swing strategies.

View attachment 365860

Not turning this into a vax derail, but if you believe the cases are mainly in the unvaxxed you might want to head over the Coronachan thread. Just be reminded it isnt in the more genteel grown-up section of the board

https://www.firesofheaven.org/threads/2020-chinese-coronavirus.11695/

And yeah, but when the market is puking is my motto.

Shonuff · Aug 7, 2021

I'm long term in BA and DAL. Starting to think now is the time to make a trade on airlines through the JETS ETF.

Jysin · Aug 7, 2021

Highly Vaccinated States Keep Worst Covid-19 Outcomes in Check as Delta Spreads, WSJ Analysis Shows

The Delta variant has driven up U.S. Covid-19 cases, but hospitalizations and deaths have risen more slowly in areas with more vaccinations, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows.

www.wsj.com

If there is a silver lining, the Delta-driven outbreak appears to be spurring on more people to get vaccinated, particularly in states hit hard by recent surges.

None of the vaccines have been 100%. My own cousin, fully vaxxed, got covid last month. Point being, the new spike in cases has a very high correlation with the unvaxxed pockets of the population. Not a covid derail, but completely relevant to discussing the travel sector investing, which I think has been hammered into oversold territory.

Shonuff · Aug 7, 2021

Jysin said:
Highly Vaccinated States Keep Worst Covid-19 Outcomes in Check as Delta Spreads, WSJ Analysis Shows

The Delta variant has driven up U.S. Covid-19 cases, but hospitalizations and deaths have risen more slowly in areas with more vaccinations, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows.

www.wsj.com

None of the vaccines have been 100%. My own cousin, fully vaxxed, got covid last month. Point being, the new spike in cases has a very high correlation with the unvaxxed pockets of the population. Not a covid derail, but completely relevant to discussing the travel sector investing, which I think has been hammered into oversold territory.

max fear = max profits

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 7, 2021

Besides airlines, I am also keeping an eye on WYNN (thanks Cramer and

Shonuff ). It was on my radar last year during the meltdown but figured it would take too long for it to recover. Cramer reminded me its a stock to watch. I am hoping a spat of bad Coronachan news can spike it down below $90 and I will grab some.

Jysin · Aug 7, 2021

I have also been in NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Lines). Easier chart over the last year, and also massively sold off on the 19th last month.

Shonuff · Aug 7, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
Besides airlines, I am also keeping an eye on WYNN (thanks Cramer and Shonuff ). It was on my radar last year during the meltdown but figured it would take too long for it to recover. Cramer reminded me its a stock to watch. I am hoping a spat of bad Coronachan news can spike it down below $90 and I will grab some.

Forgot, I own that also. I bought early. Oh well. My average price is 123. Its the only one of Cramer's picks on actionalerts that is down. Covid worries.

Shonuff · Aug 7, 2021

CPI numbers are this week, so I'd be real careful making huge bets, and wouldn't make any on Wed until numbers are released.

Borzak · Aug 8, 2021

Any ideas on where I can put 6 figures of cash I'm getting on a house sale. I'll do something more permanent in the next 6+ months but for now I need to keep it liquid enough I can get to it within a month. Money market? In the past any large amounts of money I brought in work wise went back into the business or other things I already had planned out.

Blazin · Aug 8, 2021

Borzak said:
Any ideas on where I can put 6 figures of cash I'm getting on a house sale. I'll do something more permanent in the next 6+ months but for now I need to keep it liquid enough I can get to it within a month. Money market? In the past any large amounts of money I brought in work wise went back into the business or other things I already had planned out.

For that short term just money market which unfortunately aren’t paying shit

Borzak · Aug 8, 2021

Blazin said:
For that short term just money market which unfortunately aren’t paying shit

Yup, inherited from my grandmother that died at 100. Till the day she died she never let you forget about the time she got 18% in CD's in the early 80's.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 8, 2021

Lightning Lord Rule · Aug 8, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:

So is this another case of ZeroHedge predicting 58 of the last 5 crashes, or are they on to something? Personally I think the last 6 weeks have been pretty shit, and it seems like more sideways action is a best case scenario. But I bow to the opinion of our more grizzled market vets here.

Fogel · Aug 8, 2021

I'll be focusing on selling puts for awhile unless something changes since I agree that things will go sideways

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 8, 2021

Lightning Lord Rule said:
So is this another case of ZeroHedge predicting 58 of the last 5 crashes, or are they on to something? Personally I think the last 6 weeks have been pretty shit, and it seems like more sideways action is a best case scenario. But I bow to the opinion of our more grizzled market vets here.

ZH is bear pron, but data is data. The Coronachan variable is a once in a century type of event so historical data is only worth so much. Adding the virus into the mix means...

Who Knows Whatever GIF by Paul McCartney

Lightning Lord Rule · Aug 8, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
ZH is bear pron, but data is data. The Coronachan variable is a once in a century type of event so historical data is only worth so much. Adding the virus into the mix means...

There has been lots of signals and hints about more lockdowns coming in September, so I think the question is: Does the market go up or down should that materialize? Is there really that much more to take out of main street that wasn't taken out last year? Does that mean more QE/stimulus is on the table? That would definitely send things up again IMO. Failing that, I think the aforementioned shorting of airlines and cruiselines and travel related industries like casinos are a good play. I wonder how much pain all of those guys can take before some of them start to go under? Unlike banks I don't think any of those players other than maybe Boeing or maybe Lockheed is in the 'too big to fail' category...

Gravel · Aug 8, 2021

I'm still predicting a correction in September or October. But at this point that only brings us down to where we were around the beginning of April.

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