Investing General Discussion

Cad

Sheriff Cad

scientia potentia est
<Nazi Janitors>
32,932
78,777
Kithani said:
I keep reminding myself that I left a lot of gold/plat in the bank with every MMO I ever quit… can’t take it with you
Click to expand...
You're totally right, but you don't get to be good with money by not worrying about it, and it's a very hard switch to turn off. I'm thinking that as the years go by when it isn't a concern at all, the worry will lessen.
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
Furry

Furry

Email Loading Please Wait
<Gold Donor>
28,211
42,025
I exited the market about an hour ago. Am I retarded paperhands, did I time the market? No idea. I was planning to weather it, but decided to roll the dice. I'm comically far ahead on retirement, so I'm doing it more to ensure my position stays very strong rather than any prediction on where the market goes.
 
  • 2Paper Hands
Reactions: 1 users
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
46,924
169,668
Do you need the money in the next 6 months? Do you expect the market to be higher in the next year or two?

If no to the first, and yes to the second, why would you exit the market? Do you know something that everyone else doesn't? Otherwise you're gambling on maybe a few percentage point increase over a period that's likely to be 30+ years where you'd expect to be up hundreds of percent.

Trying to time the market using your retirement accounts is foolish.
 
  • 1Solidarity
Reactions: 1 user
Borzak

Borzak

<Bronze Donator>
28,645
38,682
I have always been extremely long on most of my stuff in the market. I have known a couple of people that just divested of most of their stuff and later got back in. Seemed like a big toll to play to try and time it right. I have a little that I take in and out and more "go with the flow' but it's a small part. Again I'm not investing smart.

Scary part is I had a similar discussion with someone recently that 100% of their holdings in the market were in one stock, the company they work for. Same age as me, 55. I make money from time to time on mineral rights, but have only a very small amount of oil/gas stocks outside of a S&P index fund. Same company as the one you work for seems like double super exposure.
 
Last edited:
Seananigans

Seananigans

Honorary Shit-PhD
<Gold Donor>
15,740
40,005
Gravel said:
Do you need the money in the next 6 months? Do you expect the market to be higher in the next year or two?

If no to the first, and yes to the second, why would you exit the market? Do you know something that everyone else doesn't? Otherwise you're gambling on maybe a few percentage point increase over a period that's likely to be 30+ years where you'd expect to be up hundreds of percent.

Trying to time the market using your retirement accounts is foolish.
Click to expand...

I dunno, I made a shit ton of extra in 2020. It’s a rare and unusual occurrence though, wouldn’t aim to do it with any regularity.
 
Jysin

Jysin

Bronze Baronet of the Realm
7,191
5,726
Man, these markets really want to rip to new highs. We V bounced on these talks,, walked away from said talks, now started a blockade on Iran while threatening new military strikes and… markets just close the gap and are flat on the day.

The US is fairly isolated from energy shocks, but Europe and Asia are about to get fucked with 0 supply if this keeps up. I can’t help but feel there is a sizable downside risk being ignored. Perhaps the BTFD mentality of the last 6 years will finally get burned?

The next few weeks will be interesting.
 
  • 6Like
Reactions: 5 users
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
46,924
169,668
Yeah, it's pretty strange. But then I have to remind myself that the market still averages 10% a year, even with world wars and depressions. Yeah, usually that's because they bounce back *after* those events, but I think I still underestimate just how much momentum the market carries to new highs constantly.
 
Cad

Sheriff Cad

scientia potentia est
<Nazi Janitors>
32,932
78,777
I just crossed positive for the year I'm sure like a lot of you who bought the indexes.

I agree it is weird, like what kind of bad news would actually tank the market if oil shocks and war in the ME doesn't?

Would we be up 15% YTD if there was no war?
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
Jysin

Jysin

Bronze Baronet of the Realm
7,191
5,726
Anyone else been watching the CAR squeeze unfold? Wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of this train.

1776107062869.png
 
  • 1To the Moon!
  • 1Mother of God
Reactions: 1 users
B_Mizzle

B_Mizzle

Naxxramas 1.0 Raider
9,161
19,792
Cad said:
I just crossed positive for the year I'm sure like a lot of you who bought the indexes.

I agree it is weird, like what kind of bad news would actually tank the market if oil shocks and war in the ME doesn't?

Would we be up 15% YTD if there was no war?
Click to expand...

It seems to me there is some unwinding going on of the crazy valuations. Nvidia has been 160 to 200 for almost a year, and I watch that one every day, not sure about the rest of big tech, but nvidia blew out earnings and is still trading sideways.
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
Haus

Haus

I am Big Balls!
<Gold Donor>
19,569
80,026
Cad said:
I just crossed positive for the year I'm sure like a lot of you who bought the indexes.

I agree it is weird, like what kind of bad news would actually tank the market if oil shocks and war in the ME doesn't?

Would we be up 15% YTD if there was no war?
Click to expand...
What kind of news? Sounds like a job for my WCSG (Worst Case Scenario Gland) : China sees Us involvement in the ME as overextending the US defensive umbrella and makes a move on Taiwan. Taiwan then does as they have threatened and blow the fabs rather than hand them back to China. Subsequently all the big AI houses state that with that kind of drop in chip production they won't be able to make earnings/revenue targets. AI bubble subsequently pops.

I don't know about 15% up with no war, but definitely further up than we are right now.
 
  • 1Mother of God
Reactions: 1 user
Jysin

Jysin

Bronze Baronet of the Realm
7,191
5,726
I still dont think markets are appropriately pricing the oil shock that is unavoidable at this point. I have a friend in Oil & Gas who is a senior geologist with decades of experience. The way he put it, even if the entire war was resolved today with guarantees of free traffic through the straight, there are massive problems in the extraction. In simplified terms, he says it is not like a water faucet in that you can't just turn it on and off. These need to be brought up slowly which can take months. On top of this is the damaged facilities. Now we add the fact that the Straight is still effectively closed, reserves for Europe, Asia, and Africa are all but certain to go dry. There is a ton of traffic "stuck" in the Persian Gulf that can't even attempt to go fill up elsewhere.

Oil prices are still elevated around $100 per barrel, yet stock markets are trying to hit ATHs again. Oil & Gas (energy) is tied to the manufacture & delivery of nearly everything on earth.

From Bloomberg's Evening Briefing:
... But one thing does seem more likely than not: as far as energy prices are concerned, the worst is yet to come.

This according to the International Energy Agency, which warned oil prices don’t yet reflect the severity of the unprecedented supply crisis. About 13 million barrels a day of oil supply have been shuttered by the war, with more than 80 energy facilities damaged, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
The Paris-based agency has already described the current supply disruption as the biggest in history, saying a recovery could take as long as two years. “Prices are already high, but they are not reflecting the severity of the problem,” Birol said. “I think soon we will see they will converge, which is an extremely sensitive issue for the global economy.”
Click to expand...

 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
Borzak

Borzak

<Bronze Donator>
28,645
38,682
B_Mizzle said:
It seems to me there is some unwinding going on of the crazy valuations. Nvidia has been 160 to 200 for almost a year, and I watch that one every day, not sure about the rest of big tech, but nvidia blew out earnings and is still trading sideways.
Click to expand...

I think at least some are in the show me the money further down the line from the AI stuff they are developing and selling. Maybe, not my thing.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Tmac

Tmac

Adventurer
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
10,864
19,393
Jysin said:
I still dont think markets are appropriately pricing the oil shock that is unavoidable at this point. I have a friend in Oil & Gas who is a senior geologist with decades of experience. The way he put it, even if the entire war was resolved today with guarantees of free traffic through the straight, there are massive problems in the extraction. In simplified terms, he says it is not like a water faucet in that you can't just turn it on and off. These need to be brought up slowly which can take months. On top of this is the damaged facilities. Now we add the fact that the Straight is still effectively closed, reserves for Europe, Asia, and Africa are all but certain to go dry. There is a ton of traffic "stuck" in the Persian Gulf that can't even attempt to go fill up elsewhere.

Oil prices are still elevated around $100 per barrel, yet stock markets are trying to hit ATHs again. Oil & Gas (energy) is tied to the manufacture & delivery of nearly everything on earth.

From Bloomberg's Evening Briefing:


Click to expand...

Anyone grabbing a starter size into XLE?
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
You must log in or register to reply here.