Investing General Discussion
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Sanrith Descartes
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Big Tech earnings week is the make or break week in my opinion. The amount of influence the gigantor tech names have (AAPL, GOOG, MSFT etc) on the indexes are going to determine a lot.AAPL earnings will have a pretty big weight on the indices. Remember in December AAPL just kept powering onwards and upwards? These were the headlines at the time:
Apple Tells Suppliers iPhone Demand Has Slowed as Holidays Near
Apple Inc., suffering from a global supply crunch, is now confronting a different problem: slowing demand.www.bloomberg.com
iPhone production reportedly halted briefly in 'nightmare before Christmas' scenario caused by parts shortage - 9to5Mac
As Apple’s ever-important holiday shopping season continues, the company is facing what a new report from Nikkei Asia describes as...9to5mac.com
Apple may have a problem with iPhone demand as well as supply
More people might skip this cycle than Apple expected.www.theverge.com
Q4 earnings should tell all.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Correct. as long as the funds do not exit the account its non-taxable. Its why being able to trade in your IRA is such an advantage. Non-taxable events.
Sanrith Descartes
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I have been discussing AAPL for the last week or two. Its the big dog and it has been living off that run-up in Dec and that is the real "fuck-you" issue for the market. It "should" test the 100 DMA at $158 which is another 2.5% down from yesterday. A failure there and a test of the 200-DMA is ugly. Another 5% down from the 100-DMA. History shows us AAPL has only tested the 200-DMA once since Black Monday. MSFT has never tested the 200-DMA since Black Monday.
I think MSFT drops another 1% and tests the 200-DMA and that bounce should be enough for AAPL to reverse before it gets to the 100-DMA. AAPL and MSFT are about 10% of the entire SPY. They "should" carry it back up on a bounce. The GOOG twins are just below the 200-DMA but they dont trade on much volume. AMZN is another black swan to consider. It is below all support, crashed thru its 52-low and appears to be in freefall.
Monday gonna be fun.
Sanrith Descartes
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Jysin
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More of this wont help either:
www.wsj.com
Russia Hatching Plot to Replace Ukraine Government, U.K. Says
The allegations come in the midst of warnings that Russia could invade with around 100,000 troops gathered near its neighbor’s border.
www.wsj.com
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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If you look hard enough in finance you can always find some stat or data point to tell you what you want to hear. Fingers crossed.
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Sanrith Descartes
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swayze22
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Some of both. You can't have record home sales & refinancing if there is no demand. That also does not mean everyone in the country is interested in buying a home because, you only need one, but a lot of the data is very regional. I think there is some disassociation between the rise in prices (~16%) in 2021 and the fundamentals but with that said the macro financial aspect is much different than the pre-2008 subprime buildup where this is driven mostly by monetary policy / super low rates, not shitty financial instruments with no oversight. The average 30yr mortgage rate back then was I think around 6% if not higher, compared to around 3% in 2021.
At the same time the younger generation (home buyers) carry much more debt than generations prior. The silver lining there in terms of wealth is most of the boomers will die soon so there will be some redistributing. More kicking the can down the road for 10 years and hoping it gets better I guess?
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A shortage/overshoot cycle is one of the classic market dynamics where it takes significant time to build a stock of durable goods or production capacity. Producers all independently respond to the same signals without taking into account that their combined behavior will completely outweigh the demand gap. You see it in industry all over the place (railcars, semiconductors, forest products, oil drilling).
No clue if that's going to be a dominant force for housing in the short term or if that's going to lead to any kind of crisis, but seeing the pattern doesn't surprise me at all.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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He makes a good point. In a bear market it doesn't just plummet. It drops, then rallies, then drops then rallies. It's a long slow grind out. For those trading, you need to adjust your tactics a bit.
Tmac
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Talked to two of my buddies tonight about the home buying process. They have 2 and 3 kids and both bought a $130k house 5 years ago that is now worth $300k. They both want to get into a 4 BR house for $430k, but they don't exist.
The one house one buddy is closest to pulling the trigger on is $575k w a finished basement they can AirBNB. He'd basically use all his equity for the downpayment. I asked him why not just pay off what he's got in the next 5 years and then he'd have an asset to borrow against for his next house. But, I think the hiccup is them wanting to have another kid.
My wife and I have been looking at moving since 2021, but the market's just insane. Anywhere we go we're doubling or tripling our current monthly payment. She hates where we live now though, so there isn't really the option to wait-and-see, but I'm just hoping we don't find anything until the market is more cooperative.
TJT
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This is location dependent though. Even in the batshit Austin market you can find a 4 BR house for that much.
Moglyzoke Moogleman
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