New World
- Thread starter zero_name
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oh wait, lol, i forgot this game sold for $40 not $60...
It may have lost money
they cleared probably 25-27 bucks per sale, and if they only sold 4 million copies that means they just about broke even ignoring opportunity costs.
so yeah colossal failure as a game and as a financial investment to boot. maybe it sold a few prime memberships? lol
It may have lost money
they cleared probably 25-27 bucks per sale, and if they only sold 4 million copies that means they just about broke even ignoring opportunity costs.
so yeah colossal failure as a game and as a financial investment to boot. maybe it sold a few prime memberships? lol
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swayze22
Elite
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I didn't see any sales figures/box count in their amazon 10-q, would it be in the 10-k you think?
or you think will they just not ever release them at this point?
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Hateyou
Not Great, Not Terrible
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MMO population estimated 16 million some time back (New World - MMO Populations & Player Counts). This would be wholly consistent with the concurrent player numbers in the first month - bearing in mind the drop-off rate initially was not excessive.
Given that not all boxes were $39.99 - there was a deluxe edition at $59.99 - I would not be surprised if sales were *well* to the north of $500M, and $1B is not out of the realms of possibility.
Either way, the ROI is perfectly adequate. Given that the title was a "box" cost item with no serious plans for ongoing monetization, I doubt their accounting would have been counting on this to be a substantial revenue stream going forwards.
Given that not all boxes were $39.99 - there was a deluxe edition at $59.99 - I would not be surprised if sales were *well* to the north of $500M, and $1B is not out of the realms of possibility.
Either way, the ROI is perfectly adequate. Given that the title was a "box" cost item with no serious plans for ongoing monetization, I doubt their accounting would have been counting on this to be a substantial revenue stream going forwards.
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Yeah there estimates are a total crock of shit. Read their methodology, based on launch numbers only and online "sentiment" at the time (prior to/ at launch)
If the game maintained 1 million peak players each month despite losing 90% of their players each month, then you could assume they must be selling 4 million boxes each month or 16 mil boxes sold. People buy it, play a month, then quit, only to be replaced with the next batch of sales.
But that didn't happen. They hit 900k on launch and then steadily declined at a rampant pace with near zero replacement population coming in. Game hit the discount bin by month 2? 3? And now they are sitting at around 4% of their initial pop 4 months in.
If the game maintained 1 million peak players each month despite losing 90% of their players each month, then you could assume they must be selling 4 million boxes each month or 16 mil boxes sold. People buy it, play a month, then quit, only to be replaced with the next batch of sales.
But that didn't happen. They hit 900k on launch and then steadily declined at a rampant pace with near zero replacement population coming in. Game hit the discount bin by month 2? 3? And now they are sitting at around 4% of their initial pop 4 months in.
jayrebb
Naxxramas 1.0 Raider
- 13,935
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What was funny about the box sales is they literally had 0 impact on the game itself.
There was no dramatic rise in players as the game gained steam after the first week sales. The 25m boxes was all FOMO. Box sales trended up while total players remained in the same ballpark as launch week for a period 7-10 days or so. It saw rise but not the packed house you'd expect from the breakneck sales. I'd like to know how many people bought the game hearing the "positive feedback" and never logged in. I'm very confident 25m people did not touch this game. Check UT's backlog for them.
But anyway, the box sales showed the market is ripe and ready for the "Next Big Thing"-- and it sure as shit ain't gonna be Ashes of Creation.
Ashes of Creation will not sell even 50% of 25m boxes.
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jayrebb
Naxxramas 1.0 Raider
- 13,935
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Down to 48k for prime time, the death spiral continues! If I had to make a guess, I'll take a final number of 15k
Sad to hear, and I guess I'll eat my words on that 70k
I saw how serious Asmongold and other influencers still are about the game, and I figured the diehards would continue to support the latest patch.
The game has some things going for it I just hope it doesn't get written off completely as failed design. I.E. dev houses aren't looking at it saying "well it had simplified combat, and players clearly don't want that" As cited by Asmon and some other influencers, the simplified combat was an attraction. They'd play just to play. Asmongold was gearcapped for months and just wanted to play something super basic regardless if the systems were fun or rewarding. Sometimes you just want to shut your brain off.
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The 25 mil was a troll post on their forums mocking smedley. The 16mil was a projection based on 4 months worth of opening month performance.
This game had a total of between 4 and 6mil users at most. I dont care how big your backlog is, 21mil ppl didnt buy the game and never once logged in.
jayrebb
Naxxramas 1.0 Raider
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This shit came out at the right time too. Nothing else to play, no mmos, not even seasonal BS like POE or whatever. Its too bad they didnt capitalize on it. But it was expected really from the betas. Unless they had a trick up their sleeve with some hidden ass content they were saving for launch, everyone, including me, was saying a month or two and you will be out.
In all honesty they should have shelved this shit for another year, did more end game testing and balancing while their content teams churned out more end game shit. The war stuff was great but in reality like what? 10% of the server participated in that shit, if that? PvP instance was OK, but they also needed like 2-3 more of those too. Cause having one and one alone and playing that over and over gets fucking boring as fuck.
The leveling experience was ok for the most part though. I had fun. I really liked the addition of target loot grinds. Only part it really slowed down in was the 50-60 range where they could have added like 10-20 more quests to round out that area. they also should have nerfed those town boards into oblivion too with leveling. That shit was aids and im betting most people quit just doing that shit over and over.
In all honesty they should have shelved this shit for another year, did more end game testing and balancing while their content teams churned out more end game shit. The war stuff was great but in reality like what? 10% of the server participated in that shit, if that? PvP instance was OK, but they also needed like 2-3 more of those too. Cause having one and one alone and playing that over and over gets fucking boring as fuck.
The leveling experience was ok for the most part though. I had fun. I really liked the addition of target loot grinds. Only part it really slowed down in was the 50-60 range where they could have added like 10-20 more quests to round out that area. they also should have nerfed those town boards into oblivion too with leveling. That shit was aids and im betting most people quit just doing that shit over and over.
RobXIII
Urinal Cake Consumption King
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I'm sure almost everyone had a ton of fun with it and got their $40 worth. Every one of us loves the initial new-MMO rush, newbie areas flush with people and we're all on the same trip figuring things out. It's why the time locked servers make money every time despite really old content.
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Mahes
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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The market is indeed ripe for a good game. Its not ripe for a shitty release. There are only 2 possible games coming within the next 4 years that have a chance of becoming a great game.
1. Riot's MMO.
Nothing has been officially released but it is assumed that an MMO is being developed around the world of Runeterra. Given the popularity with the characters and the success of Netflix's animation, it would make sense to try and build a game revolving around this world.
2. Ashes of Creation
This game is taking a while to develop but unlike Star Citizen and Camelot Unchained, this game actually looks like it could release. They have monthly reports with the fans that do show progress and the lead director states that money is not the issue(He has put his own money into the game). Money has already been shown to not always be a key indicator for success even if that were a minor issue. Now I would love for this game to come out tomorrow but I would also love for the game to mainly be ready to come out. This game still has years to go before it is ready. The last monthly had a moment where they dropped some info on Alpha 2. Alpha 2 will bring the level cap up to 35 which would include all classes if they manage to do it. I would be extremely surprised if we saw Alpha 2 3rd quarter of this year. I expect more to be in line with 2nd quarter next year given that a lot of the game will be presented with Alpha 2.
So, why do you hate a game with such a passion when many of the actual systems within the game have yet to be released? There are no other games on the horizon that shares the potential of Ashes of Creation. I am all for trashing a game, when the game is out. I disagree that the box sales could not be high. They could break every record. The "Potential" is there but as with any dream, it can be difficult to reach reality.
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Why, so they could completely change the core gameplay again?
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Cybsled
Avatar of War Slayer
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It isn’t hate, it’s the fact some of the core mechanics they have released thus far have a proven track record of driving players away - the biggest standouts are forced pvp + dropping loot on death, and losing a large amount of time and resources if your town gets destroyed in a war in addition to mechanics that let big guilds not let a town get too developed.
Forced pvp and dropping materials I’m sure Sorcerer is thinking “we get to farm RMT bots”, but clearly he never played Lineage2 because the RMT people will be the ones farming YOU using their fucking hive mind swarms.
And Shadowbane (and lesser degree New World) has shown that if you destroy and continue to destroy or take over cities that players work to build up, eventually they just quit the game because they feel like they can’t do anything to change that and dislike the uncertainty associated with that, especially if they feel the loss was due to shitty balance or bugs.