Investing General Discussion

Cad

Sheriff Cad

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Kithani said:
I keep reminding myself that I left a lot of gold/plat in the bank with every MMO I ever quit… can’t take it with you
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You're totally right, but you don't get to be good with money by not worrying about it, and it's a very hard switch to turn off. I'm thinking that as the years go by when it isn't a concern at all, the worry will lessen.
 
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Furry

Furry

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I exited the market about an hour ago. Am I retarded paperhands, did I time the market? No idea. I was planning to weather it, but decided to roll the dice. I'm comically far ahead on retirement, so I'm doing it more to ensure my position stays very strong rather than any prediction on where the market goes.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Do you need the money in the next 6 months? Do you expect the market to be higher in the next year or two?

If no to the first, and yes to the second, why would you exit the market? Do you know something that everyone else doesn't? Otherwise you're gambling on maybe a few percentage point increase over a period that's likely to be 30+ years where you'd expect to be up hundreds of percent.

Trying to time the market using your retirement accounts is foolish.
 
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Borzak

Borzak

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I have always been extremely long on most of my stuff in the market. I have known a couple of people that just divested of most of their stuff and later got back in. Seemed like a big toll to play to try and time it right. I have a little that I take in and out and more "go with the flow' but it's a small part. Again I'm not investing smart.

Scary part is I had a similar discussion with someone recently that 100% of their holdings in the market were in one stock, the company they work for. Same age as me, 55. I make money from time to time on mineral rights, but have only a very small amount of oil/gas stocks outside of a S&P index fund. Same company as the one you work for seems like double super exposure.
 
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Seananigans

Seananigans

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Gravel said:
Do you need the money in the next 6 months? Do you expect the market to be higher in the next year or two?

If no to the first, and yes to the second, why would you exit the market? Do you know something that everyone else doesn't? Otherwise you're gambling on maybe a few percentage point increase over a period that's likely to be 30+ years where you'd expect to be up hundreds of percent.

Trying to time the market using your retirement accounts is foolish.
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I dunno, I made a shit ton of extra in 2020. It’s a rare and unusual occurrence though, wouldn’t aim to do it with any regularity.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Man, these markets really want to rip to new highs. We V bounced on these talks,, walked away from said talks, now started a blockade on Iran while threatening new military strikes and… markets just close the gap and are flat on the day.

The US is fairly isolated from energy shocks, but Europe and Asia are about to get fucked with 0 supply if this keeps up. I can’t help but feel there is a sizable downside risk being ignored. Perhaps the BTFD mentality of the last 6 years will finally get burned?

The next few weeks will be interesting.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Yeah, it's pretty strange. But then I have to remind myself that the market still averages 10% a year, even with world wars and depressions. Yeah, usually that's because they bounce back *after* those events, but I think I still underestimate just how much momentum the market carries to new highs constantly.
 
Cad

Sheriff Cad

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I just crossed positive for the year I'm sure like a lot of you who bought the indexes.

I agree it is weird, like what kind of bad news would actually tank the market if oil shocks and war in the ME doesn't?

Would we be up 15% YTD if there was no war?
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Anyone else been watching the CAR squeeze unfold? Wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of this train.

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B_Mizzle

B_Mizzle

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Cad said:
I just crossed positive for the year I'm sure like a lot of you who bought the indexes.

I agree it is weird, like what kind of bad news would actually tank the market if oil shocks and war in the ME doesn't?

Would we be up 15% YTD if there was no war?
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It seems to me there is some unwinding going on of the crazy valuations. Nvidia has been 160 to 200 for almost a year, and I watch that one every day, not sure about the rest of big tech, but nvidia blew out earnings and is still trading sideways.
 
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Haus

Haus

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Cad said:
I just crossed positive for the year I'm sure like a lot of you who bought the indexes.

I agree it is weird, like what kind of bad news would actually tank the market if oil shocks and war in the ME doesn't?

Would we be up 15% YTD if there was no war?
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What kind of news? Sounds like a job for my WCSG (Worst Case Scenario Gland) : China sees Us involvement in the ME as overextending the US defensive umbrella and makes a move on Taiwan. Taiwan then does as they have threatened and blow the fabs rather than hand them back to China. Subsequently all the big AI houses state that with that kind of drop in chip production they won't be able to make earnings/revenue targets. AI bubble subsequently pops.

I don't know about 15% up with no war, but definitely further up than we are right now.
 
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