Investing General Discussion

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Prices aren’t supposed to go up. Your entire frame of reference is warped, as is everyone’s.
Hard to consider accepting reality for what it is as a warped perspective.

Im against owning gold, mostly because any situation I see that paying off id rather own bullets and guns, the truest form of money.
 

Blazin

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Gold has never gone up, it's still just Au. Just more fun than saying the dollar went down...again. That is what unproductive assets are for, to keep being the thing they are, while the dollar does what it does best being a two bit whore.
 
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Blazin

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Was thinking the other day about some comments and wanted to offer a different perspective. We don't even need to beat inflation to be better off. Not when your NW is beyond your annual need. My NW doesn't need to outpace the dollars loss. I don't spend my NW so it's buying power is of interest to me at a smaller scale. If I spend $50k a year to support my lifestyle and inflation is 5% then I need to gain $2500 more to maintain my position , I don't need 5% on my NW to retain my position.

The point of this is that living below your means is a far bigger factor in being better off than your investment returns. A person could become better and better off for decades and not once out perform the S&P or inflation, then you want to tell that person, "Yeah but adjusted for inflation you're worse off!" But the actual lived experience might be, "guy I have enough money to live my current standard of living for the next 80 years."

I believe it's important to circle back to that every once in awhile, as chasing performance can be exhausting and we have much more control over lifestyle choices than we do chasing top gains. I'm sometimes mad at myself, should have made more etc. Returned 8% of NW damn that should have been 15% had I just done this and this, meanwhile that gain alone is more than I spend in years. Sometimes the real life application of all this matters.
 
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Kirun

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"Gold is money, everything else is credit" sounds profound, but it only holds if you assume gold has some special, near-mystical property that makes it the one true measuring stick across all eras, technologies, and institutional setups. And that assumption is… weird. Gold isn't magic. It's a scarce commodity that worked as monetary collateral under very specific historical constraints of slow communication, physical settlement, limited state capacity, and localized trade. Those constraints don't exist anymore.

Using gold as the benchmark to declare that stocks "lost money" over 25 years is basically saying - if an asset doesn't outperform my preferred monetary relic, it didn't create value. That's not an objective truth, that's a choice of numeraire. You could just as easily say stocks massively outperformed wheat, copper, or labor hours. Why is gold the one sacred reference point? It's like a bunch of people read The Creature from Jekyll Island, decided they'd seen through the matrix, and now treat gold as some kind of secular religion. I don't get it.
 
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Tirant

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Point taken, but the reason to use gold as the reference point vs the other commodities you listed, is that gold has a history of being money. The others do not, to a remotely close degree (I know I know, copper pennies). Does that continue? I don't know, but central bank buying and gold being a Tier I HQLA under Basel III sure makes it look like it will. You have to pick SOMETHING to have as a reference point. As Blazin said the dollar is a two bit whore, so why not gold? Certainly has it's own dynamics that can be manipulated but comparing returns priced in dollars vs returns priced in gold is illustrative, at least to me.

For the record, copper also beat stocks over the last 25 years, but not by a lot.
 

Borzak

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AI and the companies I work with keep machinery going for many decades. Some have been upgraded over the years with new controls. Some computer/CNC and some still on tapes and punch cards from the 60'. Of course a lot of stuff is made in China or Korea due to machinery. One shop uses a vertical lathe for making repads for manways into vessels and such. It came from the Beaumont, TX area where it was used to make driveshaft fittings on destroyers in WWII. Even light machinery now comes from Turkey or of all places Canada in their partner with Lincon Electric.

I'm sure if we had machines that could run all day doing the same thing over and over the market would be there, but it's not. Everything is a one of a kind.

Serious not just looking at Silver prices is crazy. A month ago spot was in the $50/troy ounce range. It's just under $70 now.
 
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Why is gold the one sacred reference point? It's like a bunch of people read The Creature from Jekyll Island, decided they'd seen through the matrix, and now treat gold as some kind of secular religion. I don't get it.
Because you can't print gold, or grow it

Serious not just looking at Silver prices is crazy. A month ago spot was in the $50/troy ounce range. It's just under $70 now.

My god.. I had about $5k of silver I bought back in 2020 at $33 an ounce, think I sold it just around there a year or two ago to break even. What a crazy move up..




I think the consensus regarding gold/silver appreciation is that foreign central banks are the majority of purchases recently as they are trying to hedge against inflation, correct? It's not tied to the dollar losing value otherwise the prices would likely be much higher now (I think)
 
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Agraza

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i always thought the gold thing was a scam. the weirdest dudes were always pimping it here on late night cable or AM radio. recently when i traveled in southeast asia i kept seeing gold shops. like everywhere. people take their paychecks, buy groceries, and then buy as many grams of gold they can afford. their economies are all a bit unstable, but it was silly. you'd see lines on days when people got paid. vietnam, indonesia, thailand.

people just take it home and try to keep it in the family. made me think.
 
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Borzak

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Because you can't print gold, or grow it



My god.. I had about $5k of silver I bought back in 2020 at $33 an ounce, think I sold it just around there a year or two ago to break even. What a crazy move up..




I think the consensus regarding gold/silver appreciation is that foreign central banks are the majority of purchases recently as they are trying to hedge against inflation, correct? It's not tied to the dollar losing value otherwise the prices would likely be much higher now (I think)

I've seen it in several places that silver is being used in production of "stuff" at a greater pace than is being mined for the last few years. Mexico mines the most silver, so I blame them lol. I don't know about central banks. Probably a combination going on.


The global silver market is on track for a 117.7 million ounce (Moz) deficit this year, according to data from the World Silver Survey 2025, visualized in our latest infographic.

Global silver mines are projected to yield 835 Moz in 2025. This output signifies a 7.23% decrease compared to 2016 levels, based on World Silver Survey 2025 data.
 
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Kirun

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Point taken, but the reason to use gold as the reference point vs the other commodities you listed, is that gold has a history of being money. The others do not, to a remotely close degree (I know I know, copper pennies). Does that continue? I don't know, but central bank buying and gold being a Tier I HQLA under Basel III sure makes it look like it will. You have to pick SOMETHING to have as a reference point. As Blazin said the dollar is a two bit whore, so why not gold? Certainly has it's own dynamics that can be manipulated but comparing returns priced in dollars vs returns priced in gold is illustrative, at least to me.

For the record, copper also beat stocks over the last 25 years, but not by a lot.
Gold isn't special because it reveals some hidden, objective truth about value. It's special because we collectively decided, over long stretches of history, to treat it that way under very specific technological and institutional constraints. Scarcity, durability, divisibility - all those mattered then. That doesn't mean gold is eternally entitled to be the measuring stick for all value across all future systems. Treating it like that starts to look less like analysis and more like tradition-worship.

When people say "stocks lost money priced in gold," what they're really saying is "stocks underperformed one specific asset with its own supply/demand dynamics, central bank behavior, and speculative cycles." That's not the same thing as proving value destruction. Gold can outperform equities for long stretches without equities somehow being a fraud or CPI being a total lie. Relative performance != universal truth.

The part that smacks of dogma to me is that gold gets treated as if it's outside the system (some mythical neutral yardstick) when in reality it's deeply embedded in it. Central banks buy gold as a policy choice. Its price is influenced by real rates, dollar strength, geopolitics, reserve management, and investor psychology. That's not "pure money," that's just another asset with privileged historical branding.

That's why a lot of this framing feels very, "I listened to a podcast about Creature from Jekyll Island one time.” Like once you've internalized "gold is money, everything else is credit," you feel like you've unlocked a hidden layer of reality the normies can't see anymore. But repeating that mantra doesn't automatically make gold the one true lens through which all economic outcomes must be judged.

You're right that you have to pick something as a reference point but that choice is subjective, not ordained. Gold isn't the only commodity that preserved purchasing power, and it's not the only thing that can. Copper beating stocks over 25 years kind of undercuts the idea that monetary history alone makes gold uniquely qualified as the truth-revealer.
Because you can't print gold, or grow it
You also can't print Manhattan real estate, vintage art, rare wine, beachfront property, or prime farmland - yet all of those are absolutely subject to boom/bust cycles, manipulation, financialization, and long periods of underperformance. Scarcity alone has never guaranteed monetary supremacy or stable value.

Gold isn't immune either. Its supply does grow. Mining output increases with price incentives, new extraction tech, and discoveries. It's slower than fiat, sure, but it's not fixed. More importantly, gold's price has been heavily influenced by futures markets, central bank policy, leasing, rehypothecation, and paper claims that vastly exceed physical supply. "Can't print it" didn't stop that at all.
 
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Hypothetically speaking:

If in the near future hyperinflation happens.. and let's say it takes $800 to buy a loaf of bread for example.

If you are invested in the stock market, the dollar will adjust to reflect the intrinsic value of the underlying asset, correct? So as long as you aren't sitting on cash, or if you are, you still have significant INVESTED assets in the stock market.. hyperinflation won't erode your wealth, correct?
 
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Arden

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Hypothetically speaking:

If in the near future hyperinflation happens.. and let's say it takes $800 to buy a loaf of bread for example.

If you are invested in the stock market, the dollar will adjust to reflect the intrinsic value of the underlying asset, correct? So as long as you aren't sitting on cash, or if you are, you still have significant INVESTED assets in the stock market.. hyperinflation won't erode your wealth, correct?

Depends. Being invested is better than sitting in cash, but stocks in general = wealth protected is false. Hyperinflation rewards ownership of scarce, real, globally priced assets, not just any ticker symbol.
 
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Tmac

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Hypothetically speaking:

If in the near future hyperinflation happens.. and let's say it takes $800 to buy a loaf of bread for example.

If you are invested in the stock market, the dollar will adjust to reflect the intrinsic value of the underlying asset, correct? So as long as you aren't sitting on cash, or if you are, you still have significant INVESTED assets in the stock market.. hyperinflation won't erode your wealth, correct?

If you pull money out to buy $800 bread you’re still paying 15%-25% in capital gains. So either way, you’re getting wrecked.
 
If you pull money out to buy $800 bread you’re still paying 15%-25% in capital gains. So either way, you’re getting wrecked.

If a loaf of bread now costs $4 then an $800 load of bread costs 200x what it does today. A similar multiplier for $100k worth of SPY today as compared to hyperinflation price means your $100k of SPY would be worth $20 million. So would that $800 really matter out of $20 million?

From what I recall reading about Weimar, these numbers aren't out of the ordinary, as a matter of fact they are conservative. There were trillion dollar notes being thrown around at some point, unless I've mistaken Weimar for Zimbabwe
 
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Gravel

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If a loaf of bread now costs $4 then an $800 load of bread costs 200x what it does today. A similar multiplier for $100k worth of SPY today as compared to hyperinflation price means your $100k of SPY would be worth $20 million. So would that $800 really matter out of $20 million?

From what I recall reading about Weimar, these numbers aren't out of the ordinary, as a matter of fact they are conservative. There were trillion dollar notes being thrown around at some point, unless I've mistaken Weimar for Zimbabwe
His point is that Congress (or the IRS?) would have to adjust the capital gains brackets incredibly frequently to adjust for hyperinflation. Otherwise you're paying current rates in pulling out millions in equities to pay for your bread. And I don't know about you, but I don't see a situation where the government is proactive in adjusting anything.

The government would be taking a 20% whack on long term gains versus the 0% most of us would be paying now. Or worse, short term rate which is essentially earned income and now suddenly you're paying the top end of the tax brackets.