Investing General Discussion

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Hateyou

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Buying some CI today, it’s down to $171. It’s pretty reliable to pop back up to $200-$210 pretty quickly, I’ve sold it at $215 a couple times in the past year. Bounces up and down between $170-$200 constantly.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Banks are moving upwards with earnings next week. Either people are gambling or they know something we dont.
 

Furry

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For those who are looking at airline stocks. I'd remain cautious about picking AAL. Business is still way down, and pretty much everyone is expecting early retirement and or furloughs to get dropped in the coming months. Lots of rumors flying around, but the only hard truth is business is still below 1/3 capacity during the busiest part of year. It aint pretty from the inside, and I can't imagine there isn't some ugly news coming.
 

kegkilla

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For those who are looking at airline stocks. I'd remain cautious about picking AAL. Business is still way down, and pretty much everyone is expecting early retirement and or furloughs to get dropped in the coming months. Lots of rumors flying around, but the only hard truth is business is still below 1/3 capacity during the busiest part of year. It aint pretty from the inside, and I can't imagine there isn't some ugly news coming.
How is that any different than the situation at DAL and UAL?
 

Locnar

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Yep. They are extremely selective about where they go and who is allowed to run it. Their marketing and research team is top notch. I think it takes a couple years of going through their processes before one opens, a friend of a friend looked into it and backed out due to the time commitment she would have to put in just to even be considered, with a good chance of being denied.

That whole process is why every chik fil a you go to is top notch quality and service, they won’t let just any loser open one up and run it.

Compare that to Pollo Tropical, that I see horrible service from and are constantly closing due to no clue what they are doing and/or health department. Oh, and the demographic inside them running the show is polar opposite from what you see in the Chickfla. Very interesting stuff.
 

Furry

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How is that any different than the situation at DAL and UAL?

I'd be guessing if I said anything. I'd assume they're in a similar boat, but I don't have first hand info on them. If it matters, I don't think AAL will die as a company, but they definitely have a very rough road ahead of them, and I see it getting worse before better. Airlines with a better financial situation to start (DAL) will probably come out of this winners in comparison.
 
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Locnar

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For those who are looking at airline stocks. I'd remain cautious about picking AAL. Business is still way down, and pretty much everyone is expecting early retirement and or furloughs to get dropped in the coming months. Lots of rumors flying around, but the only hard truth is business is still below 1/3 capacity during the busiest part of year. It aint pretty from the inside, and I can't imagine there isn't some ugly news coming.

Meanwhile Southwest and jetBlue won't be furloughing at all and jetBlue just announced a total move from Long Beach (that dumpster fire of a nimby airport) to LAX where they must of gotten more gates and promise to expand to 70 flights a day in the coming years. They have also moved in on EWR expanding service.

I said in the beginning, the domestic carriers are really taking advantage of this covid shit to gain marketshare while the international carriers are reeling. United sent out furlough warnings to thousands.
 

Furry

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I said in the beginning, the domestic carriers are really taking advantage of this covid shit to gain marketshare while the international carriers are reeling. United sent out furlough warnings to thousands.

International pilots/crew tend to have a lot of seniority and make a lot of money compared to domestic pilots. Having them sitting around and soaking up money is probably a major disadvantage. Even if a big international airline like AAL furloughs people they'll just have 100k+/year pilots going block or better as they zig zag all over the sky and sponge up fuel on domestic routes while the cheap domestic carriers have their 35k/yr junior pilots just looking for hours.
 

Locnar

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International pilots/crew tend to have a lot of seniority and make a lot of money compared to domestic pilots. Having them sitting around and soaking up money is probably a major disadvantage. Even if a big international airline like AAL furloughs people they'll just have 100k+/year pilots going block or better as they zig zag all over the sky and sponge up fuel on domestic routes while the cheap domestic carriers have their 35k/yr junior pilots just looking for hours.

35k starting out pilot is only at a regional, which AAL uses a lot of themselves. All of the domestic carriers, except Alaska, don't even use regionals and their pilots start at 150k and ramp up to basically the same as a AAL pilot. So even without the help out outsourced regional cheepo planes and crews, the big domestic carriers are going to gain a ton of domestic marketshare from the big three (United,Delta,American).

This covid mess was a catastrophe for the international carriers, and *I feel* a unique opportunity for the domestic ones to pick low handing fruit off the behemoths.
 

Furry

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This covid mess was a catastrophe for the international carriers, and *I feel* a unique opportunity for the domestic ones to pick low handing fruit off the behemoths.

Hard to know how its going to sort out, and I definitely think there's money to be made if you're willing sit on airlines for some time. Generally I feel your assessment is correct, and regional/domestic focused carriers are more likely to win out in some way.
 

kegkilla

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Hard to know how its going to sort out, and I definitely think there's money to be made if you're willing sit on airlines for some time. Generally I feel your assessment is correct, and regional/domestic focused carriers are more likely to win out in some way.
I think the big airlines are the best long term investment opportunity on the table today. Invest today and double your money in two years. I think the likelihood of one of them declaring bankruptcy is about the same as one of the big banks going under.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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I think the big airlines are the best long term investment opportunity on the table today. Invest today and double your money in two years. I think the likelihood of one of them declaring bankruptcy is about the same as one of the big banks going under.
While i tend to agree, there is a fly in the ointment. You have to pick the right airline. Pick the wrong one and they are probably bankrupt. I think at least 3 US carriers file at some point.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Somewhere, out of sight of everyone, Zuckerberg actually showed some emotion and smiled.

Screenshot_20200710-134847_Twitter.jpg
 
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Locnar

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I think the big airlines are the best long term investment opportunity on the table today. Invest today and double your money in two years. I think the likelihood of one of them declaring bankruptcy is about the same as one of the big banks going under.

Its the big airlines that all went bankrupt after 9/11. And if one goes bankrupt, the others will actively SEEK to go bankrupt because they cannot let their competitor be the only one that sheds debt (and pensions in the case of the last round of bankruptcies) and has a judge modify all their labor contracts in their favor.

Airlines are a whole different animal.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Its the big airlines that all went bankrupt after 9/11. And if one goes bankrupt, the others will actively SEEK to go bankrupt because they cannot let their competitor be the only one that sheds debt (and pensions in the case of the last round of bankruptcies) and has a judge modify all their labor contracts in their favor.

Airlines are a whole different animal.
I think airlines can be a good trade with all the volatility right now. In and out grabbing 3-5% a trade over a few days. As a long term investment I would wait to see how the landscape looks in 2021. I do own DAL but got caught on the wrong side of the trade. I am making some money on it selling covered calls until I can bail on it entirely.
 

Jysin

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I had quite a few DAL shares on an order this morning at $25.30 ps. Chickened out of the execute button. It's currently $27.20. That's nearly 7% missed on a day trade.

Can't complain though, as I have made 5 figures doing the same over the last month.

Long term, I also see the airlines as win. The coming weeks earnings reports will be brutal overall for most of the market, so just waiting to see how Q2 earnings affects everything before making some big buys.
 
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Locnar

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As i've said half my yolo account is airlines, but I think everyone will do better than AAL and to a lesser extent UAL. I own some DAL, but I favor the purely domestic carriers for the reasons i've given in this thread.
 

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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Meanwhile Southwest and jetBlue won't be furloughing at all and jetBlue just announced a total move from Long Beach (that dumpster fire of a nimby airport) to LAX where they must of gotten more gates and promise to expand to 70 flights a day in the coming years. They have also moved in on EWR expanding service.

I said in the beginning, the domestic carriers are really taking advantage of this covid shit to gain marketshare while the international carriers are reeling. United sent out furlough warnings to thousands.

Whut?

LGB is great and I was gladly paying extra $100-200 per flight to fly domestic and avoid the LAX nightmare
 

Sanrith Descartes

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For anyone interested in SHLL/Hyliion stock play, options are now available vs just buying stock.
 

Indyocracy

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I am taking my profits from SHLL and running a call, strike of 30 for end of August.
 
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