Investing General Discussion

Gravel said:

Haven't kept up with this thread as it's basically become the market timer/day-trader thread, but I've read a few posts every couple weeks and feel bad that most of you weren't just dollar cost averaging.

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Its pretty obvious you haven't been keeping up with the thread since pretty much every poster talks about how you can't time the market and market timing is bad. Same for the idea people weren't buying on the way down and averaging.

Gravel said:

Haven't kept up with this thread as it's basically become the market timer/day-trader thread, but I've read a few posts every couple weeks and feel bad that most of you weren't just dollar cost averaging.

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I mean most of us do just buy index funds and I definitely sit and go long on just about everything. This thread would be real dull if we all just talked about how we put every available cent into indexes and etfs all the time.

I bought the whole way down. Worth every penny.

TJT said:

I mean most of us do just buy index funds and I definitely sit and go long on just about everything. This thread would be real dull if we all just talked about how we put every available cent into indexes and etfs all the time.

I bought the whole way down. Worth every penny.

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Index funds are an essential component of a portfolio for 95% of investors. One of the biggest mistakes investors make is a lack of true diversity (not the George Floyd type of diversity). Something like the SPY gives access to 500 companies across all the sectors of the market. The ITOT spreads money to the entire market (5k plus companies). And yes there is nothing wrong with 100% index portfolios. Owning the breadth of the market is a good thing.

Gravel said:

Literally every time I'm in this thread, it's people saying "Just bought some puts in on X" or "Bought some of stock Y. Gonna hold it for Z number of days."

Basically ever since mid-February.

Shit, lemme just look at the last page. Post about cruise lines stocks, you posted one about buying Exxon, and then 15 minutes later about Universal Health, then a post about AMD, a call on US Steel, a post about Hertz, then Nvidia/AMD/Intel, a few posts later one about United Airlines, a couple more and you posted about oil hitting $40 a barrel, and the last on the page you explaining to someone how to market time their "exit."

Those are all posts about actively trading, e.g. trying to time the market. That's fine, but it gives the impression that all you people are doing is day trading. There's certainly money to be made there, especially with how volatile things are. But man, I'd hate to be an amateur investor coming in here trying to mimic what a lot of you are doing. Going to end up broke as fuck.

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I hear what you are saying. Do people post in this thread daily saying "use index funds"? No of course not. This thread has conversations about all different levels of investing and different strategies. I just searched the thread for "index fund" and it had more than 5 pages of hits. I say regulary that my personal view is that index funds are crucial to making up the backbone of every investment portfolio. I currently own four (IVV, QQQ, SPYG and XLK).

There is also some more advanced discussions that happen in terms of options plays or opportunities that present themselves for individual stocks.

As for my oil hitting $40 comment, you must have not been in the thread for the pages of discussions when oil futures traded negative and people lost fortunes trying to jump into "easy money" with USO have zero idea about contracts and contango. Oil prices are a major influence of economic activity and it has a direct impact on the stock market. Oil hitting $40 is a variable that impacts everyone, even those only looking to drop their money into an SP500 index fund.

To get this thread back on track, I maxed ira contributions for both 2019 and 2020 mid April. All funds went into vanguards VFIAX.

You are welcome.

Since we are speaking of index funds, it snyone looking for consistent dividend income the SPYD is a dividend ETF. It got crushed during the crash and is still recovering. It is about 30% below the 52 high and Friday's close pays about 6.75% dividend yield. There is risk that some companies may suspend dividends but it holds 65 dividend payers so it has diversity. It obviously holds some energy companies and reits so there is risk there as well. That yield however is solid for consistent returns if you want something to simulate fixed income.

I'm honestly shocked at how high the numbers are. I predicted real estate to be hammered much worse.

Sanrith Descartes said:

I'm honestly shocked at how high the numbers are. I predicted real estate to be hammered much worse.

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I have been sitting on a pile of cash since everything closed because I need it for when construction opens up. Having cash doing nothing and watching the stock market move has sucked. I hope real estate stays strong and I hope people flee shithole boroughs and come to mine so I can sell them our houses for more money.

One thing we don't discuss much that is pretty important is diversification. Even if you are doing mutuals/ETFs it doesn't necessarily mean you have good diversification. Its about what makes up the stocks in the fund. I keep a list of the different sectors of the market and mark my stocks in the appropriate sector on the list. Then I calculate my holding $$ value for those sectors. Its very easy to lose sight of how your investments are spread out and just as easy to take an inordinate hit if you only in 1 or 2 sectors and those tank. Tech is great, but don't be all-in on tech and have the tech sector implode.

The above also helps you when sectors rotate. If money moves out of tech and into defensives and you have some of each your portfolio balance covers you to a certain degree.

Borzak said:

Oil starting to go back up.

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What CHK this morning (Chespeake Energy). We are to be witness to a vicious short squeeze today. 39% of the float was shorted and the stock is up 75% in the premarket. The people shorting those 3.5m shares are about to experience some God awful anal raping. Based on the premarket price those shorts are losing about 65m so far.