Investing General Discussion

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Creslin

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Is getting owned by the reddit meme tards on a gamestop short really reversion to the mean though? I think it's more like if you were about to accept a noble prize in economics and Ronald McDonald pops out of the crowd and stabs you in the throat.. can't blame a guy for not seeing that coming.
 
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Arden

Arden

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Creslin said:
Is getting owned by the reddit meme tards on a gamestop short really reversion to the mean though? I think it's more like if you were about to accept a noble prize in economics and Ronald McDonald pops out of the crowd and stabs you in the throat.. can't blame a guy for not seeing that coming.
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Can't say I follow your analogy, but I like it
 
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Kuro

Kuro

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But economists will have to consider the possibility of future Clown Stabbings when working on their models afterward.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Looks like the 5th circuit just defanged the SEC. Elon Musk must be dancing a jig about now.

 
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nu_11

nu_11

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Sanrith Descartes said:
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from the article... the Gamestop pump worked?
Plotkin started Melvin at the end of 2014 after leaving Steve Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management, and posted returns of about 30% a year through 2020, thanks to the Fed's QE. The party rapidly ended when the Steve Cohen protege was outsmarted by a few thousands apes in January 2021; that's when a group of ragtag retail investors instituted a short squeeze (orchestrated by Senvest Partners) against Melvin’s shorts, including GameStop, pushing the hedge fund to a 55% loss.
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Tirant

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NVDA still at a 29 forward PE but starting to look pretty enticing.
What do you chart wizards think? Going to test the 135 support line?
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Tirant said:
NVDA still at a 29 forward PE but starting to look pretty enticing.
What do you chart wizards think? Going to test the 135 support line?
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Bigger picture question on NVDA: (Let me preface this by stating I lack a fair bit of crypto knowledge) Isn't there supposed to be some big move this year away from hardware mining coins? Think this is an Etherium thing? Point being, if hardware mining is about to fall off a cliff, what affect is this going to have on these GPU manufacturers? Reversion to the mean of reliance on gaming enthusiast demand? Perhaps not that extreme, but even if the truth is somewhere in between... doesn't that mean these GPU manufacturers are staring down the barrel of a significant demand drop?

Hell, even if we are just starting the next crypto winter, certainly mining interest should also wane?

TLDR: Past performance does not guarantee future results. NVDA has had a massive run on the back of crypto mining demand. How does this look 3, 6, 12+ months from now?
 
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Fogel

Fogel

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Jysin said:
Bigger picture question on NVDA: (Let me preface this by stating I lack a fair bit of crypto knowledge) Isn't there supposed to be some big move this year away from hardware mining coins? Think this is an Etherium thing? Point being, if hardware mining is about to fall off a cliff, what affect is this going to have on these GPU manufacturers? Reversion to the mean of reliance on gaming enthusiast demand? Perhaps not that extreme, but even if the truth is somewhere in between... doesn't that mean these GPU manufacturers are staring down the barrel of a significant demand drop?

Hell, even if we are just starting the next crypto winter, certainly mining interest should also wane?

TLDR: Past performance does not guarantee future results. NVDA has had a massive run on the back of crypto mining demand. How does this look 3, 6, 12+ months from now?
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I believe NVDA still has a large chunk of the commercial/professional server business similar to Intel, which makes up a good portion of their portfolio but isn't flashy or discussed much.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Thinking more on this as I was ironing my shirt...

Let's also think on the gamer side of demand. How much of that 2020/2021 run on NVDA was also fueled by stimulus checks and people being told to stay home and feed off of unemployment benefits? Upgrade cycles: lots of free money was dished out over the pandemic and surely quite a few threw some money at a PC upgrade. That was likely a hell of a lot of upgrading going on over such a short period. Are people really that fired up to go and upgrade so soon now?

I am simply thinking through the other side of the trade and asking myself "Where is the demand going to come from to push us back to theoretical highs so quickly?"
 
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Creslin

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NVDA is against at a bunch of factors and all of them are bad. Big consumer electronic purchases are one of the first things cut in a recession, so terrible for their gaming market. Crypto crashing, electricity spiking, both terrible for their 'industrial' mining market. Their professional business is also going to be under pressure as the wider tech collapse continues. Who knows but I think them hitting $80 in the next 6 months is more likely than them hitting $200+
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Thats fucking classic...

"when the Steve Cohen protege was outsmarted by a few thousands apes in January 2021"
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Nevermind the fact that its been shown the bulk of the volume in all that chaos was hedge fund driven. Hedgies killing other hedgies. But, hey.. little man ape story makes for great click bait news coverage!
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I honestly think that many need to begin the process of researching how to invest during a recession. Mindset has to really shift away from a hyper-growth mentality. Lots of factors people used to laugh at could quite possibly be the factors determining success or failure over the next X to XX months as an investor. I know I am a broken record with this but balance sheets are about to become Gold standard of investing metrics. Same with free cash flow. Honestly, this is the environment where the Buffets make their bones.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Something else I want to add. This could be the time to really evaluate your portfolio. "If" this isn't a mild downturn (6 months or so) but something that can run for a year or two, those positions you have that are red you might have to consider the possibility that it isn't something you have to wait 6 months to recover but it could be much, much longer. That then brings up the idea of opportunity cost for what is left in your investment and could you turn that into something that might actually return some alpha in a shorter timeframe. New adventures are on the horizon.
 
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