Investing General Discussion

Borzak

Borzak

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Even the energy sector is down. Being dragged down by drilling and production along with equipment.
 
Jackie Treehorn

Jackie Treehorn

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I’m obsessed with watching meme-stock bros fail. This is hilarious.

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Khane

Khane

Got something right about marriage
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An AMC reference in 2026.

Should we make him change his forum name from a Big Lebowski reference to an Austin Powers reference?
 
M Power

M Power

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Rangoth said:
Fair point, I did pull the 20% out of a hat so to speak. I was more just expressing that we are crossing some fairly significant boundaries. Looking at the 5Y chart there was only 1-2 time that we dropped below the 200DMA and didnt linger there longer than a month.

Once we sorta touched it and bounced, another time we spiked down hard and within a month or so recovered, the rest seem to be extended stays. I'm mostly curious as to how long we linger below or fail to overcome. The longer that happens the stronger the chance for a more steady downward trend. I think the last drop below it was April 2025 where it basically nose-dived hard for what, 2 weeks(ish) and then proceeded to race to all time highs.

I'm not trying to be doom and gloom or perma-bear, just proceeding with caution at the moment.
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My personal opinion is Trump caves and gets out of Middle East in the next two weeks so the Strait opens back up and he can focus on midterms which aren't looking too good. The economy and oil was literally all he talks about before this and both are shit now.
 
nu_11

nu_11

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Bought about $20K worth of extended duration bonds. Here's to hoping that the 30-year treasury yields have peaked for now.
 
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M Power

M Power

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Rangoth

Rangoth

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To put in perspective, we did not leap above 200DMA. I still believe there are some important tests/levels over the next 2 weeks
 
M Power

M Power

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$580M in trades placed minutes before Trump's Iran post sparks insider trading fears​

Roughly $580 million in oil futures and $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures traded hands in a sudden, isolated burst around 6:50 a.m. New York time on Monday — approximately 15 minutes before President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had engaged in "productive conversations" and that he was postponing planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. The timing has ignited calls for regulatory scrutiny and reignited concerns about potential insider trading tied to national security decisions.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf calling Trump's claims "fake news" aimed at manipulating "the financial and oil markets".

Suspicion extended beyond traditional markets. On the prediction platform Polymarket, at least ten recently created accounts had placed bets totaling roughly $160,000 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before the end of March — wagers that could yield over $1 million if correct.
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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M Power said:

$580M in trades placed minutes before Trump's Iran post sparks insider trading fears​

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someone always knows lol

saw a great quote in a movie once, can’t recall which it was, where some rich elite dudes were talking and he basically said, I’m not immune from what’s happening but I get advance notice.

anyway, 4 days below the 200 DMA and I think the 50 is crossing below the 100…of course it seems one tweet can reverse that these days, but the 100DMA also just started an inverse slop(down not up)
 
Rod-138

Rod-138

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I doubled down on stupid and grabbed some MSFT yesterday along with some mid crappy AI adjacent companies. Basically, the companies with contracts for parts to the big boys are not typically as inflated as the large cap and better known companies, but with rates theoretically dropping over the next 2 years, they should do well.

Companies like fix, mrvl, iren, etc. figured if I splash 5k in all of them I could make myself a little mid cap fund.
 
Cad

Sheriff Cad

scientia potentia est
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Oil is still at $99, the market is making back some of the losses (still about 3.3% down on the year) but do we think the market is just going to follow oil price/iran news for now or do we think oil has to come down first?
 
D

dragonbr

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Cad said:
Oil is still at $99, the market is making back some of the losses (still about 3.3% down on the year) but do we think the market is just going to follow oil price/iran news for now or do we think oil has to come down first?
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I personally don't even understand the market's bounce back in general but it's sort of been an unstoppable train for a while. It just feels like extreme over eagerness and optimism that world affairs have leveled out.

Also, not sure if I see oil coming down a substantial amount for a bit. Even if the US packed up and claimed victory, I don't know if Iran has any plans of enabling traffic flow of the strait back to the pre February status quo.
 
Borzak

Borzak

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If you are up early enough the last week or so futures have been up and Trump would release something on his social site at 4am and then it would pull back some, until this week it stayed up.

Seems a lot of investors are buying into the hype that the war is going away soon. If the strait opened up 100% today it would take some time for that oil to reach anywhere that needs it, so basically no idea. That doesn't include the political angle of who is in charge and what is their plan, if they have a plan over there. So double "I don't have any idea". I look every day at the subsectors in energy, it's a roller coaster. One day exploration and production is up then the next down. Same for midstream (pipelines), and for refining. Up and down. Integrated (Big oil) has been up until today, down 4% or more.
 
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M Power

M Power

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Borzak said:
Nike down 10% in futures. Said the Iran war is hitting them on Chinese and Europe sales.
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Nike is lying. Nike has been down way before the Iran war. China doesn't give a shit about Nike anymore. Neither does the U.S. consumer. It's a brand in the dumps.

The reason people think the Iran shit is coming to an end is daddy China is telling Iran quit the shit and make a deal.
 
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