Investing General Discussion

Moglyzoke Moogleman · Mar 30, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
Even Cramer keeps all his personal wealth in indexes.

How TV Finance Expert Jim Cramer Invests His Own Money

Long-time stock market investor Jim Cramer explains why he decided to change his strategy and if you should do the same.

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I'm starting to think there is too large of a wealth gap between us.

I'm gonna guess your net worth is to the tune of 2 to 10 million (ballpark, all assets included.) I am solidly under 100k. My mortgage was just over 200k and basically my upper limit.

Losing 30k to you is a really bad day. Losing 30k to me undid nearly a decade of work. All that time and effort spent fed right back to the street. So sorry if I come off as bitter but I am extremely. This has fucked my life up more than you realize.

Captain Suave · Mar 30, 2022

Moglyzoke Moogleman said:
I'm starting to think there is too large of a wealth gap between us.

It's a game of percentages and avoiding sunk cost fallacies. The only thing that matters is what action you can take now to benefit your future. If you're under 100k then that's all the more reason to load up on indices and focus on your earned income and savings. You'd need to take insane risks to get investing returns large enough to move the needle compared to better personal budgeting and focus on growing your career. And in the mean time, compound growth is working for you.

Moglyzoke Moogleman · Mar 30, 2022

Captain Suave said:
The only thing that matters is what action you can take now to benefit your future. If you're under 100k then that's all the more reason to load up on indices and focus on your earned income and savings.

See this is the problem though. I am dumb but I'm not so dumb to not be aware of my own stupidity.

Failure in the market is a confirmation of all my worst fears. I've always thought of myself as a sad sack of shit. Becoming an absolute garbage trader helped reinforce that view.

wormie · Mar 30, 2022

Moglyzoke Moogleman said:
See this is the problem though. I am dumb but I'm not so dumb to not be aware of my own stupidity.

Failure in the market is a confirmation of all my worst fears. I've always thought of myself as a sad sack of shit. Becoming an absolute garbage trader helped reinforce that view.

focus-your-attention-on-the-right-thing-epictetus-stoic-quote-motivational-flow.jpg

Moglyzoke Moogleman · Mar 30, 2022

Tmac · Mar 30, 2022

Moglyzoke Moogleman said:
See this is the problem though. I am dumb but I'm not so dumb to not be aware of my own stupidity.

Failure in the market is a confirmation of all my worst fears. I've always thought of myself as a sad sack of shit. Becoming an absolute garbage trader helped reinforce that view.

I've said this to you before and I'll say it again, even though it won't help until you start saying it to yourself...

You made a mistake. But, your situation isn't hopeless. You took a great risk and learned a great lesson. And now you have the ability to grow and learn and not repeat that mistake, while making better decisions in the future.

My net worth I'm sure is similar to yours and I was down 20% in my biggest account, but I'm continuing to put money into better places and lower my cost-basis in areas that I now know would be helpful. I even posted here saying I was just going to give it all to a financial advisor and everybody was like, "Nooeoeeeeoeoeoe!", so I didn't. Thankfully I didn't and thankfully I'm in a much better mood with a much better perspective. Because that's life and the light is always at the end of the tunnel.

You've clearly learned a valuable lesson. And you're not a stupid sack of shit, you just made a big mistake. Your reaction to your mistake is over 9000 when it doesn't have to be. That sounds super painful man.

Keystone · Mar 30, 2022

Moglyzoke Moogleman I'm going to guess you're not doing as poorly as you believe, and are just choosing to compare yourselves to people that by most measure have been wildly successful. The above chart is by American families, not individuals.

With that said it's really more about making the best choices going forward like people mentioned, you can't control what has happened, but you can make solid decisions from now on to put yourself in a better position 5-10 years from now. Guessing by the numbers you mentioned it's VERY likely that the largest impact you could have on that lies outside of the investing world and in a) doing what you can to increase your earning power and b) controlling your expenses within reason. The secondary focus beyond those would then be toward investing in your future in the form of 401k etc. with the understanding that it isn't going to be a straight line up but you have to be ok with that if you want to grow your wealth.

Hang in there, things can change. You just need to ensure you're approaching it with a what will this do for me in 5/10/20 years mindset if you really want to improve your life.

Tmac · Mar 30, 2022

Keystone said:
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Moglyzoke Moogleman I'm going to guess you're not doing as poorly as you believe, and are just choosing to compare yourselves to people that by most measure have been wildly successful. The above chart is by American families, not individuals.

With that said it's really more about making the best choices going forward like people mentioned, you can't control what has happened, but you can make solid decisions from now on to put yourself in a better position 5-10 years from now. Guessing by the numbers you mentioned it's VERY likely that the largest impact you could have on that lies outside of the investing world and in a) doing what you can to increase your earning power and b) controlling your expenses within reason. The secondary focus beyond those would then be toward investing in your future in the form of 401k etc. with the understanding that it isn't going to be a straight line up but you have to be ok with that if you want to grow your wealth.

Hang in there, things can change. You just need to ensure you're approaching it with a what will this do for me in 5/10/20 years mindset if you really want to improve your life.

Honestly

Moglyzoke Moogleman , I don't think your biggest mistake was losing 30% of your investment. I think your mistake was that you thought you could get rich overnight without putting in all the hard work and effort. And reality had something harsh to say about that. (I've also made this mistake!)

But now you know the path! And all you have to do is take that path every day!

TomServo · Mar 30, 2022

Tmac said:
I've said this to you before and I'll say it again, even though it won't help until you start saying it to yourself...

You made a mistake. But, your situation isn't hopeless. You took a great risk and learned a great lesson. And now you have the ability to grow and learn and not repeat that mistake, while making better decisions in the future.

My net worth I'm sure is similar to yours and I was down 20% in my biggest account, but I'm continuing to put money into better places and lower my cost-basis in areas that I now know would be helpful. I even posted here saying I was just going to give it all to a financial advisor and everybody was like, "Nooeoeeeeoeoeoe!", so I didn't. Thankfully I didn't and thankfully I'm in a much better mood with a much better perspective. Because that's life and the light is always at the end of the tunnel.

You've clearly learned a valuable lesson. And you're not a stupid sack of shit, you just made a big mistake. Your reaction to your mistake is over 9000 when it doesn't have to be. That sounds super painful man.

To tack on to ups and downs. I was pretty well off, wife and I had really good combined income. round 350 to 400k annual. Good savings etc. early 2019 lost my job due to wife almost dying and needing to take off to take care of her, and not qualifying for fmla due to lack of tenure at firm. they told me to fuck off. fast forward to early 2020 and have to take the only fucking job on the market early 2020 cause covid hits right when im ready to come back and started interviewing. accumulated 60k in credit card debt and was wiped out cash wise due to alot of shit i dont want to give details on. fast forward to today. out of debt totally liquid in 6 figures again and looking for a house. shit goes up and down, its how you react and stand tall in hard times that defines you.

Blazin · Mar 30, 2022

Moglyzoke Moogleman said:
I'm starting to think there is too large of a wealth gap between us.

I'm gonna guess your net worth is to the tune of 2 to 10 million (ballpark, all assets included.) I am solidly under 100k. My mortgage was just over 200k and basically my upper limit.

Losing 30k to you is a really bad day. Losing 30k to me undid nearly a decade of work. All that time and effort spent fed right back to the street. So sorry if I come off as bitter but I am extremely. This has fucked my life up more than you realize.

Some of my worst losses were 20 years ago when they were quite significant to my net worth. It's a very long learning process and it really isn't for everyone some people just won't have the aptitude for it and has been true all a long is consistent dollar cost averaging into a diversified index fund is the answer. I think despite the simplicity of that answer it exposes people to a level of volatility that many are just not comfortable with so they try to intervene and more often than not make things worse.

If people could just keep faith with one idea to help them it would be "the dollar will continue to be devalued in the future". If you can get comfortable with that then it should help people look past short term volatility and realize that yes markets are going to move up and the right over time, no matter what else is occurring in the world, recessions, war, social upheaval etc.

It's easy to say, the doing is much harder. We all want things faster, we want to preserve what we gain. The emotions driving these things will often lead us to the wrong choice. I think the mistake people make is going big way before they are ready for it. If, and that is a big IF, people learn the skills of navigating markets it won't matter that you missed on previous moves.

Our past trades are learning experience but have no baring on today's move. You lost big, it's okay. Today is a new day to start the ship heading on the right course.

Stay invested in broad diversified indexes
Dollar cost averaging is important, it allows you to view declines as opportunities rather than focusing on declines from highs.
Both FEAR and GREED as emotions will cause mistakes, especially FEAR. Do not make financial decisions out of Fear.

Moglyzoke Moogleman · Mar 30, 2022

Blazin · Mar 30, 2022

YIELD CURVE INVERSION! We are all going to die...

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 30, 2022

Moglyzoke Moogleman said:
I'm starting to think there is too large of a wealth gap between us.

I'm gonna guess your net worth is to the tune of 2 to 10 million (ballpark, all assets included.) I am solidly under 100k. My mortgage was just over 200k and basically my upper limit.

Losing 30k to you is a really bad day. Losing 30k to me undid nearly a decade of work. All that time and effort spent fed right back to the street. So sorry if I come off as bitter but I am extremely. This has fucked my life up more than you realize.

You would be mistaken. My net worth clocks in around 750k. Divorce is ugly that way.

As C Captain Suave said above. You need to think in percentages and not dollars. Fractional Investing and no trade fees was a Godsend to retail investors.

I am not buying 100 share blocks of AMZN or GOOGL when I buy them. I have my total portfolio $$ balance and then every position is a percentage of the total. I, in nearly every way, focus strictly on percentages when investing. I don't care about "x" dollars I have in AAPL. I care about what percentage of my portfolio is invested in AAPL.

I have shown my portfolio holdings a few times. It's 40% index fund and about 20 individual stocks. Investing is half math and half strategy. I have some advantages over some others because of my business background, but that is nothing anyone here can't learn by studying how to read and analyze corporate financial documents. The strategy part is most likely where people fail the hardest. Lots of investors don't have a strategy.

I adhere strictly to my strategy. No more than 5% in a single stock unless I choose to be overweight it. I avoid some sectors outright and only invest in about 5 total sectors. No more than 3% of my total portfolio goes to "intellegent speculation". I own one stock that falls in this category and I probably know more about that company than I do my wife at this point. And I look at it everyday with the knowledge it can go to zero tomorrow.

I won't buy more AAPL or MSFT or FTEC even though those are my core holdings because I own my cap weight. That takes discipline following my strategy and it sucks when I see them on pullbacks like we had and I know they are going to recover but won't buy more.

My investing strategy is written down like a business plan and in the same excel spreadsheet that tracks every single trade I have made since Black Monday. This includes ever option trade I made as I taught myself options. I am not smarter, wealthier or luckier than anyone else here. Just more well hung that y'all

I am generally a risk averse grinder who stays in my lane and invest in shit I know. I don't buy companies I have never heard of. MTTR being an exception and we know how that one turned out.

To be an investor you have to have emotions in check and a 3 second memory. Bad trades happen. To all of us. Fuck, the guy shorting nickel lost tens of billions. All you can hope to do is learn from your mistakes and move on.

Honestly you have some self inflicted wounds that are strictly emotion driven. When GLG popped on earnings you had a chance to trim losses and walk with something more than you had the day before. You chose to "ride it to zero" instead. Consider had you sold it a few weeks ago on the pop and invested it in the QQQ you are probably up 10% from that point. Those are the strategic decisions hurting your wealth creation.

There was a time I was close to running the Boglehead 3 fund strategy. Christ on the cross how fucked would I have been with 20% in bonds and 30% in international funds? My ass would have been large enough for a pineapple (thot thread reference

).

Tldr: welcome to the party. Pick yourself up and dust yourself off. Ain't no one gonna do it for you. Bad trades are a part of baseball. And investing. I don't do anything anyone else here can't do. Same with

Blazin ,

Jysin ,

Fogel or anyone else. I am just dead sexay when I do it

Moglyzoke Moogleman · Mar 30, 2022

Lightning Lord Rule · Mar 30, 2022

Blazin said:
YIELD CURVE INVERSION! We are all going to die...
View attachment 405881

Tmac · Mar 30, 2022

Moglyzoke Moogleman said:
Thanks bro. The sad part is I'm not sure I'm learning because I'm a stubborn sob. But I dont want to keep shitting up the thread with my personal situation. Although, again, I think it's important people see the darkside of all the tendies posts. Because statistically it's likely to happen. And if I help prevent it for a stranger online then I'm satisfied.

You don't have to parade your losses around. You already posted about it. It's not necessary for anything other than your desire to humiliate yourself.

The thing you don't seem to get is that we are ALL going to have losses. You posting about yours won't make it any less so. You're not a special case.

Zog · Mar 30, 2022

QQQ algo sell channel.

Inflation will be higher if the dollar breaks down here, DXY: 1hr

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 30, 2022

Keystone said:
View attachment 405878

Moglyzoke Moogleman I'm going to guess you're not doing as poorly as you believe, and are just choosing to compare yourselves to people that by most measure have been wildly successful. The above chart is by American families, not individuals.

With that said it's really more about making the best choices going forward like people mentioned, you can't control what has happened, but you can make solid decisions from now on to put yourself in a better position 5-10 years from now. Guessing by the numbers you mentioned it's VERY likely that the largest impact you could have on that lies outside of the investing world and in a) doing what you can to increase your earning power and b) controlling your expenses within reason. The secondary focus beyond those would then be toward investing in your future in the form of 401k etc. with the understanding that it isn't going to be a straight line up but you have to be ok with that if you want to grow your wealth.

Hang in there, things can change. You just need to ensure you're approaching it with a what will this do for me in 5/10/20 years mindset if you really want to improve your life.

Their needs to be a column for Divorced and not Divorced

Blazin · Mar 30, 2022

Traders Market Update:

I believe the first leg of this rally is now over, was about 1-2% stronger than I expected. This is another pay attention time, strength like we just saw has shifted probabilities to better than expected outcomes. That may not make sense to us, but again what we think or feel is irrelevant. We just know how humans in the past have behaved under similar circumstances helping to inform out expectations how humans may be behave in the future. Strength begets strength, there can be strong bullish rallies in a down trend, but the fact we recovered more than 50% of the decline should not be ignored. The fact we are back on top of the 200d should not be ignored.

I was concerned that HYG/JNK (which speaks to credit spreads) were not performing better, they showed a strong pop yesterday but chart still has room for improvement. So we'll keep this one in the concerning column.

First line I'll be watching is SPY 456, this rally left a lot of people behind so pullbacks may be shallow (<3%). I'd like to see a back check to a now rising 200d around ~448. Want to see vix stay muted, I doubt it stays under 20 but large spikes would be concerning.

If you missed the rally or have too much cash the chance to right that could come soon and may not be at the prices many hope for.

To the Bears, could it fall apart? Of course it could, but again we are playing probabilities we are paying attention to the weight of the evidence not just a single point of data. It doesn't take much red to get people fearful and RSI to cool off.

As mentioned previously, I have largely exited the positions I bought off the lows. My plan will likely be to begin putting risk back on based on how things trade at support. Because the decline could be shallow I won't wait too long to start nibbling. I forget what I posted here vs said to Sanrith in super secret pm's but I'm still seeing a set up that could be rather similar to 2015-2016 period, which could see us rally back to near highs like in Dec'15 just to do the entire correction all over again like Feb'16. This is not a prediction, it's a framework that helps to guide decisions. There is an argument that is more akin to 2018 and the correction will simply be over, market action is going to answer that for us. I mention to help prime the pump so that we ready to keep an open mind to a variety of outcomes.

This is such bullish action that there are not very many past periods that line up well with more bearish outcomes, my mind is open to that but I won't give it more weight than it deserves if the evidence is not pointing that way.

Chart of 2015-2016 corrective period for reference with a red circle for where we would be roughly in an analogous situation.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 30, 2022

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