How is that any different than the situation at DAL and UAL?For those who are looking at airline stocks. I'd remain cautious about picking AAL. Business is still way down, and pretty much everyone is expecting early retirement and or furloughs to get dropped in the coming months. Lots of rumors flying around, but the only hard truth is business is still below 1/3 capacity during the busiest part of year. It aint pretty from the inside, and I can't imagine there isn't some ugly news coming.
Yep. They are extremely selective about where they go and who is allowed to run it. Their marketing and research team is top notch. I think it takes a couple years of going through their processes before one opens, a friend of a friend looked into it and backed out due to the time commitment she would have to put in just to even be considered, with a good chance of being denied.
That whole process is why every chik fil a you go to is top notch quality and service, they won’t let just any loser open one up and run it.
How is that any different than the situation at DAL and UAL?
For those who are looking at airline stocks. I'd remain cautious about picking AAL. Business is still way down, and pretty much everyone is expecting early retirement and or furloughs to get dropped in the coming months. Lots of rumors flying around, but the only hard truth is business is still below 1/3 capacity during the busiest part of year. It aint pretty from the inside, and I can't imagine there isn't some ugly news coming.
I said in the beginning, the domestic carriers are really taking advantage of this covid shit to gain marketshare while the international carriers are reeling. United sent out furlough warnings to thousands.
International pilots/crew tend to have a lot of seniority and make a lot of money compared to domestic pilots. Having them sitting around and soaking up money is probably a major disadvantage. Even if a big international airline like AAL furloughs people they'll just have 100k+/year pilots going block or better as they zig zag all over the sky and sponge up fuel on domestic routes while the cheap domestic carriers have their 35k/yr junior pilots just looking for hours.
This covid mess was a catastrophe for the international carriers, and *I feel* a unique opportunity for the domestic ones to pick low handing fruit off the behemoths.
I think the big airlines are the best long term investment opportunity on the table today. Invest today and double your money in two years. I think the likelihood of one of them declaring bankruptcy is about the same as one of the big banks going under.Hard to know how its going to sort out, and I definitely think there's money to be made if you're willing sit on airlines for some time. Generally I feel your assessment is correct, and regional/domestic focused carriers are more likely to win out in some way.
While i tend to agree, there is a fly in the ointment. You have to pick the right airline. Pick the wrong one and they are probably bankrupt. I think at least 3 US carriers file at some point.I think the big airlines are the best long term investment opportunity on the table today. Invest today and double your money in two years. I think the likelihood of one of them declaring bankruptcy is about the same as one of the big banks going under.
I think the big airlines are the best long term investment opportunity on the table today. Invest today and double your money in two years. I think the likelihood of one of them declaring bankruptcy is about the same as one of the big banks going under.
I think airlines can be a good trade with all the volatility right now. In and out grabbing 3-5% a trade over a few days. As a long term investment I would wait to see how the landscape looks in 2021. I do own DAL but got caught on the wrong side of the trade. I am making some money on it selling covered calls until I can bail on it entirely.Its the big airlines that all went bankrupt after 9/11. And if one goes bankrupt, the others will actively SEEK to go bankrupt because they cannot let their competitor be the only one that sheds debt (and pensions in the case of the last round of bankruptcies) and has a judge modify all their labor contracts in their favor.
Airlines are a whole different animal.
Meanwhile Southwest and jetBlue won't be furloughing at all and jetBlue just announced a total move from Long Beach (that dumpster fire of a nimby airport) to LAX where they must of gotten more gates and promise to expand to 70 flights a day in the coming years. They have also moved in on EWR expanding service.
I said in the beginning, the domestic carriers are really taking advantage of this covid shit to gain marketshare while the international carriers are reeling. United sent out furlough warnings to thousands.