Investing General Discussion

Jysin

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I'd be all over trying to buy on a Q4 miss for long term. I don't think Apple has pre-announced earnings since 2019 though, so a lot can happen in 3 weeks time.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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I will be buying in the 80s but I still think that’s a pretty outside shot right now. I wouldn’t fault anyone for nibbling sub 120.

everyone should be rooting for some apple capitulation because it’s needed part of ending this down trend
Ton of support at $120, curious if it will hold up on a test.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Just wrote the T covered calls for $19 strike expiring in a couple of weeks (right before earnings). only 12 cent of premium but it is factoring in the 28 cent dividend I will capture next week. This is my 4th covered call in about 6 weeks of ownership.
 
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Jysin

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14:00*(US) DEC FOMC MEETING MINUTES: Most FED officials stressed need for policy flexibility; No participants anticipated rate cuts being appropriate in 2023
 
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Jysin

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Fed minutes follow-up:

- Participants were wary of unwarranted easing in financial condition, especially if driven by misperception by the public of the committees reaction function
- Several officials noted dot plot tracking notably above market
- A couple of FED officials saw inflation risks as more balanced
- Officials generally saw inflation risks as a key factor
- Officials cited risk inflation could be more persistent
- Slowing pace of rate increases shouldn't be viewed as sign of weaker resolve
- Concurred progress on inflation has been made but need to see substantially more evidence heading back to target
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Thumbs Ok GIF by MOODMAN
 
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Aldarion

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I know market prices don't fully depend on news events, and its at least partially random, but shouldnt lower natgas inventories than expected lead to rising prices rather than a sudden drop?

Is there some kind of "clever", bad is good, fed will pivot, backwards thinking going on here?
 

Blazin

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I know market prices don't fully depend on news events, and its at least partially random, but shouldnt lower natgas inventories than expected lead to rising prices rather than a sudden drop?

Is there some kind of "clever", bad is good, fed will pivot, backwards thinking going on here?
In complex markets no one thing is the only thing. Does lower than expected inventories negate very mild and warm weather across Europe . Think how easy things would be if they were as binary as you present. There is nothing to figure out, the net aggregate opinion of all market participants weighing all data on all time frames to find a price
 
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Aldarion

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While I can appreciate a good "the markets are complex" dodge as much as the next guy, I was pretty specifically asking about the sudden drop this morning when nat gas inventories were released. The weather didnt suddenly warm up at that exact moment :)

I get it, its complex, I was just wondering if anyone had read an explanation for why that particular piece of news would move it in the opposite of the generally expected direction
 

Creslin

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More than expected is a meme, more than expected by who? The shitty analysts they let publicly post their opinions. Ok. They don’t tell you what they really expect.

real answer is prolly the proprietary algos expected even worse and then it was less than expected.
 
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Jysin

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They (BBBY) are basically in talks of bankruptcy. Therefore, I fully expect WSB to pile in at some point.
 
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