Investing General Discussion

Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Haus said:
Interesting analysis of the AI Capital Investment Circle Jerk...



The actual Substack article if you want to go straight to the real deal.
substack.com

The Algorithm That Detected a $610 Billion Fraud: How Machine Intelligence Exposed the AI Industry’s Circular Financing Scheme

On November 20, 2025, trading algorithms identified what may become the largest accounting fraud in technology history—not in months or years, but in 18 hours.
substack.com substack.com
Click to expand...

Pretty sure someone called this in this thread or in the General forums yesterday.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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NVDA continuing the bleed here after hours. Given up the 100D MA as well.

1763675129811.png
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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As if today wasn't busy enough, Japan commentary hitting the wires about a Yen intervention.

In Asia, Japan may be closer to intervening in the currency market than many investors assume.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus policies might deter the Bank of Japan from hiking its benchmark rate in the near term at a time when bets on a Fed cut have receded. Takaichi is set to unveil a stimulus package that will include ¥17.7 trillion ($112 billion) of spending, according to documents seen by Bloomberg Thursday.

Grok's analysis if they intervene:

1763681010887.png
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

Vyemm Raider
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I finally exited 3 different sets of puts, and while I still think it will crawl down to ~=150$ I don't have the conviction to play it with my cash.

I bought 3 different sets of puts, each making more than 20% in a matter of about 2 weeks. If I had just held the original(until today), I would have made like 600% or some shit :( blah blah never go broke taking a profit, but I guess I'll also never have the luxury of posting on reddit that I turned 500$ into millions or whatever ;)

Like everyone else I am kind of sitting on money with a plan to come back in on general market, BTC(IBIT), and other "big" names from the top of each sector. I'm not as good at picking price targets like everyone else so I tend to watch charts and when it approaches a level I like I just set a trailing buy and look away. This gives me a 100% fill chance even if it's not at the perfect price. It can backfire during spikes but that's not really a big deal on something I want to own for 6+ months anyway.

EDIT:

Also things seem to be recovering in the after hours, not sure if that is preparatory for a rally tomorrow and into black friday/thanksgiving or not though.
 
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Arden

Arden

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Haus said:
We're already seeing Trump prep for a Stimmy cycle cloaking it as a "Tariff Refund". Question being what excuse they will use to pump money after that, as I don't know of any other real levers they can pull. QE Forever? Big interest drop? That would require a Fed that didn't want to aggressively anger fuck Trump.

As I believe has been mentioned, lowering interest rates screws consumers by putting a fire back under inflation. Most of the Feds tricks help business and the markets but don't directly help consumers. Are they willing to sacrifice the Non-asset owners to keep asset markets high knowing they can always say "If the stock market is up then the economy is good, end of story"?
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If it makes you feel better, it's not just the US. It's a global problem. I'll spare everyone the nothingstopsthistrain.jpeg, but here you have it.

Screenshot 2025-11-20 192708 - Copy.png
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
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Opened a new long position in MSFT. I know I am a bit early, the 200 DMA is 467 and I am in at 472. The stock usually pulls up just above the 200. Not a big position, 1/4 in size.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
<Gold Donor>
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The equal weight S&P 500 (RSP) has already blown through the 100DMA and is closing in on the 200DMA

1763738451842.png
 
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Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Feels like we're on our way to a bloodbath to end the year.

Usually I'd say the fact that everyone is pessimistic about the market and feel like we're heading for a cliff would mean we've still got time and the market actually isn't inflated as much as it feels, but in this case the market has just become detached from reality to an extent I've never seen.
 
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