MTG thread

enzie_sl said:

My advice is based on the assumption that people actually want to, you know, play the game for the next month or two. If you are only interested in the financial aspect of the game, then yes you will save a small amount of money waiting 1-2 months before buying any cards. But, that's true for every set, as you can just wait till MTGO redemptions hit and singles bottom out. Most people don't want to quit playing magic for that much time after a new set comes out, however. So, when faced with either buying singles at inflated prices or cracking packs, cracking packs is the more sound strategy at this time.

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C'mon. Is that really the choice? If you wait for better prices you are quitting the game? I start buying cards again and showing up to prereleases and FNMs and by your standard I've quit.

I'll narrow my cold water. I don't think anyone is hurting themselves by going onto eBay and buying boxes at 104 with free shipping but if this turns into a thing where people start buying packs at prices greater than MSRP based on a shortage story they are being foolish. The narrative I see forming and how quickly it is forming and the kind of behavior it encourages is what I am taking issue with.

Shortages will be very short term. It's just going to be stores running out of their allocations for the week. They'll get more next week. That allocation might even sell through as well. But they'll keep getting more every week so it's not like it's a real shortage like back during Legends or something.

Mist_sl said:

I think these foil fetches will end up higher once people start adding them to the mix in Modern mana bases. People aren't really brewing much Modern atm with no big events coming up.

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Only if this starts encouraging people to actually foil modern decks. So far the habit hasn't caught on like it has for legacy. I suppose because the modern meta does change a little bit faster.

I bet Seige Rhino would've been $14 if it wasn't for so many people buying product to get fetches. Even so, I bet Seige Rhino becomes like some new Brushhopper. Just wait and see.

Morrow going out on a limb there.

I don't know about 16 but I feel foolish not buying some when they were under 2.50

Arbitrary_sl said:

C'mon. Is that really the choice? If you wait for better prices you are quitting the game? I start buying cards again and showing up to prereleases and FNMs and by your standard I've quit.

I'll narrow my cold water. I don't think anyone is hurting themselves by going onto eBay and buying boxes at 104 with free shipping but if this turns into a thing where people start buying packs at prices greater than MSRP based on a shortage story they are being foolish. The narrative I see forming and how quickly it is forming and the kind of behavior it encourages is what I am taking issue with.

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I think you've got a different experience towards playing the game, and are reading a bit much into some comments about the supply.

Most players play standard, they want playsets of the cards they need for the deck they want to play. For many of them, they are jumping between at least 2 different deck lists right now, and will end up settling on one after the Pro Tour, but that's weeks away. Just playing a pre-release and a draft won't get them enough cards to make either of the decks, so they have to buy a box and/or singles right now. They can't wait 3 weeks to pick up the cards they need or they won't be playing FNMs during that time.

The shortage isn't going to be so extreme that packs sell for more than retail, no. There will still be enough, nationally, that someone will have stock and undercut anyone who tries. It's just in local areas, and for those who want to crack dozens of boxes searching for fetches, that the shortage will impact. It will also slow the 'crash' of the non-fetch cards. If there was unlimited product in stores on day 1 for the $95/box price (about 25-30% off retail), yea it would absolutely crash every single card in the set.

Worst case scenario, stores end up limiting people to 1-2 boxes each week, so that one shark/financial guy who wants 12 boxes loses out on cracking for ebay.

enzie_sl said:

You've clearly trolled anyone who is buying extra cards now in fear of their not being stock over the next few weeks, which is a totally reasonable response.

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enzie_sl said:

The shortage narrative is legit.

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This is the kind of sentiment I was in opposition to, especially coming from someone on the retail side. If you want to scale back to "the worst thing that happens is you can't roll in and buy two cases" that's fine with me.

enzie_sl said:

It's just in local areas, and for those who want to crack dozens of boxes searching for fetches, that the shortage will impact. It will also slow the 'crash' of the non-fetch cards. If there was unlimited product in stores on day 1 for the $95/box price (about 25-30% off retail), yea it would absolutely crash every single card in the set.

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If there aren't any boxes on the shelves than that means all of those packs have been opened and all of those cards will be in circulation. I don't know why you think that means that cards will decline in price slower than if there was unsold product sitting on the shelves. There's a large chunk of cards in this set that aren't going to lose value (with continued price increases far more likely) but most of the set is going to trend downward.

This is basic supply/demand. Having an unlimited supply of product is not the same as their being unsold product on a shelf.

If demand is 10,000 units, and 5,000 are shipped, there's more demand then supply. The difference is significant enough that the price needs to be raised to reduce demand. If 9,000 units are shipped, it's still higher, but not as drastic, so the price won't change much. If 12,000 units are sent, 10,000 is still sold and 2,000 sit on the shelves. If 20,000 units are sent, the different is drastic enough that stores now reduce price to increase demand to move the extra 10,000.

I'm saying that demand from all players is significantly higher then supply on day one, but there's enough players like yourself that are not getting boxes on day one to make it so the difference will simply mean some people will have trouble buying packs/boxes in the first weeks or the store won't sell it for less then retail which will also discourage some buyers. If they shipped out an 'unlimited' supply immediately, the lower price point of 90-95 per box would hold. You'd then see an exponentially higher amount of boxes sold versus what is actually going to happen, and it's already going to be a large amount.

So, by there being less supply then total demand, it will inflate the price of the singles that are opened. Just because a ton of packs are opened does not mean single prices go down. It has to be more packs opened then players who want the card, so there is more copies of a card then is wanted.

There's also more players playing the game if there is that many packs being opened, which increases demand for those same cards and creates an equilibrium. No, that is not a hypothetical situation, there's a lot of recent 'quitters' and casual players that are coming back to magic because of this set, it's not just the Legacy/Modern fetch seekers and current players causing the spike in demand. In fact, the one thing I've realized from working at a store and coming from a competitive player's viewpoint previously, is that casuals (players/buyers/collectors) are a WAY larger group then most players realize. Like, they make up the majority of the market really. The sales of this set are being driven more so by casuals and players who never go past the occasional FNM, then legacy/modern fetch seekers, it's just they don't go post on the internet about it. I've lost count of how many times I've tried to explain why the fetch lands are even good to those players. They don't get it and many of them traded in all their fetches from the pre-release just to play more pre-releases or buy planeswalkers.

I mean, Return to Ravnica was the highest selling set at the time, and it's singles didn't all plummet in price.

It reduces variance in price spikes by having more packs opened and more players out there, but all card prices don't drop just because more packs are opened. The packs being opened are (mostly) by players who want the cards. More packs being opened is mostly a signal of more people playing at that time.

This whole problem started from you equating 'shortage' with 'a drought of cards for months on end'. Whereas I saw it as simply meaning you aren't guaranteed to walk into your LGS and find the product at all times and it will probably be a month before that settles, which is what most people talking about a shortage are referring to. Basically, if you are someone who normally buys 2-3 boxes, but spread out over a month or two, it's best you get them up front if you can afford it. The fetches are the closest thing we've ever had to a guaranteed investment in magic.

enzie and Arbitrary I think you're both right and each of us has to make our own decisions on when to buy. The thing is enzie is spot on saying we are talking about hypothetical situations because we just don't know what they've done in preparation of high demand (they know this is going to be the biggest run in history after reprinting the best lands in the game after a dozen years). And trade/sell prices are high, which won't fall initially due to limited supply. Arbitrary is right that price of the vast majority of these cards will fall off a cliff in the medium term, including stuff that is getting significant hype and seems like the next big thing. There is exponentially more demand for fetches than anything else and, failing WotC not printing to meet demand, it will be met.

I've experienced both ends of the spectrum - I was around when Arabian Nights/Legends were like gold dust and I was around when Fallen Empires print run was so overprinted it nearly killed the game. Difference between this and Fallen Empires is this has cards that will 100% retain value and not just fetches, but foils and a small number of Mythics. (I was also around for Revised and believe it or not back then when folks opened a dual land they were disappointed that they got it in their rare slot).

One thing with the pre release - and I've seen it before from Carte Mundi/WotC and folks are reporting it on the internet this week - is that the randomization was not as good as it could be. Some folks open small number of packs and get drastically more fetches than average, other folks opening lots of packs and not getting any. One guy on Salvation opened 100 boosters and got two fetches. I know all about the law of averages, but this issue has been a problem with this game in some past releases. I don't trust them to get it right. Law of averages opening a case you should get 17-18 fetches but honestly you might get anything from 5-30 with these guys.

Opening boxes is a shit shoot. It's down to luck. I guess my bottom line would be :

i) if you're a player take your spend for the next few months and blow it up front (enzie);

ii) if you're buying singles to collect or hold and if you can't trade or sell over the next few weeks don't touch the majority of them until November time because they will fall off a cliff price wise (Arbitrary);

iii) most of us are going to do the following no matter what the rationale - if you just like that kid at Christmas feel go nuts buying boxes/cases and spend twice what you can afford. Average guaranteed value is there like no other set in MtG history. It's still down to luck and trusting them to randomize effectively.


I do think there will be a shortage of boxes which most players won't have experienced before for a number of weeks and into next month. Hype and potentially prices will only grow in the next few weeks. Don't buy into it. It is probably short term (not 100% guaranteed IMO, but 90% and then only for a handful of cards). Honestly we are in unknown territory given the vast majority of players would like a playset of the fetches and how long they have been amongs the most sought after card by players.

If people are reporting that, then the randomization is working perfectly. What people really want is non-randomized boxes, which they did for a very long time to prevent such high variance. But, then the box mappers figured it out and the community bitched about that, so they've had to go back to true randomization of boxes to thwart them. Unfortunately, with true randomization, the law of averages only applies over very large numbers (100s of boxes). You can easily get a super crappy or super awesome box. Getting 0 fetches in one box, and then 9 in another is exactly what happens if things are truly random.

enzie_sl said:

If people are reporting that, then the randomization is working perfectly. What people really want is non-randomized boxes, which they did for a very long time to prevent such high variance. But, then the box mappers figured it out and the community bitched about that, so they've had to go back to true randomization of boxes to thwart them. Unfortunately, with true randomization, the law of averages only applies over very large numbers (100s of boxes). You can easily get a super crappy or super awesome box. Getting 0 fetches in one box, and then 9 in another is exactly what happens if things are truly random.

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Yeah, I said randomize effectively - I understand the law of averages and the bell curve (I have degrees in IT and Electronic Engineering). What you are stating is statistically sound - what I am talking about goes beyond that and it is something that WotC have had problems with in the past. It got so bad at a couple of points that they did redemptions/compensation. eg during Legends in the UK you could mail in any uncommon to their office (in Scotland then, I think Edinburgh - or I may be thinking of their distributor) and choose any uncommon to replace it. Yes you could send them four abominations and get four Mana Drains from them. Personally I've had six boxes with no uncommons and only rares in their place.

Maybe it's ancient history, to be fair. To be honest I didn't even know Carta Mundi stopped printing cards for them in the Bronze age (I only just looked it up), so I suck.

It is ancient history. Comparing current MtG printing policies to what happened when Legends released is pretty useless.

enzie_sl said:

So, by there being less supply then total demand, it will inflate the price of the singles that are opened. Just because a ton of packs are opened does not mean single prices go down. It has to be more packs opened then players who want the card, so there is more copies of a card then is wanted.

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It has a lot more to do with perception than basic supply/demand. There are some fairly arbitrary price breaks for "good cards" that have more to do with human psychology than actual demand. The vast majority of prices in Khans right now are based on impulsivity rather than actual market forces. A month from now when all but fetches and a half dozen rares have dipped below a dollar you'll see what the market is really getting behind. Right now it's the wild west, and prices are pretty much just about what someone is willing to pay in the moment. No one wants to miss the next Rabblemaster/Courser/Reckoner/Thragtusk, but most of us will.

The smart money, and I'm only speaking in terms of economics for people who care more about growing their collection affordably than winning week 1, is in staying out of the way. Cracking packs on a scale that an individual can manage it is a loser's bet at retail (at wholesale it's a slightly different story). Most of the really good pick ups have already started to rise, but you can pick your trade targets and get in in the third floor this week at FNM, or take the elevator to the top with everyone else once the results are in on Sunday.

I'm going to be keeping an eye out tomorrow for Crackling Doom, End Hostilities, Empty the Pits and Mantis Rider more than anything else. They're still flying under the radar, but Crackling Doom in particular I think has a lot of break out potential if the Butcher decks catch on.

That's stupid. They're burning a customer for life over six bucks? Ridiculous.

Thatsucks. I was already a bit worried about a few of the cards I preordered that have risen significantly and now someone I know has gotten the bus.

Heylel_sl said:

That's stupid. They're burning a customer for life over six bucks? Ridiculous.

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I ordered some stuff for a Modern deck from TCG and everything showed up and in proper condition but from Mist's one experience I'll not ever use that company ever. If the told her to piss off that means they told a bunch of people to piss off and gamers are gossipy bitches.

That's why you just take the hit and move on. Very silly.

I ordered some FNM Despises when they got spoiled in Khans because I liked the artwork. Paid .90 cents each for em, and it took the seller about three days to process. That never happens, so it was pretty obvious they were waiting to see if they jumped as a result of the reprint. This is cheap promo card, not some killer staple, so the fact that they would waste time over what would never be more than a $2-3 card is stupid. They did eventually ship them once I opened a ticket with TCG.

Of course even more absurd is that some asshat decided to buy it out, so there are currently none in stock anywhere. It'll probably sit at $10 until people realize no one will pay that, and then settle back down.

I think Siege Rhino is pretty great but that's a slot with some competition. Polukranos is pretty damned solid and there is even Reaper of the Wilds for other 4/5s that do a bunch of shit. And Reaper is like fifty cents.