Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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I didn't say total self-sufficiency couldn't be done. I wasn't even saying it couldn't be done quickly.
If you're ok with going back to the Dark Ages, you could do it overnight. The US absolutely has the capability to become a completely self-sufficient medieval country right now. All you really need is food, water, wood, stone, and iron for that. We can handle that. 99.9% of us would be living in mud huts and dying of dysentery- but we could do it.
But if you want to maintain the lifestyle and modern benefits (technological, medical, etc) we enjoy now, and be completely self-sufficient as a country, that's a way, way more difficult task that would very likely involve serious disruption and violence.
After the dust settles from all the upheaval, THEN you could start building the infrastructure we don't have now and training a whole lot of people for new jobs. Don't forget though, one of the biggest challenges is going to be convincing a large percentage of the population that it's fun to work in factories.
Anyway, it's a pointless argument- we aren't going to stop trading with other countries, short of some kind of global collapse. Even then, I promise you we'd re-establish some kind of international trade again very quickly, because that's just how humans and economics work.
All this said, I personally think we rely TOO MUCH on international trade right now. While we can't realistically be completely self-sufficient, I absolutely think the US needs to bring a few strategic industries back on our own soil, and quickly.
If you're ok with going back to the Dark Ages, you could do it overnight. The US absolutely has the capability to become a completely self-sufficient medieval country right now. All you really need is food, water, wood, stone, and iron for that. We can handle that. 99.9% of us would be living in mud huts and dying of dysentery- but we could do it.
But if you want to maintain the lifestyle and modern benefits (technological, medical, etc) we enjoy now, and be completely self-sufficient as a country, that's a way, way more difficult task that would very likely involve serious disruption and violence.
After the dust settles from all the upheaval, THEN you could start building the infrastructure we don't have now and training a whole lot of people for new jobs. Don't forget though, one of the biggest challenges is going to be convincing a large percentage of the population that it's fun to work in factories.
Anyway, it's a pointless argument- we aren't going to stop trading with other countries, short of some kind of global collapse. Even then, I promise you we'd re-establish some kind of international trade again very quickly, because that's just how humans and economics work.
All this said, I personally think we rely TOO MUCH on international trade right now. While we can't realistically be completely self-sufficient, I absolutely think the US needs to bring a few strategic industries back on our own soil, and quickly.
Synj
Dystopian Dreamer
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Sanrith Descartes
I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
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Jysin
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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BYND squeeze is something to behold.
Consider this:
We are clearing 50m shares traded on the last two 5 min candles alone. On track for 1B shares traded each day the last 2 days.
Stock is up about 600% from the lows on Friday.
Pretty impressive mechanics.
Consider this:
We are clearing 50m shares traded on the last two 5 min candles alone. On track for 1B shares traded each day the last 2 days.
Stock is up about 600% from the lows on Friday.
Pretty impressive mechanics.
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Kirun
Buzzfeed Editor
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Plot twist - They probably paused ALL hiring for positions that they were using H-1Bs for, but the tweet worded this way is better PR/damage control.
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Sanrith Descartes
I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
- 49,037
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Sanrith Descartes
I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
- 49,037
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NFLX double miss and slightly lowered guidance. That's gonna leave a mark.
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Jysin
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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Rangoth
Vyemm Raider
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I did, but because I don't have steel balls I got the smallest piece ever Never go broke taking profits and all that but I knew this was a meme short squeeze from reddit so I bought in at 1.03 for like 1.5k and then immediately sold weekly CC for about 15% so I was super happy! And I could have tripled my money /facepalm
Honestly can't say I would do it differently if I could do it over. This just has easily could have been a lost 1.5k but I do sometimes watch and join on this nonsense but never at a big risk level.
and because it is the meme that it is I have zero intention of trying to roll my way out of this because I'll just be holding 1.5k of a fake meat company no one eats or buys lol
Ohh well, I'll take my easy 250$
For all the joke some of these WSB/meme stonks are, I have had a high % win rate(though low in real world value) with a strategy like the above. It's when I think I can exit at the top that I fail. Only thing I could have done a bit differently was set a trailing sell on the CC and maybe caught a bit more upside, but I bet it still would have hit around .30/.40 cents because of the drastic swings and quick price action.
Never go broke taking profits and all that but I knew this was a meme short squeeze from reddit so I bought in at 1.03 for like 1.5k and then immediately sold weekly CC for about 15% so I was super happy! And I could have tripled my money /facepalmHonestly can't say I would do it differently if I could do it over. This just has easily could have been a lost 1.5k but I do sometimes watch and join on this nonsense but never at a big risk level.
and because it is the meme that it is I have zero intention of trying to roll my way out of this because I'll just be holding 1.5k of a fake meat company no one eats or buys lol
Ohh well, I'll take my easy 250$
For all the joke some of these WSB/meme stonks are, I have had a high % win rate(though low in real world value) with a strategy like the above. It's when I think I can exit at the top that I fail. Only thing I could have done a bit differently was set a trailing sell on the CC and maybe caught a bit more upside, but I bet it still would have hit around .30/.40 cents because of the drastic swings and quick price action.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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The inflation /debasement trade is so ubiquitous at this point that I've been trying to imagine a scenario it doesn't play out and I just can't get there in any plausible manner. However, imagination is probably lacking. EVERYONE sees the same thing "there is no way out but debasement" I hate trades when the entire world agrees on it. In this scenario maybe we can all "get rich" because it's not real we will actually be poorer. And that concept is hard at times to wrap our minds around. Its not easy to imagine being a multi millionaire and poorer then when you had far far less.
Inflation is so good for stocks, it juices EPS, its really bad for the consumer. Pumping into inflation and low unemployment is just uncharted territory, we are far enough into trump presidency to see there was no reduction in federal spending nor will there be , so we have crazy juiced fiscal impulse now being coupled with monetary support at ATHs.
Stonks should go up and go up a lot. I would have surmised this type of policy action would trigger a bond tantrum. Because there is another party this playbook is bad for, bondholders, yet the bond market is well behaved and the govt continues to have sufficient demand every auction even at lower rates.
It's the bond market that got Trump to TACO in April and since then they have wrangled that horse back into the barn. So I guess my TLDR is yeah it's a scary market when you just keep gaining 20-30% a year my only advise would be watch bonds, if behavior changes and they start to revolt find a chair and find it quick but until then party on.
...edit I'll just add there are things GOING ON like Gold rallying 40% in a year, this is value protectionism and the gold trade is the current mood and bonds may not be the current outlet for debasement angst but that angst is certainly there. It may move around for awhile. Rotate to bitcoin, rotate to real estate, back to gold, etc. The bond market of the group is the most heavily controlled by central banks, while they carry tremendous influence if the herd starts directing their fear towards bonds no CB is going to be able to stop it. And for the doom porn that is probably what it looks like, bond panic, CB action, and for the first time in our lifetimes it doesn't work.
Inflation is so good for stocks, it juices EPS, its really bad for the consumer. Pumping into inflation and low unemployment is just uncharted territory, we are far enough into trump presidency to see there was no reduction in federal spending nor will there be , so we have crazy juiced fiscal impulse now being coupled with monetary support at ATHs.
Stonks should go up and go up a lot. I would have surmised this type of policy action would trigger a bond tantrum. Because there is another party this playbook is bad for, bondholders, yet the bond market is well behaved and the govt continues to have sufficient demand every auction even at lower rates.
It's the bond market that got Trump to TACO in April and since then they have wrangled that horse back into the barn. So I guess my TLDR is yeah it's a scary market when you just keep gaining 20-30% a year my only advise would be watch bonds, if behavior changes and they start to revolt find a chair and find it quick but until then party on.
...edit I'll just add there are things GOING ON like Gold rallying 40% in a year, this is value protectionism and the gold trade is the current mood and bonds may not be the current outlet for debasement angst but that angst is certainly there. It may move around for awhile. Rotate to bitcoin, rotate to real estate, back to gold, etc. The bond market of the group is the most heavily controlled by central banks, while they carry tremendous influence if the herd starts directing their fear towards bonds no CB is going to be able to stop it. And for the doom porn that is probably what it looks like, bond panic, CB action, and for the first time in our lifetimes it doesn't work.
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Tmac
Adventurer
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So, finding a chair is what, putting all that infinity money in guns and lead and waiting out the spiral?
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Blazin
Creative Title
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I don't think it has to be that extreme, it may be scary in the moment sufficiently scary to get leader to pivot and change course. Even the slightest bit of fiscal discipline would cause a pretty strong equitity response but that doesn't mean our civilization just falls apart. The scary outcomes is that we have repeated events over years and we are losing ground, but as I've said technology is a major unknown that often finds a way to come save us from what can seem inevitable.
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Sanrith Descartes
I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
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The challenge for me personally is wrapping my head around it. Its not that I don't understand everything you are saying or doubt its veracity, its that I am so trained to value stocks a certain way that this involves a very fundamental change to that valuation methodology.
Adapt or die.
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Rangoth
Vyemm Raider
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This is the piece I have a hard time wrapping my head around as said above. I worked my whole life to hit a goal and now I'm not even sure if i am really there.
Sanrith Descartes
I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
- 49,037
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This is the piece I have a hard time wrapping my head around as said above. I worked my whole life to hit a goal and now I'm not even sure if i am really there.
Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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<asset> / Gold is probably a good place to start with valuations moving forward. China is successfully repricing collateral from Treasuries to Gold. We'll have to see how it plays out over time but for now thats what is going on IMO. I can't easily access the chart, but here is a grainy screenshot of SPX/Gold over long time frame. The world is going to rebase from US treasuries to real assets. Gold initially, IMO BTC moving forward. Gold has overtaken Treasuries as the primary foreign reserve asset. Make of that what you will. Perhaps now isn't the -best- time to buy gold, but I suspect it will outperform everything but the absolutely top performing equities over the medium-long term.
I believe US, and probably the West generally is going to go all-in on digitizing capital and assets, for better or for worse, and that means BTC moves bigly because thats going to be their chosen outlet for printed $$$ as traditional foreign treasury buying essentially completely stops. They're going to offload as much as they can in short-term paper to foreign markets via Stablecoins. Thats the plan. Bondholders always get wiped out in these moves, SPX will at best track real inflation.
Overall I feel like the mid-curve meme is appropriate here. Both left and right side will say "Buy gold and Bitcoin" everyone in the middle is going to drive themselves insane valuing the world in a rapidly depreciating currency during a monetary regime change. 2c from the left side of the curve
EDIT: Also probably not a bad idea to just buy what Trump's family is buying, and generally what this administration is saying they are going to prioritize (rare earth, copper, etc). We're living in a central command style government structure right now. No getting around it, US needs to shift back onshore and decouple with China, only way to do that is with Government printing money and directing it to the places its needed. Ride the wave
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Sanrith Descartes
I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
- 49,037
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