Fair point, I did pull the 20% out of a hat so to speak. I was more just expressing that we are crossing some fairly significant boundaries. Looking at the 5Y chart there was only 1-2 time that we dropped below the 200DMA and didnt linger there longer than a month.
Once we sorta touched it and bounced, another time we spiked down hard and within a month or so recovered, the rest seem to be extended stays. I'm mostly curious as to how long we linger below or fail to overcome. The longer that happens the stronger the chance for a more steady downward trend. I think the last drop below it was April 2025 where it basically nose-dived hard for what, 2 weeks(ish) and then proceeded to race to all time highs.
I'm not trying to be doom and gloom or perma-bear, just proceeding with caution at the moment.
